Resentments between France and Algeria have a deep history but with Paris promising a breaking point, the backdrop to Ramadan in 2025 could scarcely be less gloomy.
Once hard-right demands for a shake-up of ties with its former colony are now coming from government ministers. France has issued an ultimatum to Algeria over a key bilateral treaty following a media storm over Algiers' refusal to take back its nationals convicted of crimes. A list of around 100 Algerians to be expelled is expected to soon be shared with Algiers.
Whether the relationship can recover is now a hot topic for those affected most, the French Algerians who are trying to insulate themselves from the growing political storm.
On a chilly evening at Paris' Great Mosque in the upscale 5th arrondissement, Noura, a 52-year old French-Algerian Parisian school administrator, pointed at President Emmanuel Macron's weakening grip on power after an unpopular call for snap elections last summer. "It's a dangerous game to keep pointing fingers at the Muslim community," said Noura.
For decades, Algerians in France have been associated with social unrest and terrorism - a stigma rooted in the country's colonial past. This has been further etched in collective consciousness with recent terror attacks carried out by Algerian nationals or their descendants, including Al Qaida affiliated Mohammed Merah, who perpetrated a series of shootings in 2012, killing three Jewish children.
In the political arena, Algerians have also become synonymous with illegal immigration, a favorite theme of France's increasingly popular far-right. They represented the largest number of irregular migrants arrested in France in 2023 - nearly three times more than the second ranking group, Tunisians - according to a recent Senate report that examined international agreements on migration matters.
Yet in a country where it is often repeated that 10 per cent of the population has links to Algeria, such narratives frustrate many. In the bustling Barbes neighbourhood in northern Paris, Farid, a 48-year old Algerian vocational trainer out buying Ramadan sweets, vented his exasperation. "Why is France so obsessed with Algerians? There's nearly as many Moroccans in France as Algerians, yet we talk of Algerians as if there was an invasion," Farid, who has lived over two decades in France, said. "I'm a teacher, my friend here is a company CEO. We're just trying to live our lives."
An ill-prepared decision
Franco-Algerian relations have long been turbulent, but the latest crisis erupted last July, when Mr Macron recognised Morocco's claim on the Western Sahara - a deeply sensitive topic for Algeria, which backs the Polisario independence movement. The move came just weeks weeks after a historic call for snap parliamentary elections, and both initiatives were widely criticised as hasty and ill-prepared.
Since then, Mr Macron has sought to reassert France's international standing, particularly in relation to Ukraine. But critics say that his tendency to make ill-judged unilateral decisions has eroded France's global influence. Algeria, in particular, viewed his Western Sahara announcement as a betrayal.
Following visits to the contested area by French culture minister Rachida Dati and Senate President Gerard Larcher, Algiers denounced France's stance, accusing it of projecting a "detestable image" as a "former colonial power [showing] solidarity with a new one." In 2024, Mr Macron had already diverged from the long-established UN position, which backs a referendum on self-determination in the Western Sahara, by throwing his weight behind Morocco's claim.
Further fanning the flames of discord has been Algeria's refusal to accept the expulsion of a number of so-called Algerian influencers living in France - a major embarrassment for Paris. Many have issued threats, including incitement to murder, against opponents of the Algerian government led by Abdelmadjid Tebboune. "Algeria wants to humiliate France," Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said after Algiers sent an influencer, who goes by the nickname Doualemn, back to France after he had already landed in Algiers.
In November, the arrest in Algiers of an admired 80-year old French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal, also a critic of Algeria, further upset Paris. A vocal critic of Algeria's leadership, Mr Sansal was detained on national security charges, a move widely seen in Paris as an attempt to silence free speech.
Knife attack
Last month an Algerian man illegally living in France attacked shoppers at a market, killing one and wounding five others with a knife and a screwdriver. It later emerged that Algeria had refused France's extraditions requests for the attacker fourteen times. France now needs to engage in a "power struggle" with Algeria, Mr Retailleau said.
Days later, on February 26, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou gave Algeria an ultimatum: take back Algerians expelled by France within "four to six weeks" or Paris would unilaterally revoke all agreements with Algeria, including a 1968 agreement that lays the foundation for Algerian immigration to France.
Algeria reacted with outrage, vowing immediate retaliation. Mr Tebboune dismissed the threat by arguing the 1968 agreement is an "empty shell", while also insisting it remain in place for symbolic reasons. He is known to have said that Algeria deserves 132 years of visas to France because of 132 years of colonisation.
Legal experts in France widely disagree with the "empty shell" argument, noting that while the agreement does grant Algerians special privileges. They include a fast-track access to a long-term visa for Algerians joining relatives in France. There is also no limit to how much Algerian students can work - it's maximum 60 per cent for other foreigners. Yet scrapping it could also open new opportunities for Algerians by allowing them to transition to standard immigration laws, which have witnessed major updates in the past decades, unlike Algeria-France agreements.
What is clear is that Algeria is unlikely to back down. Meanwhile, cracks have appeared within the French political establishment. Mr Macron publicly distanced himself from Mr Bayrou just days after his ultimatum to Algeria, saying that he was against France unilaterally ending the 1968 agreement though he has backed a renegociation - implying that both parties agree to talks. Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has also argued for a more moderate approach, further highlighting divisions among the government.
Self-censorship
These internal rifts are weakening France's position, says the one man believed to be the intellectual force behind the tougher stance on Algeria: twice former ambassador to Algeria, Xavier Driencourt.
In 2022, Mr Driencourt published L'Enigme Algerienne (the Algerian enigma), a book that irritated Algiers. Drawing on his seven years as ambassador, he painted a picture of a political class that publicly blames France for its woes while privately seeking favours - pressuring him for visas or for spots for their children at the prestigious French lycee in Algiers.
