A woman holds a child at a camp for displaced people in Kabul. AP
A woman holds a child at a camp for displaced people in Kabul. AP
A woman holds a child at a camp for displaced people in Kabul. AP
A woman holds a child at a camp for displaced people in Kabul. AP

Red Cross prepares for half a million Afghans to flee


Tim Stickings
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Red Cross workers in Europe are preparing for more than 500,000 refugees to flee Afghanistan amid fears that a harsh winter will compound the country’s woes.

The charity said Afghanistan faces an “alarming humanitarian emergency” as Taliban rule and a dire economic scenario pushes people to leave.

It said a worst-case scenario used by aid workers was that 515,000 people could leave Afghanistan before the end of the year.

Humanitarian workers expect busy migration routes to Europe as asylum seekers look for refuge.

“Many Afghans could cross international borders in the coming months,” said Xavier Castellanos, an under-secretary general at the Red Cross.

“Winter is approaching and we know it can be harsh … we need to prepare to provide them with protection and humanitarian assistance.”

He said drought, food shortages, healthcare problems, the coronavirus pandemic and “restrictive social norms” could force people to leave.

Despite presenting a moderate image, the Taliban have moved to restrict women and bring back harsh punishments such as amputation since returning to power.

Western countries have set women’s rights as a condition of co-operation with the Taliban, whose regime is not recognised internationally.

Children collect food and recyclable materials from waste near the airport in Kabul. AFP
Children collect food and recyclable materials from waste near the airport in Kabul. AFP

The European Union plans to help Afghanistan’s neighbours to absorb refugees to prevent a migration crisis in Europe.

While some Afghans were flown out of Kabul during the Nato airlift, others who worked for western forces were left behind.

Hundreds of Afghans have arrived in Greece this year, more than from any other country.

Others arrived in Bosnia-Herzegovina where humanitarian workers are dealing with the flow of arrivals.

The Red Cross said it needed more than 24 million Swiss francs ($25.9m) to provide humanitarian assistance for at least the next year.

It said the priority was to provide aid for Afghanistan’s neighbours including Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan.

“Afghanistan faces an alarming humanitarian emergency and a worsening economic crisis, both likely to be further exacerbated by the approaching winter season,” the charity said.

“Access to banking services has been severely constrained, with cash flow crippled.

“A rapid deterioration of humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan could result in catastrophic consequences for vulnerable Afghans and could lead to further internal and cross-border displacement.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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Updated: September 29, 2021, 1:51 PM