The European Union sent prime minister Theresa May back to the drawing board on Brexit, rejecting her proposal for a new trade pact in a blow to hopes of striking a deal by October.
The pound weakened on the news.
In a blunt public critique of Mrs May’s plans, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier said he will never accept her proposal for a new customs arrangement, which she saw as her best hope of reaching an accord that she can sell to a divided Parliament in London.
On July 12, Mrs May put forward a model under which the UK would collect the EU’s tariffs on goods entering the country, as part of a plan to keep trade with the bloc flowing freely after the split. But speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Thursday, Mr Barnier said this would never be acceptable.
“The EU cannot – and the EU will not – delegate the application of its customs policy and rules, VAT and excise duty collections to a non-member who would not be subject to the EU’s governance structures,” Mr Barnier told reporters as he stood next to UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab.
The EU’s verdict is a blow to May. Her allies believe her carefully constructed compromise plan is the only option that could be acceptable to the feuding pro and anti-Brexit wings of her Conservative Party.
If the premier can’t persuade her own members of Parliament to back an agreement, the UK will be on course to crash out of the bloc with no deal on March 29 next year. Equally, unless she can agree to a blueprint that the EU also accepts, she won’t have any deal to sell at all.
Thursday’s public appearance in the Belgian capital was the first time Mr Barnier and Mr Raab have held a full press conference since the minister took over from David Davis on July 9.
Mr Davis, an ardent campaigner to leave the EU, quit Mrs May’s cabinet because he disagreed so strongly with her trade plans. Both Mr Davis and foreign secretary Boris Johnson, who also resigned in protest, believe the premier is tying the UK too closely to the EU’s trading regime in a way that would never be workable.
Brexit backers like Mr Davis and Mr Johnson want a clean split, and Mrs May is under pressure from as many as 80 other eurosceptic Conservatives to toughen up her proposals and pursue a hard divorce.
The EU, however, wants Mrs May to take an even softer line than she already proposes. Mr Barnier offered her a potentially inflammatory alternative: stay inside the EU’s existing customs union.
Mrs May has repeatedly promised to leave the customs union, and if she reneges on that she would run the risk of being ousted. Staying inside such an arrangement is the official policy of the UK’s main opposition Labour Party, and is favoured by the pro-EU members of Mrs May’s party who have rebelled against her. That makes his suggestion particularly provocative.
“I have always said the EU is open to a customs union,” Mr Barnier said.
The pound weakened on his comments and was down 0.5 percent at $1.3129 as of 6:25 p.m. in London time.
Mr Barnier was speaking at the end of another week of talks that have focused on the conundrum of how to avoid a hard border in Ireland when it becomes the frontier between the UK and the EU. The two sides also discussed the UK’s goals for future economic ties with its biggest trading partner. Mr Barnier said there had been progress on the issue of security and data sharing.
But the most important negotiations have virtually stalled with just 12 weeks to go before a self-imposed October deadline to reach a divorce agreement. Both sides have stepped up “no-deal” contingency planning.
In the press conference, Mr Barnier was blunt, telling Mr Raab that the EU also has red lines. “The UK wants to take back control, Dominic, of its money, law and borders – and you said this point in an article this morning,” Mr Barnier said. “We will respect that. But the EU also wants to keep control of its money, law and borders – and the UK should respect that.”
For his part, Mr Raab put a more positive gloss on the state of play in negotiations. “We’ve got a template for a good relationship,” he said of Mrs May’s blueprint.
Mr Raab said the Brexit negotiations will resume in mid-August, with weekly discussions from then onward in order to “clear away all the obstacles that lie in our path.”
Both sides say they want to finalise a deal in October to give the UK and European parliaments time to approve it before Britain’s departure from the EU on March 29.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”