Improving peace in the Middle East and North Africa may lead the region to rise in global rankings, potentially overtaking sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Russia in the next two to three years, experts have told The National.
The 2023 Global Peace Index, released on Wednesday, revealed Iceland as the world’s most peaceful country for the 15th consecutive year.
While the Mena region came last, dwindling conflict in certain countries may point to a slightly more optimistic future.
“Countries are realising the cost of conflict is just not worth it,” Steve Killilea, founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace, told The National ahead of the index release.
He added that he expected the Mena region to rise in the peace rankings and replace sub-Saharan Africa and other regions in the coming years, as terrorism gains a foothold in the Sahel.
"When we’re looking at the average regional score now, whereas the Middle East was way behind other regions, it’s fast approaching regions such as South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Russia and Eurasia."
"So, if improvements it's had in the last three years keep up, then in that case it will probably end up more peaceful than a couple of other regions. It’s not that far off a number of them now."
The Middle East recorded the biggest improvement in peacefulness in 2022 as well as improvement in regional ties, with the Iran-Saudi rapprochement and stable relations between Qatar and other Gulf states cited as signs of positive change.
Ongoing conflict also declined and was the primary reason for improvement, the report said.
Two countries – Libya and Oman – both came within the top five improvers this year, with the former raising its overall score by more than 7 per cent. Oman has no active conflict, but the index focuses on a wide range of factors that influence a country's stability – or lack thereof.
Qatar remains the most peaceful country in the region, a position it has held since the index began in 2008, and is the only Mena country in the top 25 globally.
Following the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the global focus of terrorism has now shifted to areas of Africa, threatening to send its hopes for peace plummeting.
“Conflict and terrorism in the Middle East were key drivers of the global deterioration in peacefulness until 2015, but in the past eight years conflicts in other regions have underpinned the global decline in peacefulness,” the institute said.
The “epicentre” of terrorism has now shifted from Mena to sub-Saharan Africa, according to the institute, echoing widespread warnings of a rise in ISIS activity in Central Africa.
Mali and the Central African Republic were ranked the 11th and 12th least peaceful countries in this year's index, respectively.
Conflict between the Malian government and extremist groups led to the largest regional drop in peace, it said, blaming government failure to keep territory from falling into the hands of militants.
Globally, Afghanistan “bore the brunt” of terrorism in recent years, it added – a situation now changed as the Taliban is no longer classed as a terrorist group.
Israel declining sharply
Despite regional improvements, Israel declined sharply in 2022, dropping eight places on the global index.
Palestine was ranked higher overall than Israel, mainly due to Israel’s hostile relations with neighbouring countries, said Mr Killilea.
The biggest factor in Israel’s decline was political instability, including the proposed judicial reforms which led to record protests across the country.
But conflict with the Palestinians – which reached its deadliest yet in 2022 – was also a major contributor, alongside tension with Iran.
That conflict shows no sign of abating, with deadly raids continuing in the occupied West Bank and last week’s drone strike in Jenin – the first instance of its kind in the region since 2006.
Israel's commitment to expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank is also likely to further diminish hopes for peace.
Drone use on the rise
The use of drones is also on the rise and expected to increase further in the near future.
The number of armed groups using drones has increased by 50 per cent in the past five years, with around 30 different groups using unmanned aerial vehicles globally, Mr Killilea said.
The number of drone strikes has "risen dramatically" in recent years, he added, at a rate of 200 to 300 per cent.
"Drones are just a small part of what’s used in conflicts but we are seeing it increase quite strongly," he said, adding that "we will see more use particularly as drones become able to fly further".
Wednesday's report noted Turkey's role in particular, with Ankara described as a "drone superpower" for its exports – primarily destined for Ethiopia, according to Mr Killilea.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Fixtures and results:
Wed, Aug 29:
- Malaysia bt Hong Kong by 3 wickets
- Oman bt Nepal by 7 wickets
- UAE bt Singapore by 215 runs
Thu, Aug 30:
- UAE bt Nepal by 78 runs
- Hong Kong bt Singapore by 5 wickets
- Oman bt Malaysia by 2 wickets
Sat, Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong; Oman v Singapore; Malaysia v Nepal
Sun, Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman; Malaysia v UAE; Nepal v Singapore
Tue, Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore; UAE v Oman; Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu, Sep 6: Final
Cheeseburger%20ingredients
%3Cp%3EPrice%20for%20a%20single%20burger%20%C2%A30.44%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%20a%20single%20bun%20%C2%A30.17%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%20a%20single%20cheese%20slice%20%C2%A30.04%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20Gherkins%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20ketchup%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%20%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20mustard%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20onions%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETotal%2068p%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECredit%3A%20Meal%20Delivery%20Experts%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Full Party in the Park line-up
2pm – Andreah
3pm – Supernovas
4.30pm – The Boxtones
5.30pm – Lighthouse Family
7pm – Step On DJs
8pm – Richard Ashcroft
9.30pm – Chris Wright
10pm – Fatboy Slim
11pm – Hollaphonic
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
