A stubborn Hungary, a new-look Poland and a French president with an eye on his legacy are tipped to dominate Europe's corridors of power in 2024, at a time of election mayhem and waning German influence.
Power will be shifting at EU, G7 and Nato levels during a year of enormous challenges, including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, economic strife and record-high illegal migration.
With the EU's traditional Franco-German "engine" spluttering with divisions between Paris and Berlin on issues from the Middle East to air defence, the bloc's geopolitical influence is up for grabs.
A messy EU election could leave a power vacuum that black sheep Hungary is poised to exploit, leaving Brussels in a state of "damage control".
Italy is captaining the G7 with an eye on curbing migration, an issue also preoccupying Germany's under-fire leadership as the bloc's centre of gravity shifts from Berlin to newly EU-friendly Warsaw.
In a bumper election year in which billions will go to the polls worldwide, here is our guide to the key players guiding Europe through tumultuous times in 2024.
Black sheep rules
Hungary’s nationalist government relishes its role as EU troublemaker-in-chief, often wielding its veto power to force concessions from the other 26 members of the bloc.
It raises some alarm, then, that Hungary is due to take on the EU’s rotating presidency for the second half of 2024, with Belgium steering the ship from January until June.
The presidency chairs meetings, sets EU priorities and is supposed to look for consensus on difficult issues such as the Israel-Gaza war, on which leaders struggled to agree on a statement.
The current president, Belgian politician Charles Michel, announced on January 6 he would run in the European election, raising the possibility of an early departure and of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban playing a key role by default.
The French-German relationship is broken at leadership level
Rym Momtaz
Some doubt whether Hungary, which disdains Brussels and has been stripped of EU funds for undermining the rule of law, can credibly play the role of honest broker expected of the presidency.
Nonetheless, vague talk of skipping Hungary’s turn has gone nowhere so far and Mr Orban has promised that the country will “assume an intermediary role” in the aftermath of EU elections.
A key issue will be Ukraine. Hungary opposes sending arms, has blocked funds, watered down sanctions on Russia and is reluctant to bring Ukraine closer to EU membership.
EU countries may disagree on a lot of things, but one thing most of them agree on is that they do not want Mr Orban as a leader, said Gesine Weber, a research analyst and fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank.
Someone with a technocratic background like former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi is likely to be chosen in the coming weeks to steer the EU until what would have been the end of Mr Michel’s mandate.
“It’ll be a decision driven by the need for damage control more than an enthusiastic choice for a new leader,” Ms Weber said.
France in consolidation mode
With Mr Michel soon gone, and powerful EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen giving little indication about whether she wants to stay in her job, all eyes are on the historic Franco-German relationship.
A powerful speaker, French President Emmanuel Macron has come across as Europe’s de facto leader in comparison with the more low-profile German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“The EU has become pretty French in the past years,” Ms Weber said.
While Mr Macron likes to give long monologues wading into tricky geopolitical waters, the softly-spoken Mr Scholz tends to stick to short, familiar soundbites, when he chips in at all. His camera-friendly deputy Robert Habeck is often left to defend the government’s record.
Mr Scholz's quiet style was seen as a virtue when he ran for election in 2021, promising to maintain Angela Merkel’s steady hand at the wheel, and admirers say his careful manner makes him the right man for serious times. His critics accuse him of weakness, arrogance and going missing in action.
The French-German relationship is broken at leadership level, said Rym Momtaz, consultant research fellow for European foreign policy and security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Views in Paris and Berlin on the future of Europe diverge on a number of points, including highly-sensitive ones like defence.
A German proposal last year to strengthen air defence, including with purchases from the US or Israel, was coolly received in Paris, which would have preferred its own air defence systems, the Mistral, to be prioritised.
Emmanuel Macron, France's president, Stevo Pendarovski, North Macedonia's president, Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor, Jonas Gahr Store, Norway's prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece's prime minister, Andrzej Duda, Poland's president, and Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister. Bloomberg
These disagreements are likely to persist in 2024, although Mr Scholz and Mr Macron do their best to maintain a friendly facade. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, the French president lauded Franco-German efficiency at responding together to the Covid-19 crisis.
In his first speech in six years in the high-profile Swiss event, Mr Macron said that Europe was facing important challenges as the US and China invest massively in their industry and wars continue in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Europe must invest to provide its middle class with well-paying jobs and keep it happy, said Mr Macron, in an apparent hint at the rise of the far-right, which is far ahead of his political family in polls in France before the European election.
Europe must also not let Russia win in Ukraine, whatever the US November presidential election result is, he said, in a reference to the possible re-election of Donald Trump.
“We must do everything to hold the world together and not give in to divisions,” Mr Macron said.
Yet EU influence as a bloc on the escalating conflict across the Mediterranean in Gaza remains limited due to internal divisions.
Some countries, including Germany, have rallied behind Israel while others, such as Ireland and Spain, have expressed more concern for potential Israeli human rights offences against Palestinians.
France is in a unique position as it tries to support both Israel’s security interests and international law, Ms Momtaz told The National.
