Activists outside the Cop26 venue in Glasgow on Wednesday night hold a vigil for people around the world experiencing the most severe climate effects. AFP
Activists outside the Cop26 venue in Glasgow on Wednesday night hold a vigil for people around the world experiencing the most severe climate effects. AFP
Activists outside the Cop26 venue in Glasgow on Wednesday night hold a vigil for people around the world experiencing the most severe climate effects. AFP
Activists outside the Cop26 venue in Glasgow on Wednesday night hold a vigil for people around the world experiencing the most severe climate effects. AFP

Cop26 pledges on coal, cars, forests and methane ‘will have limited impact’


Soraya Ebrahimi
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Pledges on coal, cars, forests and methane at Cop26 will have only a limited effect in avoiding dangerous global warming, analysis suggests.

The sectors' announcements have been praised by the UK as real action, alongside negotiations aimed at increasing efforts by countries to tackle their emissions.

Initial analysis from Climate Action Tracker said the deals could cut emissions by about 2.2 billion tonnes.

Pledges close by only 9 per cent the gap between emissions put into the atmosphere in 2030 and what is needed to limit dangerous warming, the analysis found.

Scientists warn that the world must cut emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 as part of efforts to keep global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Beyond that level, the most severe impacts of more extreme weather, rising seas and crop failures will be felt.

But there is a huge gap between that figure and what countries have planned to their cut emissions over the next decade.

Many nations have updated their plans for cutting climate pollution by 2030 in the past year, which reduced the emissions gap that previously existed by about 15 to 17 per cent.

That means the increased national action promised leading to Glasgow and the sector pledges together have reduced the gap by about a quarter.

But global emissions will still be nearly twice as high in 2030 as what they should be for the world to make the 1.5°C limit, the analysis said.

They urged all governments to reconsider their targets towards the next climate conference in November 2022, in Cairo, to jointly enhance their action.

  • Walelasoetxeige Paiter Bandeira Surui, known as Txai Surui, an indigenous activist from the Paiter Surui people of the state of Rondonia, Brazil, poses for a photograph during the Cop26 summit in Glasgow. AFP
    Walelasoetxeige Paiter Bandeira Surui, known as Txai Surui, an indigenous activist from the Paiter Surui people of the state of Rondonia, Brazil, poses for a photograph during the Cop26 summit in Glasgow. AFP
  • Cop26 President Alok Sharma and Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon observe a two-minute silence to remember the war dead on Armistice Day in the UK Pavilion at Cop26. PA
    Cop26 President Alok Sharma and Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon observe a two-minute silence to remember the war dead on Armistice Day in the UK Pavilion at Cop26. PA
  • Police officers observe a two-minute silence outside the summit venue. PA
    Police officers observe a two-minute silence outside the summit venue. PA
  • Messages attached to the fence at the entrance to the Cop26 summit. PA
    Messages attached to the fence at the entrance to the Cop26 summit. PA
  • UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres gestures during an interview at the summit. AP Photo
    UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres gestures during an interview at the summit. AP Photo
  • Delegates are silhouetted at the summit venue. Reuters
    Delegates are silhouetted at the summit venue. Reuters
  • Activists from the climate change group Extinction Rebellion pretend to be dead under white sheets as they hold a 'Remember climate death' sit-in on the sidelines of Cop26. AFP
    Activists from the climate change group Extinction Rebellion pretend to be dead under white sheets as they hold a 'Remember climate death' sit-in on the sidelines of Cop26. AFP
  • A person takes a picture of messages left on a fence at the Scottish Event Campus in Glasgow. PA
    A person takes a picture of messages left on a fence at the Scottish Event Campus in Glasgow. PA

They recommend governments update their national plans, known as nationally determined contributions, under the UN process, if they had not included the sector initiatives in their targets.

If the initiatives gather more signatures, they could further reduce the gap by several billion tonnes of greenhouse gases, the analysts said.

But they raised concerns over whether the declarations, such as on stopping deforestation, would be be realised.

The analysis only includes the signatories of the various initiatives by November 10, and only counts reductions that are not already planned for in countries’ initiatives.

“It is not surprising that the effect of the Cop26 sectoral initiatives beyond national climate targets is initially small," said Prof Dr Niklas Hohne of the NewClimate Institute, one of the Climate Action Tracker's partner organisations.

“These initiatives are designed for those that do not sign immediately.

“The pressure of being put on the spot will help to grow the membership of the initiatives and enhance the effect beyond national climate targets in the long run.”

Updated: November 14, 2021, 4:39 AM