The fragile calm that has defined relations between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels since a 2022 truce is facing its most serious test, with a recent military exchange threatening to pull both sides back towards confrontation.
The escalation has exposed the unresolved tension beneath a ceasefire that never evolved into a comprehensive peace agreement. While Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis have avoided direct conflict since the truce took effect, they have failed to reach a final political settlement, leaving key disputes over Yemen's future and power-sharing unresolved.
The Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport on Monday evening, aiming at the capital of the kingdom's mountainous Asir region near the Yemeni border, where many Saudis escape the summer heat.
The attack came after air strikes by the internationally recognised Yemeni government hit Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing.
The Houthis blamed Riyadh, which backs the government, for the strike on Sanaa. The aircraft, operated by Iran's Mahan Air, was carrying the delegation as it returned from the funeral of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Direct flights between Tehran and Sanaa have not operated for more than a decade. Saudi Arabia has opposed their resumption, fearing they could be used to transfer weapons, military technology or Iranian advisers to the Houthis.
Mahan Air was designated by the US Treasury in 2011 for providing support to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Washington accused the airline of transporting operatives, weapons, equipment and funds to Tehran's regional proxies.
"The message was unmistakable: Iran was testing a red line, challenging Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government while attempting to establish a new reality on the ground," said Nadwa Al Dawsari, an associate fellow at the Middle East Institute.
The violence threatened to renew conflict on Saudi Arabia's southern border after Iranian drone and missile attacks aimed at its eastern regions and Riyadh subsided following an April truce in the Iran war.
On Tuesday, the Houthis said they had shot down a Saudi-operated reconnaissance drone "while it was carrying out hostile missions at dawn" over Al Bayda governorate.
"The truce is hanging by a thread," said Ms Al Dawsari. "It was never fully sustainable because the parties fundamentally disagreed on its nature."
She said Saudi Arabia viewed the arrangement as a ceasefire between Yemen's internationally recognised government and the Houthis, with Riyadh acting as a broker and guarantor. The Houthis, by contrast, considered it an agreement directly with Saudi Arabia and continued to reject the legitimacy of the Yemeni government, she added.
US backing
An informed US source told The National that Saudi Arabia briefed Washington before the strikes on Sanaa airport.
Responding to a request for comment, a US State Department spokesperson did not directly address contacts between Washington and Riyadh but said the US "stands firmly with Saudi Arabia against Iranian aggression, including Iranian-supported Houthi attacks, and remains committed to the kingdom's security and regional stability".
"Our core interests in the region include ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and preventing the export of terrorism. It is critical to continue efforts to counter the Iran-backed Houthis and other terrorist groups in Yemen who threaten these US interests," added the official.
A wider conflict with the Houthis could deepen regional tension and further escalate hostilities between the US and Iran.
It could also disrupt shipping through the Red Sea, an increasingly important route for some Gulf energy exports seeking to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has pushed its East-West Pipeline, or Petroline, to its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, rerouting crude overland from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the strait entirely.
Since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, shipping through Hormuz has been severely disrupted, affecting global oil prices.
'Inevitable' confrontation
The informal truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis took effect in April 2022 following Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The relative calm has continued as Oman has led mediation and dialogue efforts, alongside UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg’s work to advance the peace process.
Analysts say the latest escalation could mark the beginning of the collapse of the fragile arrangement. A Gulf diplomat briefed on the developments told The National that Saudi Arabia was prepared to respond to any attacks on its territory.
Mohammed Al Basha, founder of the US-based risk advisory firm Basha Report, said he expected Iran and the Houthis would probably try again next week to operate a direct flight from Tehran to Sanaa.
"If that happens, I expect the same response from the Saudi-led coalition," he said.
Mr Al Basha said both sides had exercised a degree of restraint. "The Saudi-led coalition ultimately allowed the Houthi aircraft to land at Hodeidah airport," he said.
"At the same time, the damage at Sanaa airport was largely limited to the runway, while the airport's infrastructure and equipment remained intact, meaning repairs could be completed relatively quickly.
"Instead of striking major airports such as Jeddah or Riyadh, they [the Houthis] targeted Abha airport. While the attack disrupted flights for more than 24 hours, it avoided the much greater escalation that would have resulted from an attack on one of Saudi Arabia's primary international airports," added Mr Al Basha.
The Houthis have been fighting Yemen’s government since seizing control of Sanaa in 2014. Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015, leading a coalition of regional allies to support the government against the rebels.
Ms Al Dawsari said the truce only postponed rather than resolved the conflict between the sides.
"A renewed confrontation is inevitable given the Houthis' long-term ambitions, refusal to share power and continued actions to reshape the domestic and regional balance of power in their favour."
