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Aside from a letter of condolence for the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has been silent during Israel's elimination of much of Hezbollah's leadership over the last two months, and its intensified raids on targets linked to the group in Syria.
Hezbollah was founded by Syrian intelligence and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the 1980s. Since a 2011 revolt against the President and the ensuing civil war, the militant group has been instrumental to the survival of the regime in Damascus. It poured personnel into Syria and supervised the formation of auxiliaries supported by Tehran, who captured rebel-held cities and expanded Iran's zone of control in the country.
But the costs of maintaining this relationship may be becoming prohibitively high for Damascus.
In the wake of the success of Israel's campaign to weaken the militant group, Israel has signalled it could be willing to attack the top echelons of Syria's military, possibly including Assad’s brother Maher. He heads the Fourth Mechanised Division, the best-trained and equipped part of the army, which is also seen as the closest unit to Iran.
“There has been too much silence from Damascus,” one Arab diplomat told The National. “The Israelis have been going after the very top of their enemies, and this is bound to worry Bashar."
“It is time for him to pivot” away from Hezbollah and Iran, the diplomat said. However, the prospect of retribution from Tehran along with increased anti-Western ideological fervour in the Syrian political system, including in the mind of the President, may prevent Assad doing so, he added.
In return for Hezbollah's role in defending the regime, boosted by Russian intervention in 2015, the Syrian military has co-operated with the group, and with Iran, reportedly setting up weapons facilities in the country. Israel has mounted thousands of raids on targets in Syria to destroy these facilities, as well as hitting supply lines running from Iran to Syria and on to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The group has also become a partner, together with the Syrian army – and the Fourth Mechanised Division in particular – in a multi-billion-dollar narcotics smuggling ring across Syria’s southern border with Jordan, according to Arab security officials. Both Hezbollah and the authorities in Damascus have denied involvement.
The alliance has stuck, despite a rapprochement with Mr Assad initiated by Arab countries in 2020 that offered financial flows to Damascus if it loosened its links with Hezbollah and stopped the narcotics trade.
Even the US, which toughened sanctions on the regime just before Joe Biden became president four years ago, devised a plan in 2021 to supply the Syrian government with energy produced in Arab countries. Washington abandoned the idea after Iran became a major supporter of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Despite its criticism of Israeli conduct in the Gaza war, Washington has supported the Israeli operations against Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria, although the US has taken a back seat in Syria since Russia intervened nine years ago.
Veteran Syrian political commentator Ayman Abdel Nour said the "Syrian regime will co-operate with anyone to save its head", but added it would not overtly turn against Hezbollah or Iran.
Syria is a "complicated and multi-layered" conflict, he explained, and pivoting would carry high risks for the regime. "You will not see Assad make a direct announcement to evict the militias, for example. But at one point, he could ask them to move out under the guise of redeployment, and only if he has guarantees [of protection] from Russia, the US and Turkey."
These three countries, as well as Iran, have carved out sometimes overlapping zones of control in Syria since the civil war began at the end of 2011. The war broke out after the authorities violently suppressed a peaceful protest movement demanding the President's removal.
A European diplomat following the Syrian file said that although Russia has differences with Iran over Syria, the leaders in Moscow do not want Mr Assad to turn against Tehran. The source pointed out that Iran and Syria have increasingly co-operated with Russia against Ukraine. If Mr Assad shows signs of changing course, Iran could replace him with Maher, who would be as determined as the President to "continue the reign of the Assad family".
"If Assad turns against Iran, he might tear the fabric of the regime apart, and even of his own family," the diplomat said. "But if the Israelis become really tough on him, and the Russians also become convinced somehow that he has to go, then he has no other choice."
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No more lice
Defining head lice
Pediculus humanus capitis are tiny wingless insects that feed on blood from the human scalp. The adult head louse is up to 3mm long, has six legs, and is tan to greyish-white in colour. The female lives up to four weeks and, once mature, can lay up to 10 eggs per day. These tiny nits firmly attach to the base of the hair shaft, get incubated by body heat and hatch in eight days or so.
Identifying lice
Lice can be identified by itching or a tickling sensation of something moving within the hair. One can confirm that a person has lice by looking closely through the hair and scalp for nits, nymphs or lice. Head lice are most frequently located behind the ears and near the neckline.
Treating lice at home
Head lice must be treated as soon as they are spotted. Start by checking everyone in the family for them, then follow these steps. Remove and wash all clothing and bedding with hot water. Apply medicine according to the label instructions. If some live lice are still found eight to 12 hours after treatment, but are moving more slowly than before, do not re-treat. Comb dead and remaining live lice out of the hair using a fine-toothed comb.
After the initial treatment, check for, comb and remove nits and lice from hair every two to three days. Soak combs and brushes in hot water for 10 minutes.Vacuum the floor and furniture, particularly where the infested person sat or lay.
Courtesy Dr Vishal Rajmal Mehta, specialist paediatrics, RAK Hospital
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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