The US-Iran peace deal could embolden one of Iran's main allies: Yemen’s Houthi rebels, experts and officials told The National, as the 14-point text does not mention Tehran's support for regional militia groups.
The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, signed on June 17, gave the two countries 60 days to reach a wider deal to end the war. Key issues are Iran's nuclear activities, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But it excludes Iran's support and funding for regional militia groups, such as Houthi rebels.
Baraa Shiban, a Yemen expert at the Royal United Services Institute who has previously negotiated with the Houthis, said US President Donald Trump would want to finalise a deal urgently.
“I cannot see him putting extra conditions on the Iranians regarding their support for the Houthis or their activities on the Red Sea,” he told The National. “US negotiators, in general, tend to negotiate each file separately and cannot see the obvious links between them.
“A deal will likely embolden the Houthis and the Iranians' rhetoric towards US allies in the region,” he added.
Red Sea threat
The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, are a militia group that emerged during the decade-long civil war in Yemen. They captured the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, pushing the poorest country in the region into one of the worst humanitarian crises of recent times.
They were also able to disrupt international trade in the Red Sea during the brutal Israeli war in Gaza that erupted after Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. The Houthis stopped their attacks following a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025.
The group remained silent at the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, but eventually entered the war and targeted Israel. They first claimed a strike on southern Israel on March 28, using a ballistic missile, and attacked several more times after that using drones, rockets and missiles. Houthi rebels also threatened to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
The Houthis, over the years, have developed drones, mines, and anti-ship missiles, and their Red Sea attacks have forced major shipping companies to divert to alternative routes.
“The Houthis probably feel somewhat encouraged. From their perspective, Iran has shown that it can create pressure on the international community by threatening global trade through the Strait of Hormuz,” Ahmed Nagi, senior analyst for Yemen at the Crisis Group, told The National.
“They could seek to use their strategic position near the Bab Al Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea to increase pressure on the international community, mirroring Iran’s leverage in the Strait of Hormuz”, Mr Nagi said.
Iran has signalled that it may impose fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz as a way to pressure the US to stop their attacks.
A former British ambassador to Yemen told The National: “The suggestion that the Iranians will be able to charge fees for passage through Hormuz will encourage the Houthis to seek the same for the Bab Al Mandeb.”
Any such move would have a negative impact not only on Yemen but also on the region, he said.
UN hopes for peace
The UN believes the US-Iran agreement could create momentum for renewed negotiations and be an opportunity to revive Yemen's stalled peace process, Ismini Palla, spokesperson for the UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, told The National.
“Ultimately, sustainable peace in Yemen depends on the commitment of the Yemeni parties themselves,” she said, adding that the UN remains ready to support efforts towards a negotiated settlement.
Ms Palla said regional escalation since 2023 had added new layers of complexity, altered regional dynamics and hampered UN efforts.
Economic and military dialogues have been continuing, Ms Palla said, as they remain two of the major sticking points in Yemen's civil war. “Mr Grundberg has been clear that the Houthis must refrain from any actions that would drag Yemen into the regional conflict,” she said.
The ambassador told The National the country could make progress towards peace, but it would require Houthi rebels to really want peace, and that is “not at all clear”.
The rebels “could demonstrate this by releasing the detainees, and both the legitimate government and the Houthis need a deal which would bring economic benefits,” said the ambassador, who played a leading role in the peace negotiations.
Earlier this year, the Houthi rebels, alongside the internationally recognised government, signed a UN-backed agreement in Jordan to exchange more than 1,600 detainees.
