Yahya Sinwar's appointment as Hamas leader entangles ceasefire talks in Gaza tunnels

Surprise move reinforces military wing of Palestinian faction and is expected to complicate negotiations with Israel

Yahya Sinwar, the new political leader of Hamas, gestures on stage during a rally in Gaza city in 2021. AFP

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Hours after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, speculation about who could succeed him started.

Attention quickly turned to members of the political bureau who were part of Mr Haniyeh’s close circle, leading indirect negotiations with Israel through Arab and western mediators.

All the names that emerged were officials living outside Gaza, including Doha and Beirut. But Hamas had a different and surprising plan: Yahya Sinwar, the most-wanted militant in the Gaza Strip, has been chosen as the new leader.

The daring choice looks set to have a significant long-term impact on the organisation itself, effectively merging the political and military wings into one body.

In the short term, however, the immediate impact is expected to be felt in the form of tougher and more uncompromising negotiations to stop the Gaza war.

“Israel killed the main negotiator, so Hamas replaced him with one of the most extremist figures. We will talk to you from the tunnels in Gaza from now on, this is their message,” said one Palestinian diplomat.

Hamas's new political leader is a founding member of the group’s military and intelligence wings and is believed to be the mastermind behind the October 7 infiltration of Israel that left 1,200 people dead.

He is the most-wanted militant in the Gaza Strip, with a $400,000 dead-or-alive bounty on his head.

The white-haired leader's whereabouts are unknown. He has successfully remained in hiding for 10 months since Israel declared the war on Hamas in Gaza that has led to the killing of more than 39,600 Palestinians. Israeli officials believe he is hiding in the extensive network of underground tunnels built by Hamas.

"The message to Israel is that Hamas’s decisions and policies will now be decided by the Al Qassam Brigades and from the tunnels,” a source with years of dealings with Hamas leaders, including Mr Sinwar, told The National.

His predecessor Mr Haniyeh, who had lived in Turkey and Qatar since 2019, was killed in an explosion at his residence in Tehran last week after attending the inauguration of Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Iran and Hamas blamed Israel but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s army has not acknowledged carrying out the attack that killed him.

Apprehension

The killing of Mr Haniyeh immediately pushed ceasefire talks in Gaza into a “dark tunnel”, according to a number of sources. The late leader had played a key role, liaising with mediators Qatar, which led to months of negotiations alongside Egypt and the US.

“Having Sinwar as the main point of contact and the top mediator now is likely to lead to tougher talks and harsher stances,” suggested the Palestinian source.

In Cairo, there are fears now that Mr Sinwar’s appointment might impede the already fraught negotiations because of his hardline position on continuing the war in Gaza, an Egyptian government official told The National on Wednesday.

“This is why Israel's policy of assassinations is one of the most inflammatory aspects of this war," said the source.

Had Israel “not killed” Mr Haniyeh, the situation would not have reached such a boiling point and the negotiations, which "took months of precarious work to put together", would not have been set back "to this degree", the official added.

A high-ranking Egyptian military official told The National the armed forces received the news of Mr Sinwar's appointment with "apprehension”.

The move is largely seen within the army's leadership as a rejection by Hamas of "peaceful" negotiations, with the war, which has cost Cairo billions in lost revenue from the Suez Canal, expected to continue for some time now that both sides have doubled down on their positions so strongly.

Shortly after Hamas announced the appointment of Mr Sinwar, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said negotiations to end the Israel-Gaza war have entered their “final stage”.

“No one knows what he’s talking about,” said a Hamas official. "Any decision regarding resuming the talks will come from Gaza now."

Hamas political bureau member Osama Hamdan confirmed on Tuesday night that the talks to stop the war would continue “under the supervision” of the group’s new leader.

“It is too early to talk about what the negotiation process will lead to,” he stressed. However, the team “that followed the negotiations under the leadership of the martyr [Ismail] Haniyeh will continue to do so under the supervision of Yahya Sinwar”.

Accepted by everyone

Despite not being seen in public months before the beginning of the war, Mr Sinwar has played a key role in the negotiations.

In November, Egyptian officials said he at times stopped taking calls for days, during the talks that led to a week-long truce, because of security concerns. He routinely had aides schedule calls from Egyptian and Qatari mediators, or Hamas leaders.

He used secure lines that he would frequently change and sophisticated jamming devices to avoid exposing his location to the Israelis. He often communicated with Hamas's field commanders through coded written messages.

Those messages are expected to intensify given his new role.

Mr Hamdan said the new chief was “unanimously” chosen to lead Hamas. “Mr Sinwar is accepted by everyone in the group and is the subject of consensus.”

For experts, the quick choice is a message about internal unity while prioritising its military approach.

The source close to the negotiations said they expected Mr Sinwar to "bridge the gap between Hamas in Gaza and the group’s structures in exile in Turkey and Qatar".

Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the election of Mr Sinwar as the leader of Hamas “must send a clear message to the world that the Palestinian issue is now completely controlled by Iran and Hamas”.

The move, applauded by Hamas regional allies – from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, to Tehran and others – comes amid fears of further regional escalation and a full-scale war, as Israel awaits Iran’s retaliation for the killing of Mr Haniyeh on its soil and Hezbollah’s avowed “punishment” for the assassination of its top military commander last week.

"Already the whole region is watching with bated breath for Iran's promised response to Haniyeh's assassination and choosing Sinwar is not going to quieten those fears," said the Egyptian official.