The ground beneath the Palestinian territories and Israel is shifting so rapidly that it is impossible to predict what is going to happen next. As I write this, Israeli forces may have decided to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, having determined that they cannot back down now, as Hamas continues to fire rockets into their territory in response to the violence on the streets of Jerusalem between Palestinians and Israelis.
Such an operation, however, will not only further enrage the residents of Gaza – the Palestinian territory under the control of Hamas – but those Arabs living within Israel as well. Whether the situation has slipped out of the Israeli government’s control or not, there is palpable anger on the streets days after Israeli right-wing extremists engaged in violence with ordinary Palestinians, including worshippers, around Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
A ground invasion of Gaza could also overturn the balance of power in the country and its immediate neighbourhood, as it potentially entraps Israel on multiple fronts: within Israel itself, in Gaza to its west and in Lebanon to its north. The Iranian regime, which has allies in both Gaza and Lebanon and considers Israel to be a mortal enemy, may even consider firing its own rockets into the country for the first time. That calculation is not yet clear.
For the Israeli leadership, invasion could serve as a means to destroy Hamas by taking down Gaza’s military and civilian infrastructure, while containing its own home front and restoring deterrence. On the other hand, Hamas and its patrons in Tehran may seize the opportunity to defeat Israel through a barrage of missiles from the aforementioned fronts while weaponising Palestinian anger inside Israel.
Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy group in Lebanon, is no doubt prepared to heat up the Lebanese front, the military logic behind which is that Israel may not be able to withstand attacks on two fronts. In all likelihood, Israel fears the Lebanese front more than it does the one in Gaza, because of the advanced Iranian military supplies delivered to Hezbollah.
In Tehran’s estimation, the international political climate could present it with an opportune moment to engage in confrontation with Israel.
One reason for this is the lack of effectiveness on the part of the members of the so-called Middle East Quartet – the UN, US, EU and Russia – who have historically been involved in mediating the Palestine-Israel peace process.
In the event of a confrontation, Tehran is betting on inaction from the European powers. It is anticipating little more than European sympathy for the Palestinians and its criticism of actions taken by Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. Britain, France and Germany seem determined to revive the nuclear deal that the global powers had struck with Iran in 2015 before former US president Donald Trump pulled his country out of it. Talks are still under way in Vienna and Tehran is expecting them to maintain their focus on the same.
Russia, meanwhile, has long withdrawn from the role once played by the Soviet Union. It has become pragmatic and is closer to Israel than it was in the past. But for Moscow, the priority right now seems to be the upcoming meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Reykjavik on Thursday. They are expected to discuss a broad range of issues, including the future of Ukraine and the summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, scheduled for next month.
US President Joe Biden will be under pressure to resolve the ongoing crisis in Palestine and Israel. AP Photo
In Tehran's estimation, the international political climate presents it with an opportune moment to engage in confrontation with Israel
As for the US, Mr Biden will be forced to pay attention to the developments in Israel. This is not just due to America’s strategic relationship with Israel, but also because he will probably view the current crisis through the lens of the nuclear talks in Vienna. The revival of the 2015 deal is a priority for his administration, too.
One of the hurdles for Mr Biden, however, is that he won’t be able to mediate between Iran and Israel with the purpose of deescalating the situation in Gaza, Lebanon or Israel itself – in the unlikely event any of these fronts heat up. At present, there is some sympathy for ordinary Palestinians in the US media but that could change if there is indeed a military confrontation between Israel on the one side and Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran on the other.
Given the inherent bias the US has towards Israel, the Islamic Republic will test the Biden administration and the American media equally on one of the most difficult issues for them. It will put the US president in a spot by trying to force him to choose between his administration's support for Israel and his own determination to revive the nuclear deal with Tehran.
Meanwhile, important though it is to consider the geopolitical ramifications of a potential invasion of Gaza, one must not forget the humanitarian crisis it could engender as well as the possible setbacks for Israel’s neighbouring countries, including Egypt and Lebanon.
With the Biden administration seemingly distracted and with the potential for Israel to make a mistake, Iran could see this as its golden opportunity to achieve its goals.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
A demonstrator holding a Palestinian flag gestures during a protest over tension in Jerusalem and Israel-Gaza escalation, near Hawara checkpoint near Nablus in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, May 14, 2021. Reuters
A fireball and smoke billow up into the air during an Israeli air strike on Gaza City targeting the Ansar compound, linked to the Hamas movement, in the Gaza Strip. AFP
A nurse at Al Shifa Hospital holds a baby, who was pulled alive from under the rubble while seven other family members perished after an Israeli air strike struck Al Shati Refugee Camp in Gaza City. AFP
This satellite photo released by Planet Labs shows the Gaza Strip. AP Photo
A Palestinian girl sits on the floor next to her wounded grandmother at Al Shifa Hospital, after an Israeli air strike on Al Shati Refugee Camp in Gaza City. AFP
People inspect the damage done to Beit Hanoun after a night of Israeli raids in Gaza City, Gaza. Getty Images
A woman walks beside a broken asphalt, after an Israeli air strike on Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip. Getty Images
A car drives through rubble, after an Israeli raid in northern Gaza City. Getty Images
Palestinian girls who fled home due to Israeli air and artillery strikes, wait to fill bottles with water at a school hosting refugees in Gaza city. AFP
Israeli police arrest a Palestinian demonstrator during a protest in Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in east Jerusalem. EPA
Palestinian protesters hurl stones during clashes with Israeli forces in the Shuafat camp for Palestinian refugees, neighbouring the Israeli settlement of Ramat Shlomo, in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem. AFP
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Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023 More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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