The UAE sharply cut its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports in July, with flows through the route dropping by more than half.
Exports through the strait fell by nearly 53 per cent to 950,000 bpd from 2.01 million bpd a month earlier, while shipments from Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman rose as the UAE leaned on its 1.5 million bpd bypass pipeline.
The UAE exported nearly 20 per cent less in July, with exports averaging 3.46 million bpd. The slowdown follows the unravelling of a 14-point initial agreement signed by Washington and Tehran on June 17, which briefly reopened the strait before a dispute over who controlled it. A wave of tanker attacks and retaliatory US and Iranian strikes have since disrupted traffic along the waterway again.
Ship crossings through the strait fell to a daily average of 18.7 in July from 24.7 in June, with the drop-off steepening in step with the collapse of the ceasefire, according to Kpler.
Fujairah, the export terminal at the end of the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline on the Gulf of Oman, sits outside the strait entirely. Volumes from there accounted for 2.28 million bpd for the month, up from 2.17 million in June.
Fujairah’s share of total UAE exports rose to about 66 per cent in July from about 51 per cent the previous month.
Oil loadings from across the Gulf's Hormuz-facing exporters also collapsed.
Combined monthly flow from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman averaged 4 million bpd in July, down from a prewar baseline near 19 million bpd to 20 million bpd sustained from mid-2025 through to February.
Volumes had already dropped to about 1.4 million bpd by May, amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, before the mid-June ceasefire briefly lifted the group's average to 4.8 million bpd in June. The recovery proved short-lived following the failure of the initial agreement.
The Gulf's top producers managed to sell more volumes in July through the Strait of Hormuz itself.
The region's biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, saw volumes through the strait rise 72 per cent in July to 740,000 bpd. Iraq's exports also rose 56 per cent, to 750,000 bpd.
Both figures were a fraction of prewar averages of 6.6 million bpd to 7.3 million bpd for Saudi Arabia and 3.5 million to 3.8 million for Iraq. Kuwait, which relies entirely on Hormuz for exports, saw volumes decline 36 per cent to 560,000 bpd.
While Saudi volumes through its eastern terminals have declined, it is maximising the full capacity of 7 million bpd along its East-West Pipeline, which has its terminal on the Red Sea at Yanbu. Exports from its west coast fell by a million bpd to 4.4 million bpd in July as resurgent Houthis in Yemen threatened and disrupted shipping. Pipeline flows exceeding actual exports suggest more crude is being held in storage rather than loaded on to tankers. With vessels going dark and shipments rerouted through Sumed and the Cape of Good Hope, inventory appears to be building up for export once the Red Sea is safe for transit.
Opec+ agreed on Sunday to raise output quotas by a further 188,000 bpd for September, completing the group's planned 2026 restoration among its remaining members. The increase is largely on paper. Saudi Arabia pumped 7.34 million bpd in June, nearly 3 million bpd below its implied quota of 10.29 million, as the maritime crisis keeps actual output well short of capacity
