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The “serious weaknesses” of Russian radios have probably played a significant role in the stalled Ukraine offensive, leading military analysts have said.
Corruption among Russian military officials may have resulted in troops going to war with too few high-quality encrypted radios or sets fitted with faulty Chinese-made parts, according to a Rusi think tank paper.
Reports from prisoners of war also suggest that Russian officers fearful of being on the front line have withdrawn beyond 18 kilometres radio range of secure sets, forcing soldiers to use mobile phones.
The report’s findings point to “potentially serious weaknesses” in the Russian army allowing communications to be exploited by jamming as well as interception.
Previously Moscow’s military chiefs have remarked on the excellent performance of their latest “sixth generation” Azart tactical military radios, but it appears now that there are either not enough of them or they are inadequate.
“It seems bizarre that units advancing into Ukraine during this dangerous phase of the operation would not be outfitted with the best equipment, including radios, that Russia’s defence industry has to offer,” the report said.
It questioned whether radios were being delivered to the field piecemeal, “or worse, are these new military radios considered substandard?” wrote the authors Sam Cranny-Evans and Thomas Withington.
“That troops may feel more confident using a cheap Chinese hand-held radio would say much about the quality of Russian equipment,” they added.
In the early fighting around Kyiv a captured airborne soldier was found with one of the advanced R-187P Azart radios but this now appears rare. Soldiers have reportedly used Chinese hand-held radios, mobile phones and walkie-talkies that are undermining their ability to speak in secret.
In the last week the Russians have also lost three very senior officers, including two generals, whose precise locations were possibly tracked by their communications vulnerability, although this is not verifiable.
Before invading, commanders ignored communication needs “for the range and scale of operations conducted”, said the report, titled “Russian Comms in Ukraine: A World of Hertz".
“The current operations in Ukraine suggest that Russia does not have as many modern radios in service as it has claimed.”
The intensity of fighting, with western estimates putting Russians killed at 6,000, along with commanders being deliberately targeted by Ukrainian snipers, has apparently led to officers being absent on the front line.
The report quoted from a verified interview of a captured soldier who said: “The officers started stationing themselves further and further away from the fighting … they are out of radio range at this point, and no one can contact them’.
The Russian then explained that shortages in long-range radios had prevented contact with generals commanding the entire invasion.
This had resulted in troops using mobile phones to contact officers and “gain some situational awareness,” said the report.
The London-based institution stated that “one of the most striking images” of the war was the photograph of a civilian's hand-held radio captured from Russian forces. The device is a Chinese-made BaoFeng radio that lacks military-grade encryption.
“Open-source intelligence and Ukrainian reports suggest that radio communications across the Russian forces are poor, leading to makeshift solutions,” the report said.
While not as eye-catching as tanks, guns and helicopters, radios are key to the functioning of armies with clear communications allowing commanders to manoeuvre their troops effectively.
However, Russian-speaking Ukrainians might now be feeding “false or misleading traffic” that is allowing them to “sow disorganisation, doubt and demoralisation” among Russian units. Furthermore, it could allow interception of front line infantry chatter as they go into battle.
The paper also questioned whether Russia’s much revered electronic warfare capabilities had “refrained from a heavier weight of electronic attack to avoid friendly fire against the civilian communications” that their troops rely on.
The report concluded that the “seemingly parlous state” of Russia’s radios had created an opportunity for exploitation by Ukraine.
“While Ukrainian forces may be numerically inferior on the battlefield, they have an opportunity to be superior in the electromagnetic spectrum … Ukrainian forces can exploit Russian networks for intelligence and for battlefield deception.”
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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