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Long before Israel eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, he had anointed a successor to take over the Iran-backed organisation in such a scenario, said Arab security sources and political analysts who have tracked the militant group for decades.
The sources told The National that Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem nominally might take over as leader for an interim period before Nasrallah’s cousin, Hashem Safieddine, is named as his successor, although the secretive nature of the organisation and the sway of Iran over it could yield a different figure.
If Mr Safieddine, one of people closest to Nasrallah, is eventually chosen, it will be the first time a Hezbollah leader will have been succeeded by a close relative since it was founded by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Syrian intelligence in the 1980s.
“Nasrallah has created a successor in his image,” said one of the sources.
The two men, the sources say, worked closely to strengthen Hezbollah’s grip over Lebanon and expand it into a cross-border strike force in the past two decades. They also substantially augmented its financing through a multibillion-dollar-a-year drugs trade, with the Captagon amphetamine. The group has denied involvement in smuggling.
Little is known about Mr Safieddine, except that he has built a reputation as a day-to-day organisational and logistics figure. He studied Islamic jurisprudence in the Iranian city of Qom and his son is married to the daughter of Qassem Suleimani, the IRGC commander assassinated by US forces in Baghdad in 2020.
The organisation Mr Safieddine could be taking over is much diminished from the one he helped run before the Gaza war began almost a year ago.
Shortly after the war began, Hezbollah started attacking Israel with rockets, with the declared aim of relieving pressure on Hamas, another militant group supported by Iran. A series of Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria since October has wiped out many senior Hezbollah commanders and crucial field officers, as well as technicians who ran the groups communications network.
The Israeli onslaught shows no signs of relenting. On Sunday, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its southern front commander Ali Karaki, who had been leading the attacks on Israel since October. He was killed alongside Nasrallah in the Beirut air strike on Friday.
The continued elimination of the senior cadre has narrowed the choices left for succession.
Mr Safieddine's family ties to Nasrallah and Suleimani, who is still revered by Iran’s hardline IRGC, constitutes another advantage for him over potential rivals. Like Nasrallah, Mr Safieddine wears a black turban, symbolising descent from the Prophet Mohammed, giving him more ideological legitimacy than Mr Qassem and other senior figures who had not been killed by Israel, the sources say.
Aymen Abdel Nour, a veteran Syrian political commentator, said the Israeli strikes have not only killed operational commanders and Hezbollah technicians, but also figures in charge of maintaining ideological purity.
Any new leader, he said, would also have to deal with a Shiite constituency in Lebanon that increasingly doubts Hezbollah's acumen and regard for the safety of civilians, after a punishing Israeli retaliation that appeared to reveal that so much of Hezbollah's arsenal is hidden in their midst.
The Israeli attacks he said, could result in "the end of the Hezbollah era" and further "erosion of trust" between Hezbollah and its constituents, regardless of who replaces Nasrallah. The doubts also extend to Iran, which has done little to help its ally, Mr Abdel Nour added.
A member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet on Sunday said Iran should "think carefully" before "daring" to attack Israel, amid possible retaliation over the killing of Nasrallah.
"The entire Middle East, and Iran in particular, understands that Israel is not the country you want to mess with because the price you pay is very painful," Israeli Culture Minister Miki Zohar said.
Israel could force Nasrallah's eventual successor to review whether the group can still hold its confrontational stance towards its main foe while maintaining a regional reach in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the source said.
"There are no answers currently to which direction what has remained of this party will take," a Lebanese source said. "We are still at the beginning. It could get much worse for Hezbollah."
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
Left Bank: Art, Passion and Rebirth of Paris 1940-1950
Agnes Poirer, Bloomsbury
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona
CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID
1st row
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
2nd row
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes-GP)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
3rd row
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull Racing)
4th row
Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
Sergio Perez (Force India)
5th row
Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)
Romain Grosjean (Haas)
6th row
Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
Esteban Ocon (Force India)
7th row
Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)
8th row
Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
9th row
Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
Lance Stroll (Williams)
10th row
Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
arcus Ericsson (Sauber)
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ENGLAND SQUAD
Eoin Morgan (captain), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow, Sam Billings, Jos Buttler, Tom Curran, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Three ways to boost your credit score
Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:
1. Make sure you make your payments on time;
2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;
3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.
Company profile
Company name: Nestrom
Started: 2017
Co-founders: Yousef Wadi, Kanaan Manasrah and Shadi Shalabi
Based: Jordan
Sector: Technology
Initial investment: Close to $100,000
Investors: Propeller, 500 Startups, Wamda Capital, Agrimatico, Techstars and some angel investors
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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