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A former Nato commander expressed concern over a conflagration beyond Ukraine as analysts said Russia could move quickly to attack Kiev after launching an invasion of Ukraine.
Gen Sir Richard Shirreff said that Britain could soon be at war with Russia because any incursion into Nato territory would bring Britain into direct involvement in the conflict.
“There is no surprise and there is profound sadness and a sense of appalling horror at what is about to unfold for the people of Ukraine,” he said.
Britain was among the countries preparing a response after weeks of western threats and an escalation of sanctions in recent days failed to deter a Russian invasion.
Gen Shirreff, a former deputy supreme commander of Nato, said Britain had to “assume the worst” about Russia’s intentions.
“The Russians don’t hang around. They’ll look to establish overwhelming force,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“There will be multiple attacks from different axes … a full-blown military offensive to occupy Ukraine.
"I think we have to assume that this is not Russia biting off a chunk of Ukraine – for example, establishing a land corridor in Crimea – but a full-blown military offensive to occupy Ukraine.”
Gen Shirreff said it is “entirely plausible” that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be aiming to revive the Soviet Union. He said that if Russia puts “one bootstep” into Nato territory, the entire alliance will be at war.
Asked whether Britain might be expected to take part directly in the current military confrontation, he said: “Absolutely there is a possibility that we as a nation could be at war with Russia, because if Russia puts one bootstep across Nato territory, we are all at war with Russia. Every single one, every single member of the Nato alliance.
“Article 5 [of the Nato alliance] says an attack on one is an attack on all, so we need to change our mindset fundamentally, and that is why I say our defence starts in the UK on the frontiers of Nato.”
Franz-Stefan Gady, a military expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, predicted that Russian forces would “try everything to surround and smash the Ukrainian forces in several rapid pincer movements”.
He said Russian troops were fighting under the shield of a nuclear deterrent after Mr Putin spoke ominously of “horrible consequences” for anyone who wages war with Russia.
Mr Putin described Russia as one of the most potent nuclear powers and boasted of its range of state-of-the-art weapons.
“Ukrainian forces will have to fight well-organised delaying battles as best they can, the hardest type of tactical ground operations,” Mr Gady said.
“Without practice, they can quickly lead to chaotic retreats and break their fighting spirit. Breaking that spirit is the main aim of the rapid Russian operations.”
Ukraine’s border guards said Russian forces were attacking the country on several fronts after entering from Belarus, Russia and annexed Crimea. The Ukrainian government said shelling was taking place across the country.
The Kremlin had earlier said rebel leaders in eastern Ukraine had asked Moscow for military help against Kiev, days after Russia recognised separatist governments there.
Alex Plitsas, an Iraq War veteran and former US security official, said there were enough Russian troops to encircle Ukrainian forces in the east.
Those Ukrainian forces would then be “cut off from resupply and defending Kiev” if Russia launches an assault on the capital, Mr Plitsas said.
Although western leaders promised diplomatic retaliation against Russia, they have said they will not wage war on Ukraine’s behalf because it is not a member of Nato.
Josh Manning, a former US intelligence analyst, told Australian television that he hoped Ukraine’s fighting spirit on its home territory would be greater than that of Russian forces drafted in from far-flung barracks.
“My hope is that they fight hard and they overcome what is going to be an onslaught of brutal proportions,” he said.
Russia is “going to come in with power and shock and awe that the world hasn’t seen in a long time”.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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