Air India's 787 crash is a 'stress test' for Boeing's turnaround push

The deadly accident complicates Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg's early gains in restoring trust amid safety concerns

Boeing hit its 737 Max production target in May and had gained the approval of key customers in recent months. AFP

The deadly crash of an Air India 787 Dreamliner on Thursday will be a "stress test" for Boeing, which had made progress in rebuilding trust after a series of safety and production quality lapses.

At least 290 people were killed, including people on the ground, when the aircraft bound for London's Gatwick Airport crashed moments after taking off from Ahmedabad Airport, in western India, authorities said, in the world's worst aviation disaster in a decade.

The accident complicates the efforts of Boeing chief executive Kelly Ortberg in leading a complex turnaround of the company, after the US plane maker hit its production targets on the 737 Max in May and gained the approval of key airline customers in recent months.

"It is a defining stress test for Boeing's leadership, values and long-term licence to lead in global aviation," Linus Bauer, founder and managing director of consultancy BAA & Partners, told The National.

He said Mr Ortberg has made "admirable early progress: stabilising production, restoring FAA [Federal Aviation Administration] dialogue, and championing a cultural shift toward engineering integrity. But now, abstract strategy must meet operational accountability".

Regulators, airline customers and the flying public will now all be watching closely how Boeing's leadership handles the latest incident.

"His handling of this crisis – how he leads the investigation, communicates transparently, and embeds lessons into Boeing’s systems – will either validate or undermine the credibility of the turnaround narrative," Mr Bauer added.

No indication of a design flaw

Boeing's stock retreated 4.8 per cent on Thursday at the market close.

But aviation analysts said there are no indications of a 787 design flaw, given the plane was delivered to Air India in 2014 and had more than 41,000 hours of flying time.

"We don’t know much about this tragedy so far, but what we do know indicates that it’s unlikely to be due to the aircraft itself," Richard Aboulafia, managing director of Washington-based AeroDynamic Advisory, told The National.

"With around 1,200 [Dreamliner] aircraft flying, and 16 years of operational experience with no crashes, it’s unlikely to be a design issue. This particular aircraft is old enough to say it’s unlikely to be a manufacturing issue."

Some non-design related explanations may include a bird strike, maintenance error or human error, he added. Recovering the plane's black boxes – the electronic recording devices that store vital flight information – will provide a clearer picture.

The crash marks the first accident involving a 787 and little is known about the cause so far. The aircraft crashed in Ahmedabad shortly after take off.

The accident comes just before Boeing's top executives head next week to the Paris Airshow, where aircraft manufacturers typically announce big plane orders and showcase their latest products.

It will be a prominent topic of discussion at the biennial expo as Mr Ortberg completes nearly one year at Boeing's helm this August.

The Boeing boss, who had moved to Seattle to be closer to key manufacturing operations, has navigated the company through a labour strike and joined US President Donald Trump's delegation to the Gulf last month. He left the region with a huge haul that included a record order from Qatar Airways for up to 210 wide-body aircraft and a deal with Etihad Airways for 28 twin-aisle jets.

'Encouraging performance'

Before the crash, airline chiefs highlighted early signs of improvement in Boeing's production rates and ability to deliver quality aircraft, marking gains in rebuilding its reputation and customer confidence.

During an annual gathering of airline bosses held in New Delhi last week, top industry executives struck a more optimistic tone about indicators of progress by the embattled US plane maker in tackling jet quality breakdowns at its factories.

"I'm particularly pleased, and certainly, the feedback that I've received from all the [airline] CEOs, is that Boeing's performance is encouraging people," Willie Walsh, director general of International Air Transport Association, said at a Middle East press briefing.

"Everyone I've spoken to has been much more positive about the performance they're seeing from Boeing than certainly last year."

In May, Boeing's monthly orders surged to their highest levels in more than year, recording 303 plane deliveries, the most since December 2023. A large chunk of these were announced during Mr Trump's Middle East visit. It also delivered 45 aircraft last month.

These early signs of recovery come after a near-catastrophic accident at the start of 2024 plunged the company into crisis when a panel blew off on an airborne 737 Max operated by Alaska Airlines.

In May, Boeing rolled out 38 of its 737 narrow-bodies, hitting a key production target that signalled the manufacturing of its best-selling jet is back on track.

More predictability in deliveries

The company is focused on stabilising production based on its commitments to safety and quality standards, Omar Arekat, Boeing's vice president of commercial sales and marketing for Middle East and Africa, told The National last week.

Production stability is based on getting to the right rate that maintains the quality and safety commitments Boeing has pledged, while also meeting the delivery promises to its customers, he said.

"We've been increasing our production and we've been producing airplanes that have been meeting the quality standards that we and our customers are targeting," Mr Arekat said.

Asked when Boeing would ask the FAA to remove the production cap on the 737, he said: "We want to make sure that we are comfortable maintaining this rate, that we don't get ahead of ourselves and make sure all the KPIs [key performance indicators] are met at that rate and then we will consider talking to the FAA about the next level of production."

Boeing is promising its customers more predictable delivery schedules after hand-over delays have left airlines exasperated about the inability to plan ahead and seize growth opportunities.

"Customers have appreciated that slowly but surely we're getting there and meeting our commitments more predictably," Mr Arekat said.

Emirates airline president Tim Clark has recently been more vocal in his criticism of Boeing's shortcoming as he faces a six-year wait for the debut of the 777X aircraft.

But last week, Mr Clark said he is getting "clearer messages" from Boeing's leadership about that programme.

“I'm quite impressed with the energy, the concern they have about getting that done … that's why I was cautiously optimistic because they weren't just talking the talk, they were walking the talk,” Mr Clark told reporters in the Indian capital.

Mr Ortberg has vowed to address safety and quality concerns and rebuild trust with regulators, workers and customers.

Regional customer Oman Air is taking delivery of two 787 aircraft this year and then more widebodies in 2027. It also has a handful of 737 Maxs to be delivered by the first quarter of 2026.

"From what I heard of the statistics in terms deliveries and how many of them were on time this year versus last year, I believe there's an improvement but it's still coming off a horrible base, so it's still not good," Oman Air chief executive Con Korfiatis told The National last week.

The 787 coming within weeks was originally scheduled for delivery in 2022, he said, adding that it is unfair for airlines to bear the implications of suppliers' failures.

'A long way to go'

Airlines and analysts have acknowledged that Boeing has a long pathway to recovery, despite initial signs of improvement.

"Turning Boeing around is going to take a very long time and twelve months is but a drop on that journey," John Grant, senior analyst at OAG, told The National.

"It's making progress, but has a long way to go."

This will take restoring market confidence, rebuilding credibility, working with customers and delivering aircraft according to the revised schedules, he added.

"Kelly Ortberg is the best CEO they’ve had in 20 years. They’re far from out of the woods, and they still have big challenges, but they’re making strong progress," Mr Aboulafia said.

These challenges include managing high debt levels and catching up with Airbus on the middle-of-the market jet like the A321 Neo but it will take designing a new jet to do that, he said.

'Precarious' timing

The first deadly crash for the 787 since it entered service in 2011 comes as Boeing is trying to recover from two crashes in 2018 and 2019 involving its 737 Max model as well as the Alaska Airlines incident last year.

"For a company still rebuilding from the 737 Max crisis, the timing could not be more precarious," Mr Bauer said.