Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst day of the year on Wednesday. Reuters
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst day of the year on Wednesday. Reuters
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst day of the year on Wednesday. Reuters
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst day of the year on Wednesday. Reuters

Don't panic yet over the yield curve drama, stock analysts say


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An inverted yield curve may be a recession portent and evidence of generalised market chaos, but it’s no reason to cut and run in equities, was the near-unanimous view of professional equity managers.

While someone was obviously hitting sell Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst day of the year, it wasn’t these investors, who while trying to insulate their portfolios said they weren’t bailing. For the most part, fear of missing out continues to overpower fear of getting decimated.

We're not bailing, and we're not expecting all of a sudden something magic to happen.

“People believe that is going to cause a recession, that it’s only a matter of time. And in fact, what we find is that it takes quite a long time,” said Mariann Montagne, a fund manager at Gradient Investments, which oversees $2.3 billion (Dh8.44bn). “We have a lot of money to make between now and then.”

The basis for their gripe is the world’s sudden obsession with the relative altitude of interest rates. Yield curve inversion, while an ominous sign, didn’t exactly sneak up on anyone, they note, while concerns about slowing growth, the Federal Reserve and trade with China began buffeting markets months ago. It was back then, not now, that Lamar Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co, was raising cash and adding low-volatility stocks.

“We’re not bailing, and we’re not expecting all of a sudden something magic to happen,” Mr Villere, who helps manage around $2bn, said. “I don’t think anything fundamentally has changed for us based on the yield inversion.”

Cliched as it may be, managers with a longer-term horizon said the plunge, if anything, creates an opportunity to buy stocks. Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners, did just that in the past several days, using money he raised in July when markets were at an all-time high.

“It doesn’t mean I don’t own things like gold or more defensive positions that I can get more aggressive with,” Mr Browne said. “But I’ve redeployed that cash because I feel what I was looking for in terms of a little pullback has happened. I’m more of a buyer within the context that when I look across the positions I own, they’re all things that I feel like I can trade around.”

When the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields flipped 10 times since 1956, it preceded recessions. But never right away. The S&P 500 topped out anywhere from two months to two years later, data compiled by Bank of America strategists show. Gary Bradshaw, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management in Texas, is also a buyer.

“Just because the 10 year is less than two year, it doesn’t preclude me from adding to the Microsofts, Visas and Paypals of the world,” Mr Bradshaw, who helps oversee $1.5bn at Hodges Capital Management, said. “I’ve been sitting here buying attractive stocks that are beaten up, and I will continue to do that.”

It’s not like risk is new to the world. For months, trade tensions have been souring and signs that global growth is slowing have been cropping up. Angst was sparked anew on Wednesday after data showed Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter and Chinese retail and industrial numbers came in below expectations.

To Ed Keon, a managing director and portfolio manager at QMA in New Jersey, that’s a signal stock prices can go lower. He’s been cautious for a while and kept a neutral to slight underweight stock position. Now he’s waiting for a further drop to add to his portfolio.

“Prices aren’t to the point yet where they are just compelling, but the data today with the industrial data coming out of about Germany’s economy and Chinese industrial numbers wasn’t all that great,” Mr Keon. “We aren’t planning on making major portfolio changes until the prices are compelling.”

Timing the stock market decline following a yield curve inversion is a task for the brave of heart. Six of the last 10 times the yield curve flipped, the S&P 500 rolled over within three months. In the other four, the gauge didn’t top out until at least 11 months later, Bank of America data show.

Marshall Front, the chief investment officer at Front Barnett Associates in Chicago, is taking no chances timing the market decline. He reduced his stock position by about 2 percentage points one-and-a-half months ago, but not out of growth concern but because one of his positions started looking less attractive.

“Having a substantial equity exposure is still warranted, even though we have clouds that have built on the horizon,” Mr Front said. “Our investment policy and results are not going to depend upon whether we make a correct market timing decision. It’s about the item selection and about whether they fare the storms that definitely will be coming well.”

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Xpanceo

Started: 2018

Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov

Based: Dubai, UAE

Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality

Funding: $40 million

Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)

Miss Granny

Director: Joyce Bernal

Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa

3/5

(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

While you're here

Michael Young: Where is Lebanon headed?

Kareem Shaheen: I owe everything to Beirut

Raghida Dergham: We have to bounce back

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The Kites

Romain Gary

Penguin Modern Classics

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

Profile of MoneyFellows

Founder: Ahmed Wadi

Launched: 2016

Employees: 76

Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)

Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYodawy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarim%20Khashaba%2C%20Sherief%20El-Feky%20and%20Yasser%20AbdelGawad%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2424.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlgebra%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20MEVP%20and%20Delivery%20Hero%20Ventures%2C%20among%20others%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Facility’s Versatility

Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
 
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
 
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
 
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
 
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
 
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket

MATCH INFO

Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium, Malayisa
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD

* Second leg in Australia on October 10

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.5-litre, turbocharged 5-cylinder

Transmission: seven-speed auto

Power: 400hp

Torque: 500Nm

Price: Dh300,000 (estimate)

On sale: 2022 

While you're here
Set-jetting on the Emerald Isle

Other shows filmed in Ireland include: Vikings (County Wicklow), The Fall (Belfast), Line of Duty (Belfast), Penny Dreadful (Dublin), Ripper Street (Dublin), Krypton (Belfast)

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

Batti Gul Meter Chalu

Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates

The Sky Is Pink

Director: Shonali Bose

Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf

Three stars

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

In numbers: China in Dubai

The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000

Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000

Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent

10 tips for entry-level job seekers
  • Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
  • Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
  • Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
  • For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
  • Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
  • Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
  • Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
  • Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
  • Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
  • Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.

Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

Available: Now

CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
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Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches 

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

Results

5pm: Warsan Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Dhaw Al Reef, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer) 

5.30pm: Al Quadra Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mrouwah Al Gharbia, Sando Paiva, Abubakar Daud 

6pm: Hatta Lake – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Yatroq, George Buckell, Ernst Oertel 

6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adries de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel 

7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami 

7.30pm: Zakher Lake – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Alfareeq, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.