Global air passenger demand fell 3.4 per cent in April as a sharp decline in traffic linked to the Middle East conflict outweighed growth in other regions, according to the International Air Transport Association.
The industry body said demand for Middle East airlines plunged 46.6 per cent during the month, making it the worst-performing region globally and dragging overall passenger traffic into negative territory.
Excluding the Middle East, global demand would have risen by 1.2 per cent, Iata said in a statement released late on Thursday.
“The 46.6 per cent fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down, minus 3.4%,” said Willie Walsh, Iata's director general.
“The situation for air transport remains highly volatile,” he added, citing that the cost of jet fuel, which more than doubled in April, pushed airfares up.
The rise in fuel costs is creating a second challenge for airlines alongside weaker demand. Fuel is typically one of the industry's largest operating expenses and carriers are increasingly having to absorb higher costs, or pass them on to passengers through higher fares.
Jet fuel exports from five Gulf states fell by around 80 per cent in March during the Iran war as part of a wider disruption that wiped more than 10 million barrels per day from global oil supply.
Exports of the fuel used in aviation and related industries fell 79 per cent to 127,000 bpd in March, down from 605,000 bpd a year earlier, data from shipping intelligence platform Kpler showed.
Looking ahead, Mr Walsh warned the impact of higher fuel prices is likely to persist even if travel demand stabilises.
“Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand,” he said.
The figures underline the central role Gulf carriers play in international aviation. Airlines based in the region operate some of the world's busiest long-haul networks, connecting Asia, Europe, Africa and North America through hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha.
The conflict disrupted airspace across parts of the region, forcing airlines to cancel flights, reroute aircraft and adjust schedules. The result was a steep drop in passenger demand and available capacity.
Middle East airlines recorded a 46.3 per cent decline in capacity during April, while load factors edged up by 0.3 percentage points to 74.9 per cent.
By contrast, airlines in most other regions continued to report growth.
Latin American carriers posted the strongest increase in demand, up 13.9 per cent year on year, followed by Asia-Pacific airlines, where traffic rose 5.6 per cent. European carriers recorded growth of 4.9 per cent, while North American airlines reported a 0.5 per cent increase.
The April figures mark a sharp reversal from recent years, when global aviation demand had largely recovered from the pandemic and returned to growth.
Despite the setback, industry executives have signalled that the weakness is closely tied to geopolitical developments rather than underlying consumer demand.
The Middle East remains one of the most strategically important aviation markets in the world, with the region serving as a critical transit point for long-haul international travel.
The pace of recovery will depend largely on how quickly airspace restrictions ease and traveller confidence returns.
For now, however, a near-50 per cent collapse in Middle East traffic has proved large enough to push the global aviation industry back into contraction.
