Live updates: Follow the latest news on US-Iran war
Gulf governments are increasingly signalling that any ceasefire in the Iran war must do more than halt the fighting – it must fundamentally diminish Tehran’s capacity to threaten the region with attacks, nuclear ambitions and destabilising proxy forces.
This message has been echoed by officials, publicly and in private. There are fears that ending the war too soon, or failing to address Iran’s military capabilities, could leave an “injured beast” on the region’s doorstep.
“US allies in the Gulf worry about a hasty settlement that leaves the region unstable, and that message has been conveyed to the Trump administration,” a US source told The National.
On March 13, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran’s missile arsenal was “down 90 per cent” since American and Israeli forces began strikes on February 28, and that its one-way drone attacks have decreased by 95 per cent.
“Iran has no air defences. Iran has no air force. Iran has no navy,” Mr Hegseth said at the time.
However, Tehran has continued to launch drones and missiles, particularly at its neighbours – attacking not only US interests, but also critical infrastructure, including airports, energy sites, residential buildings, tourist areas and power stations.
Gulf states expected Iran to retaliate against US military bases and had gone to great lengths before the war to assure Tehran of their neutrality. Those countries repeatedly said they would not allow their airspace or territory to be used in attacks against Iran. But the scale and scope of Tehran’s response surprised and angered them.
More than 4,700 projectiles have been launched at Gulf states since the conflict began last month, killing at least 30 people across the region.
Now, there is a growing sentiment among Gulf states that a ceasefire should not simply revert to the status quo ante.
'Ceasefire isn't enough'
This week, Qatar took the unusual step of distancing itself from the alleged talks between Washington and Tehran. Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts, before adding as a telling aside: “If they exist.”
Whether they exist or not, officials say the outcome is what matters most for countries in the region. UAE ambassador to the US, Minister of State Yousef Al Otaiba, wrote in a comment piece, published in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, that Iran must not be allowed to hold the UAE, the US and the global economy to ransom.
“A simple ceasefire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats – nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies and blockades of international sea lanes,” he wrote.
Since the start of the war, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil supplies is normally shipped, causing a surge in energy prices. Iran has told the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organisation that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the strait if they co-ordinate with Iranian authorities. In practice, however, only Iran's oil and a handful of ships from other countries have made it through.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and managing director and group chief executive of Adnoc, warned of the global consequences. "When Iran holds Hormuz hostage, every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy," he said.
Proxy attacks
On Wednesday, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan issued a joint statement condemning Iranian proxy attacks in the region. They demanded that Iraq act immediately to stop attacks from its territory by armed pro-Iran militias.
They also condemned attacks by members of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and other pro-Iran cells across the region, after several cases were uncovered.
Iran maintains a network of allied armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine. They are seen as a central pillar of its regional influence.
Lebanon was dragged into the war on March 2 when Iran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in retaliation for strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel responded with relentless attacks, killing more than 1,000 people. More than one million have been displaced in the country, the International Migration Organisation said. Hezbollah has also been involved in “terrorist plots” against Kuwait and the UAE, authorities in both countries have said.
Attention is now turning to Yemen. The Houthi rebels have so far stayed out of the conflict, but not because their leaders have become pacifists. They have not abandoned their militant rhetoric in support of Tehran either. Observers say Iran may be reserving the Houthi “card” as a strategic lever for future use.
That may come soon. Iran could open a new front in the Bab Al Mandeb strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported on Wednesday. The Houthis have previously launched attacks near the Bab Al Mandeb strait, which lies between Yemen and Djibouti.
This came after reports the Pentagon is planning to send thousands of troops to the Gulf to give US President Donald Trump more options to order a ground assault. Two contingents of Marines are already on their way.
Trust between Iran and most Gulf states appears to be deeply strained, with little expectation of a quick recovery.
Last week, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said Iran “is no longer a strategic partner – it has never been”. It could have been one “if it had taken a different course", Prince Faisal added.
Similarly, Reem Al Hashimy, UAE Minister of State for International Co-operation, said the future of UAE-Iran ties remained on hold. It is "too early to decide what Iran will look like down the line for us to come to that type of conclusion", she said.
“The UAE has always maintained a very measured approach, a very restrained approach, but also an approach that won’t allow itself to be a victim of constant attack,” she told Sky News.
