The ground beneath the Palestinian territories and Israel is shifting so rapidly that it is impossible to predict what is going to happen next. As I write this, Israeli forces may have decided to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, having determined that they cannot back down now, as Hamas continues to fire rockets into their territory in response to the violence on the streets of Jerusalem between Palestinians and Israelis.
Such an operation, however, will not only further enrage the residents of Gaza – the Palestinian territory under the control of Hamas – but those Arabs living within Israel as well. Whether the situation has slipped out of the Israeli government’s control or not, there is palpable anger on the streets days after Israeli right-wing extremists engaged in violence with ordinary Palestinians, including worshippers, around Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
A ground invasion of Gaza could also overturn the balance of power in the country and its immediate neighbourhood, as it potentially entraps Israel on multiple fronts: within Israel itself, in Gaza to its west and in Lebanon to its north. The Iranian regime, which has allies in both Gaza and Lebanon and considers Israel to be a mortal enemy, may even consider firing its own rockets into the country for the first time. That calculation is not yet clear.
For the Israeli leadership, invasion could serve as a means to destroy Hamas by taking down Gaza’s military and civilian infrastructure, while containing its own home front and restoring deterrence. On the other hand, Hamas and its patrons in Tehran may seize the opportunity to defeat Israel through a barrage of missiles from the aforementioned fronts while weaponising Palestinian anger inside Israel.
Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy group in Lebanon, is no doubt prepared to heat up the Lebanese front, the military logic behind which is that Israel may not be able to withstand attacks on two fronts. In all likelihood, Israel fears the Lebanese front more than it does the one in Gaza, because of the advanced Iranian military supplies delivered to Hezbollah.
In Tehran’s estimation, the international political climate could present it with an opportune moment to engage in confrontation with Israel.
One reason for this is the lack of effectiveness on the part of the members of the so-called Middle East Quartet – the UN, US, EU and Russia – who have historically been involved in mediating the Palestine-Israel peace process.
In the event of a confrontation, Tehran is betting on inaction from the European powers. It is anticipating little more than European sympathy for the Palestinians and its criticism of actions taken by Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. Britain, France and Germany seem determined to revive the nuclear deal that the global powers had struck with Iran in 2015 before former US president Donald Trump pulled his country out of it. Talks are still under way in Vienna and Tehran is expecting them to maintain their focus on the same.
Russia, meanwhile, has long withdrawn from the role once played by the Soviet Union. It has become pragmatic and is closer to Israel than it was in the past. But for Moscow, the priority right now seems to be the upcoming meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Reykjavik on Thursday. They are expected to discuss a broad range of issues, including the future of Ukraine and the summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, scheduled for next month.
US President Joe Biden will be under pressure to resolve the ongoing crisis in Palestine and Israel. AP Photo
In Tehran's estimation, the international political climate presents it with an opportune moment to engage in confrontation with Israel
As for the US, Mr Biden will be forced to pay attention to the developments in Israel. This is not just due to America’s strategic relationship with Israel, but also because he will probably view the current crisis through the lens of the nuclear talks in Vienna. The revival of the 2015 deal is a priority for his administration, too.
One of the hurdles for Mr Biden, however, is that he won’t be able to mediate between Iran and Israel with the purpose of deescalating the situation in Gaza, Lebanon or Israel itself – in the unlikely event any of these fronts heat up. At present, there is some sympathy for ordinary Palestinians in the US media but that could change if there is indeed a military confrontation between Israel on the one side and Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran on the other.
Given the inherent bias the US has towards Israel, the Islamic Republic will test the Biden administration and the American media equally on one of the most difficult issues for them. It will put the US president in a spot by trying to force him to choose between his administration's support for Israel and his own determination to revive the nuclear deal with Tehran.
Meanwhile, important though it is to consider the geopolitical ramifications of a potential invasion of Gaza, one must not forget the humanitarian crisis it could engender as well as the possible setbacks for Israel’s neighbouring countries, including Egypt and Lebanon.
With the Biden administration seemingly distracted and with the potential for Israel to make a mistake, Iran could see this as its golden opportunity to achieve its goals.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
A demonstrator holding a Palestinian flag gestures during a protest over tension in Jerusalem and Israel-Gaza escalation, near Hawara checkpoint near Nablus in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, May 14, 2021. Reuters
A fireball and smoke billow up into the air during an Israeli air strike on Gaza City targeting the Ansar compound, linked to the Hamas movement, in the Gaza Strip. AFP
A nurse at Al Shifa Hospital holds a baby, who was pulled alive from under the rubble while seven other family members perished after an Israeli air strike struck Al Shati Refugee Camp in Gaza City. AFP
This satellite photo released by Planet Labs shows the Gaza Strip. AP Photo
A Palestinian girl sits on the floor next to her wounded grandmother at Al Shifa Hospital, after an Israeli air strike on Al Shati Refugee Camp in Gaza City. AFP
People inspect the damage done to Beit Hanoun after a night of Israeli raids in Gaza City, Gaza. Getty Images
A woman walks beside a broken asphalt, after an Israeli air strike on Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip. Getty Images
A car drives through rubble, after an Israeli raid in northern Gaza City. Getty Images
Palestinian girls who fled home due to Israeli air and artillery strikes, wait to fill bottles with water at a school hosting refugees in Gaza city. AFP
Israeli police arrest a Palestinian demonstrator during a protest in Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in east Jerusalem. EPA
Palestinian protesters hurl stones during clashes with Israeli forces in the Shuafat camp for Palestinian refugees, neighbouring the Israeli settlement of Ramat Shlomo, in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem. AFP
Need to know
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.
Company profile
Name: The Concept
Founders: Yadhushan Mahendran, Maria Sobh and Muhammad Rijal
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 7
Sector: Aviation and space industry
Funding: $250,000
Future plans: Looking to raise $1 million investment to boost expansion and develop new products
The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
Uefa Nations League: How it Works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final, first leg:
Liverpool 5
Salah (35', 45 1'), Mane (56'), Firmino (61', 68')
Roma 2
Dzeko (81'), Perotti (85' pen)
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
The bio
Favourite vegetable: Broccoli
Favourite food: Seafood
Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange
Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania
Favourite place to travel: Home in Kuwait.
Favourite place in the UAE: Al Qudra lakes
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm. Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
The Al Barzakh Festival takes place on Wednesday and Thursday at 7.30pm in the Red Theatre, NYUAD, Saadiyat Island. Tickets cost Dh105 for adults from platinumlist.net
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood. Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues. Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity. Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Golden Shoe top five (as of March 1):
Harry Kane, Tottenham, Premier League, 24 goals, 48 points
Edinson Cavani, PSG, Ligue 1, 24 goals, 48 points
Ciro Immobile, Lazio, Serie A, 23 goals, 46 points
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, Premier League, 23 goals, 46 points
Lionel Messi, Barcelona, La Liga, 22 goals, 44 points
Second ODI
England 322-7 (50 ovs)
India 236 (50 ovs)
England win by 86 runs
Next match: Tuesday, July 17, Headingley
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Top 10 most polluted cities
Bhiwadi, India
Ghaziabad, India
Hotan, China
Delhi, India
Jaunpur, India
Faisalabad, Pakistan
Noida, India
Bahawalpur, Pakistan
Peshawar, Pakistan
Bagpat, India
match info
Chelsea 2
Willian (13'), Ross Barkley (64')
Liverpool 0
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