Paris recently brokered a deal with Qatar to deliver medicine to Hamas-held hostages in Gaza as well as humanitarian aid to the civilian population.
French diplomacy has so far had little impact on Israel – a fact that Mr Macron himself admitted this week.
This reflects a decrease in western influence on Israel rather than a lack of French efforts, Ms Momtaz said.
“Big western countries like the US, France and the UK clearly have less sway than before,” she said.
With more than three years left in office, Mr Macron is conscious about wanting to build a legacy and is likely to be inclined to keep a leadership role on international affairs, Ms Momtaz added.
Many are also pointing at Poland taking a more central role in European leadership since the election last month of EU-friendly Donald Tusk to the premiership.
“The centre of gravity in Europe might become more balanced between France, Germany and Poland,” Ms Webersaid.
German under par
Unlike Mr Macron, Mr Scholz stayed away from Davos.
It is not that Mr Scholz’s schedule is unusually busy – three of his four official outings this week involve watching handball, meeting carnival jesters and paying tribute to late football star Franz Beckenbauer. Behind the scenes he has met his cabinet and held a phone call with US President Joe Biden.
Although Mr Scholz’s team played down his absence from Davos, it is certainly not the first time they have had to field suggestions that the chancellor should raise his voice.
Norbert Roettgen, a senior opposition expert on foreign policy, similarly bemoaned what he called a lack of leadership from Mr Scholz in his dealings with France and Hungary.
“Germany must take the initiative with Poland and France to reorganise security in Europe,” he said last weekend.
“We have to show the door to Orban, who is abolishing democracy and the rule of law in Hungary and is an ally of Putin. But instead of leading, Scholz is silent.”
Although not up for re-election himself until 2025, Mr Scholz could still feel voter heat this year as three states go to the polls in the former communist east, the heartland of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Battling to avoid the historic dam breach of an AfD win in the regional polls, Mr Scholz has toughened his stance on illegal migration, with an overstretched asylum system blamed in part for the far-right’s poll bounce.
Polling in 11 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations found Germany to be the only one where immigration was the top voter concern, above climate change and the war in Ukraine.
Analysts said a jump in migrant arrivals “may have triggered memories of 2015”, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Syria claimed asylum in Germany.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Secret Pigeon Service: Operation Colomba, Resistance and the Struggle to Liberate Europe Gordon Corera, Harper Collins
All people fleeing from Ukraine before the armed conflict are allowed to enter Poland. Our country shelters every person whose life is in danger - regardless of their nationality.
The dominant group of refugees in Poland are citizens of Ukraine, but among the people checked by the Border Guard are also citizens of the USA, Nigeria, India, Georgia and other countries.
All persons admitted to Poland are verified by the Border Guard. In relation to those who are in doubt, e.g. do not have documents, Border Guard officers apply appropriate checking procedures.
No person who has received refuge in Poland will be sent back to a country torn by war.
New Zealand (1st innings) 153 all out (66.3 overs) - Williamson 63, Nicholls 28, Yasir 3-54, Haris 2-11, Abbas 2-13, Hasan 2-38
Pakistan (1st innings) 59-2 (23 overs)
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
Wimbledon order of play on Saturday, July 8
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Centre Court (4pm)
Agnieszka Radwanska (9) v Timea Bacsinszky (19)
Ernests Gulbis v Novak Djokovic (2)
Mischa Zverev (27) v Roger Federer (3)
Court 1 (4pm)
Milos Raonic (6) v Albert Ramos-Vinolas (25)
Anett Kontaveit v Caroline Wozniacki (5)
Dominic Thiem (8) v Jared Donaldson
Court 2 (2.30pm)
Sorana Cirstea v Garbine Muguruza (14)
To finish: Sam Querrey (24) leads Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12) 6-2, 3-6, 7-6, 1-6, 6-5
Angelique Kerber (1) v Shelby Rogers
Sebastian Ofner v Alexander Zverev (10)
Court 3 (2.30pm)
Grigor Dimitrov (13) v Dudi Sela
Alison Riske v Coco Vandeweghe (24)
David Ferrer v Tomas Berdych (11)
Court 12 (2.30pm)
Polona Hercog v Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
Gael Monfils (15) v Adrian Mannarino
Court 18 (2.30pm)
Magdalena Rybarikova v Lesia Tsurenko
Petra Martic v Zarina Diyas
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Scotland v Ireland:
Scotland (15-1): Stuart Hogg; Tommy Seymour, Huw Jones, Sam Johnson, Sean Maitland; Finn Russell, Greig Laidlaw (capt); Josh Strauss, James Ritchie, Ryan Wilson; Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Simon Berghan, Stuart McInally, Allan Dell
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, D'arcy Rae, Ben Toolis, Rob Harley, Ali Price, Pete Horne, Blair Kinghorn
Coach: Gregor Townsend (SCO)
Ireland (15-1): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Jack Conan, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony; James Ryan, Quinn Roux; Tadhg Furlong, Rory Best (capt), Cian Healy
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne, Andrew Porter, Ultan Dillane, Josh van der Flier, John Cooney, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour
Coach: Joe Schmidt (NZL)
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
