Crude loadings through the Bab Al Mandeb strait plunged 36 per cent in two weeks, Kpler data shows, as Yemen’s Houthis revive shipping threats after imposing a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
Weekly crude loadings from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals – from its west coast ports and onwards toward Asia – fell to 6.1 million barrels per day in the week of July 13, from a peak of 9.5 million on June 29, according to Kpler. The west coast figure dropped to 2.79 million bpd from 4.23 million, while the Asia-bound flow fell to 3.32 million from 5.30 million.
"We are seeing a bit of a drop in Bab Al Mandeb. It's [more than] 1.2 million barrels a day now, from the Middle East and Asia side toward the Red Sea," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of Kpler’s crude analysis team.
The Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, blaming the kingdom's strike on Sanaa airport and a decade-long blockade of Yemen. Saudi Arabia has been diverting more than 70 per cent of its crude exports to Yanbu on the west coast since Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The embargo marks the most serious deterioration in relations between Riyadh and the Houthis since an informal truce took hold in April 2022, said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
"The Houthis are signalling that they are prepared to expand the confrontation from Yemen's territory into the Red Sea maritime domain," Mr Quilliam said.
The truce frayed after the Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport last week.
Yanbu has become Saudi Arabia's critical crude export outlet since the kingdom began rerouting around the Strait of Hormuz, said Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"Right now we are facing two pressures on two critical choke points for energy security," Ms Raydan said.
Houthi tanker campaign
The Bab Al Mandeb strait carries about 12 per cent of global trade and a quarter of global container traffic. Oil flows through the strait averaged 9.3 million bpd in 2023, before the Houthis' tanker campaign cut that to about 4.1 million bpd in 2024 and 4.2 million in the first half of 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Flows climbed back to about 7.4 million bpd in June, according to Kpler data. The higher volumes are a result of Saudi Arabia rerouting crude through its Red Sea terminals. With Hormuz already effectively shut since February, a full closure of Bab Al Mandeb could put a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply at risk.
"If the Houthis succeed in disrupting shipping through Bab Al Mandeb or around Saudi Red Sea ports, they would place Riyadh's alternative export route at risk. In effect, they would threaten both of the Gulf's main oil export corridors," Mr Quilliam said. Such a scenario would pressure oil prices and shipping and insurance costs, he added.
Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London, warned that the closure of the Bab Al Mandeb strait and the Strait of Hormuz would amount to putting Saudi Arabia under "strategic siege".
"The wider economic effect would be global," Mr Krieg wrote. "Disruption at Hormuz would constrain Gulf energy exports, while disruption at Bab Al Mandeb would damage Asia-Europe trade and remove ships from circulation through longer voyages around Africa."
Gaza war impact
Shipping companies and oil markets are watching the latest development warily. The Houthis' 2023-2025 tanker war completely reshaped global shipping. The Iran-backed group, which joined the Gaza War in late October 2023, began by assailing Israel-linked vessels before attacking other ships. More than 100 vessels were attacked, at least nine mariners were killed, four ships were sunk and two were seized, including the Galaxy Leader, which was held for more than a year.
Transit through the Suez fell by more than half and revenue from the canal dropped by about $6 billion in 2024. More than 2,000 ships were diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to three weeks to voyage times. Global shipping lines Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which control 15 per cent and 7 per cent of container capacity respectively, suspended transits within days of each other that December.
"If they begin targeting Saudi-linked vessels, oil infrastructure or ports, Saudi Arabia would face pressure to respond militarily, either directly or through Yemeni government forces," Mr Quilliam said.
The kingdom, he added, has spent years trying to extricate itself from the Yemen conflict and would probably avoid a full-scale return to war if it can.
The Houthis’ long-term impact on shipping through the Red Sea is still felt, with flows never fully recovering.
"They've established a new navigation order," Ms Raydan said, noting vessels still broadcast Chinese or Russian cargo on their AIS systems as a signal to the group.
Mr Quilliam said the practical effect of the new embargo is still unclear as the Houthis have not said how they will enforce it, but markets are likely to price in the threat.
"Even limited attacks on shipping can alter commercial behaviour and force vessels to take alternative routes," he said.
Kyle Fitzgerald and Jihan Abdalla contributed to this report from Washington.