Meanwhile, he says, French politicians would never retaliate, fearful of provoking backlash from the sizable Franco-Algerian population. But Mr Driencourt dismissed this as a poor excuse. "It's a convenient political argument to say: 'oh la la, we are not touching it because Algerians in France will react'," he told The National over fruit juice in a cafe near the Louvre Museum.
The real issue, he argued, is self-censorship. French politicians should respond to Algerian provocations by ending the 1968 agreement, shutting consulates and banning Air Algerie flights. Above all, he insisted, France must stop announcing its moves ahead of time, given that Algeria offers no explanations for its repeated refusals to accept deportees. "We're very bad tacticians. They're much better," he said. "We're incoherent. In one month, Mr Bayrou will have his back against a wall."
Now 71 and retired, Mr Driencourt seemed to relish the attention his ideas have gained in political circles searching for fresh solutions to on an old problem. He ridiculed attacks on him in the Algerian press, which has vilified him as working for France's foreign intelligence service, while also manipulating Mr Macron.
Mr Driencourt was prompt to list the name of politicians that have sought his advice, including Mr Retailleau, whom he says has "copy pasted" his proposals, and center-left figures such as former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who recently wrote an op-ed advocating for the end of the 1968 agreement. France's far-right has also courted him, he said, but he has refused its offers to run in the recent parliamentary election.
Despite his growing influence, Mr Driencourt remains frustrated that the two most crucial decision-makers on Algeria - Mr Macron and Mr Barrot, both centrists - have not reached out. "They should have maybe thought from the beginning: what Driencourt says is not stupid," he said with a short laugh.
His analysis of Mr Macron's miscalculations aligns with Algerians that The National spoke to in France. He described the former banker as overconfident in his ability to solve foreign policy crises. "He must have thought that he done a lot of good-will gestures towards Tebboune for 7 years and got no result," Mr Driencourt suggested. "He made a cost benefit calculation and decided Morocco would bring him more. But he under-estimated Algeria's reactions."
Mr Tebboune, he says, will not forgive Mr Macron's positioning on the Western Sahara. "He feels betrayed and wants revenge. He wants to push Macron's head under water," he said. Neither the Elysee nor the Algerian consulate in Paris responded to a request for comment.
According to Mr Driencourt, Algeria sees itself as uniquely entitled to special treatment - unlike Tunisia or Morocco, which were colonies, Algeria was officially part of France. This, he argues, explains why Algeria remains attached to the 1968 agreement, which differentiates it from its neighbours, while also providing an "escape valve" for its frustrated youth.
Though rich in oil and gas, Algeria suffers from high youth unemployment and crumbling infrastructure. "The country is a pressure cooker," Mr Driencourt told The National. "It prefers its agitators to be in France rather than in Algeria."
Political symbols, no strategy
Another point on which Mr Driencourt appears to agree with some Algerians is that repealing the 1968 agreement, which has become a flashpoint in the latest tensions, would not have much impact. The agreement regulates arrivals to France, not deportations, meaning that its termination would do little to force Algeria to take back its citizens.
Many experts have argued that scrapping the accord would even benefit Algerians. Public law professor at Rouen University Vincent Tchen pointed out that the application of common law would simplify visits for Algerian retirees and improve access to talent visas.
Moreover, Algeria's 1994 secret agreement to accept its citizens deported from France also offers little leverage. "The 1994 agreement is extremely vague," Mr Tchen told The National in an e-mail. "As the current situation indicates," he wrote, pointing at figures that show that Algeria accepted only 47.3 per cent of its expelled citizens three years ago, "how can one sanction the violation of an engagement to readmit its citizens in case of expulsion? The response is diplomatic or military, not legal: it's a dead end."
It is precisely for their symbolic weight that many French politicians, aside from the hard left, have rallied around the idea of scrapping the agreements - though few seem to have a concrete plan for what comes next. Many point France's attempt in 2021 to pressure Algeria on returns by reducing by 50 per cent the numbers of visas delivered to its citizens in what became known as "the visas affair." Outside from triggering Algerian anger, the restrictions did not encourage Algiers to increase cooperation on returns.
"Algeria would likely further harden its position and take back even less of its own nationals," warned Thibaut Fleury Graff, professor of international law at Paris Pantheon-Assas University. "They're a bit stuck," he said, referring to the French political class.
Some politicians have tried to suggest alternatives, such as Olivier Becht, a former deputy minister of foreign trade politically who is aligned politically with Mr Macron.
Mr Becht was quoted in the Senate report on France's migratory agreements in his former role listing the government's arguments against ending the 1968 agreement: "Our military and security relations with Algeria could be affected by the denunciation of this agreement, with direct consequences for the security of France and the French, particularly in the fight against terrorism, criminal networks and illegal immigration […]," Mr Becht told the National Assembly in 2021. "Allow me to recall that Algeria is our second largest trading partner in Africa and that France is Algeria’s second largest trading partner. French companies and jobs would be indirectly threatened by the denunciation of this agreement."
Speaking to The National, Mr Becht doubled down on his skepticism. "I think that this showdown will not work because the Algerian government thrives on confrontation with France," he said. France must focus on its goal, which is that expelled Algerians must leave French territory. "We have another possibility: we could send the people concerned to a country other than Algeria," he said. This proposal has so far not been picked up by the government. Until recently widely seen as politically unfeasible, the idea of return hubs is now gaining traction at EU-level.
Farid, the sweets buyer in Barbes, shrugged at the idea of a change in status for Algerians. He supported the idea that criminals be kicked out, and anyway, facilities given to Algerians are vastly exaggerated, he argued. He pointed at his two failed requests for a visa for his mother to visit his family and sister, who are all French. "I'd be like my Moroccan or Tunisian brothers. It's no problem at all for me," he said.
