Masdar Institute scientists develop weather prediction system



ABU DHABI // Masdar Institute scientists have come up with an accurate system to predict extreme weather.

The “hydro-climate” model has also shown that the UAE’s weather has been getting hotter and drier, particularly in Abu Dhabi.

Data collected shows climate extremes in the UAE, such as long periods without rain, extremely high temperatures, dust storms and flash floods, are going to increase in intensity and frequency.

“The development of the UAE’s hydro-climate models underpins Masdar Institute’s mission of providing sustainable, high-tech solutions to the issues of climate change affecting the country. These hydro-climate models can be used to ensure proper water resource management, agricultural development, renewable energy deployment, and public health and safety – all of which are key to the country’s prosperity,” said Dr Behjat Al Yousuf, interim provost at the Masdar Institute.

By accurately predicting the weather, it is hoped the system will help to mitigate harsh environmental effects and provide an opportunity to reduce their effect on human and economic activity.

"Our model predictions will provide the UAE with the crucial information needed to support decision-making processes in a number of fields, including water resources management, public health planning and renewable energy development, thus bringing Abu Dhabi closer to its goals of increased welfare, security and sustainability for its people and their future," said Dr Taha Ouarda, professor of water and environmental engineering at Masdar Institute and head of the Institute Centre for Water and Environment.

“One of the aims of this project is to be able to plan for rare and extreme weather events,” Dr Ouarda said.

“The bottom line is that we need a good understanding of local hydro-climate and large-scale climate variability to better predict extremes in this region,” said Dr Annalisa Molini, assistant professor of water and environmental engineering.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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