Live updates: Follow the latest news on US-Iran war
Last week, when an Iranian drone strike on a fuel tank briefly shuttered Dubai International Airport, one approaching Emirates airline flight from Shanghai was forced to reroute. By the time it landed, it had covered a marathon 11,000km and 20 hours of flying, including a stop in Bangladesh; the journey typically takes less than 10 hours.
While this is an extreme case, travellers across the UAE and Gulf are increasingly contending with longer flight times to some destinations since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. The UAE, home to the world’s busiest airport for international passengers in Dubai, has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks on the Gulf. The Ministry of Defence reports it has intercepted 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,789 drones as of March 23.
A non-stop flight from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to London, which typically takes between seven and eight hours, is now listed as taking 30 minutes more, at eight and a half hours.
On longer routes, the difference can be more pronounced. Flights from the UAE to New York’s John F Kennedy International Airport, which usually takes about 13 hours, are now often scheduled closer to 14 hours or more, as airlines take more circuitous paths.
By contrast, eastbound routes to India and parts of South-East Asia remain largely unaffected, with flight times to cities such as Mumbai, Delhi and Bangkok staying close to regular schedules.
“Yes, flights are taking longer both to and from the UAE because of restricted and sudden airspace closures due to the ongoing conflict,” Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at Strategic Aero Research, tells The National.
“It’s much safer to track a longer journey out of harm’s way. This allows some degree of airline operational normality; otherwise, any risk simply means airlines would be grounded for an indefinite period of time, which would lead to catastrophic losses.”
An Etihad Airways statement shared with The National explains that longer flights are a result of “adjusted routings as a precautionary measure”.
“These routings have been assessed and approved by the relevant aviation authorities and our own safety teams,” the representative said, adding that the airline “will return to standard routings as soon as it is safe to do so”.
The long way around
Airlines in Abu Dhabi and Dubai use “corridors” approved by the UAE General Civil Aviation Authority to allow planes to take off when threats are low, Paul Griffiths, chief executive of Dubai Airports, told CNN on Tuesday.
“We’ve been able to keep planes in the air and obviously to route through corridors that are properly designated by GCAA and holding aircraft at outstation [non-hub airports], so they can be safely diverted if there is a threat,” he said.
Planes flying west to Europe typically head south, away from Iran, as soon as they take-off, then head west over Saudi Arabia, data from flight-tracking platform Flightradar24 shows.
“Airlines that would ordinarily fly across the region, particularly on services between Europe and parts of Asia, are having to fly around to the north or the south,” John Strickland, a UK-based aviation analyst and director of JLS Consulting, tells The National. “This is adding an hour or more to flying times.”
Fewer routes, higher costs
The safer routes are, however, becoming more crowded, making delays more likely and pushing up operating costs. Longer flight times mean aircraft burn more fuel and are more prone to running late, Strickland adds.
Fuel prices have also risen, compounding the pressure on airlines and feeding into ticket prices.
“Depending on city pairs, certainly for the UK and Europe, there has already been price escalation, particularly London, Birmingham and Manchester,” Ahmad says. “Some flights have seen prices rise between 15 and 20 per cent. And if the war continues, there’s every chance that will become 25 to 30 per cent or even higher.”
IndiGo, India's biggest low-cost airline, told The National earlier this week that its new fuel charge has been added to the cost of every ticket directly because of “the significant surge in fuel prices following the ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East”.
Strickland says the loss of capacity normally provided by Gulf carriers on key Europe-Asia routes is also tightening supply. “This means that demand is greater than supply and the last available seats are typically sold at much higher prices.”
Road to recovery?
Leading Gulf airlines are gradually ramping up operations according to data from Flightradar24, with Emirates leading the way.
On March 23, Emirates operated 341 flights, up from just 24 on March 1, the day after the war began. Etihad operated 171 flights, while Air Arabia had 157, flydubai 120 and Qatar Airways 122, reflecting a gradual recovery in regional operations.
However, most European carriers continue to keep flights to the region on pause for the coming weeks and months. German airline Lufthansa and its group carriers, including Swiss, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, ITA Airways and Edelweiss, have suspended flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv until May 31, and to Abu Dhabi, Tehran, Muscat, Amman and Beirut until October 24.
Finland's Finnair has cancelled flights to and from Dubai until March 29, and to and from Doha until July 2.
British Airways told The National its flights to Amman, Bahrain, Dubai and Tel Aviv remain suspended until May 31. Flights to Doha are also suspended until April 30, with a limited schedule set to operate until May 31. The airline said its winter Abu Dhabi route are expected to restart on October 25 as planned.
But even as schedules rebuild, the shape of those journeys has changed. Flights are likely to remain longer, more complex and, for many travellers, more expensive in the weeks ahead.
For now, the priority remains clear – safety over speed – even if that means taking the long way around.
