Gulf states grow wary after Iran's attack on Qatar tests regional detente

While Tehran described the strike as an act of 'self defence', the barrage pierced a long-standing regional red line

A Gulf-US Summit was held in Riyadh on May 14. Getty Images

Just over a week after Iran launched a missile strike on the US-operated Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Gulf countries are walking a diplomatic tightrope, voicing concern over Tehran’s actions while carefully keeping the door open for engagement.

The attack, which came in response to US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, was publicly condemned by all Gulf capitals. While Tehran described the strike as an act of “self defence” and took precautions to avoid civilian harm, the barrage pierced a long-standing regional red line: direct military action against a Gulf state’s territory.

For many in the region, the strike revived an uncomfortable question: can Iran truly be a partner in regional stability?

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others have sought closer relations with Iran over recent years in hope of fostering calm. But Iran’s strike in Qatar could undermine efforts by Gulf states to bring Tehran in from the cold, based on the premise that engagement would lead to a more secure region.

Though the 19 missiles caused no casualties or damage to Qatari territory or the airbase, the symbolism was clear. The full-throated condemnations from Gulf states reflected anger, but the absence of further escalation suggests that warming ties with Iran may have been a shock absorber.

“The Iranian attack on Al Udeid Airbase was seen in a negative light by the Gulf countries. Although it was just a performance for local consumption in Iran, the Gulf doesn't want the Iranians to perform at their expense,” Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi told The National.

“Gulf states were very clearly irritated and wanted to send Iran a strong message that this sort of performance is unacceptable. That said, I believe both the Gulf countries and Iran remain committed to maintaining civilised ties, and that engagement will continue.”

The Saudi-Iran detente, brokered by China in 2023, was always based on fragile trust and a mutual desire to reduce tension. Despite the latest setback, Riyadh is unlikely to abandon the agreement outright. Saudi leaders probably calculate that keeping open communication channels with Tehran still serves their interests.

The detente has yielded tangible dividends: cross-border attacks by Iranian-backed groups on Saudi territory have subsided, and tension in Yemen has eased, allowing Riyadh to focus on domestic priorities, including the economic transformation outlined in Vision 2030.

On Sunday, Saudi Minister of Defence Prince Khalid bin Salman received a phone call from the Iranian Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Abdolrahim Mousavi, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

“During the call, they reviewed bilateral relations in the defence field and discussed regional developments, as well as efforts to maintain security and stability,” said the SPA.

Maj Gen Mousavi replaced Mohammad Bagheri, who was killed last month in Israeli strikes as part of the conflict with Iran.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan received a written message from his Iranian counterpart regarding bilateral relations and ways to enhance them across all fields, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.

From Tehran’s perspective, the attack on Qatar was not intended to damage Gulf relations.

“Fortunately, our relations with our neighbours in the southern … Gulf were not affected by this attack,” a Tehran-based analyst close to the Iranian government told The National. “The necessary co-operation with the state of Qatar took place beforehand. We convinced them that this attack was in no way an attack on the territory and sovereignty of Qatari soil, but a legitimate attack on American interests.”

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran would respond to any future US attack by striking American military bases in the Middle East, in his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel. He said that his country had “delivered a slap to America’s face”.

A passenger plane flies over Qatar at sunrise on June 24 after a brief closure of the country's airspace. Reuters

China’s role

The latest escalation has also put a spotlight on China’s role. As the mediator of the Saudi-Iran agreement, Beijing had placed itself as a stabilising force in the region. But observers say that its role has remained largely symbolic since the 2023 accord.

“China doesn't seem to have played much of a role in the recent escalations and appears to have adopted a non-interference posture,” said Mr Shihabi. “That may reflect the limits of China’s influence over Iran.”

Zhou Rong, a senior analyst at Renmin University of China, said that Beijing is co-ordinating with Gulf countries, including the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to “make things better”.

“China has a positive influence over Iran, but it will help it within its own capacity,” said Mr Zhou. “Beijing may also offer a platform for Iran and Israel to settle tensions through direct talks if needed. China maintains normal – even good – relations with Israel, and even better ones with Iran.”

Last week, Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, said that while Gulf states strongly opposed the Israeli war on Iran and actively worked to de-escalate hostilities, Iran still attacked the sovereignty of Qatar.

“Today, as we turn the page on the war, Tehran remains called upon to restore trust with its Gulf neighbours, which was damaged by this aggression,” Dr Gargash wrote on X.

The Tehran-based analyst said: “Of course, there is work. One of the key elements of Iran's foreign policy agenda is advancing the ‘neighbourhood policy’. And we, as a large nation in the region, are certainly making efforts to address the concerns of our smaller neighbours and strengthen the level of relations, both officially and unofficially."