Downtown Cairo, Egypt. IMF has approved latest instalment of $12bn loan for the country. Momahed El Shahed / AFP
Downtown Cairo, Egypt. IMF has approved latest instalment of $12bn loan for the country. Momahed El Shahed / AFP
Downtown Cairo, Egypt. IMF has approved latest instalment of $12bn loan for the country. Momahed El Shahed / AFP
Downtown Cairo, Egypt. IMF has approved latest instalment of $12bn loan for the country. Momahed El Shahed / AFP

IMF greenlights third $2bn tranche for Egypt


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The IMF on Wednesday approved the third instalment of a US$12 billion, three-year loan for Egypt, bringing the total released to date to just over $6bn.

The IMF board approved the latest $2bn disbursement under the deal signed in November 2016, after a fund team last month praised Cairo's progress on "bold" economic reforms.

In order to obtain IMF approval for the loan, the country has implemented a set of drastic reforms, adopting a value-added tax, cutting energy subsidies and floating its pound.

But the IMF said the country still has work to do.

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"The outlook is favourable, but will require sustained efforts to maintain prudent policies and advance structural reforms to support the authorities' medium-term objective of inclusive growth and job creation," said David Lipton, the IMF first deputy managing director.

He said "reform of energy subsidies is critical for achieving the program's fiscal objectives", and to keep government debt on a downward trajectory.

And authorities will need to implement tax reforms and modernize tax and customs administration to free investment in other areas.

Since the 2011 revolt toppled former president Hosni Mubarak, the economy of the Arab world's most populous country has received multiple shocks caused by political instability and security issues.

The IMF said Egypt's economy is expected to grow 4.2 per cent this year, well above initial estimates, while the inflation rate, which exceeded 33 per cent in August, is declining and is expected to fall to 13 per cent by the end of 2018.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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