Liverpool and Mohamed Salah playing a dangerous game of chicken - who will blink first?


Steve Luckings
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There are 31 days in December and we can expect all of them to be dominated by Mohamed Salah's will-he-or-won't-he sign a new deal at Liverpool saga.

The scene was set on the very first day of the 12th month. After another man-of-the-match performance in which Salah's second-half penalty gave the Reds a 2-0 win over Manchester City, a scoreline that flattered the English champions, the Egyptian forward was asked about his contract situation.

“Honestly it's in my head. Until now this is the last City game I will play for Liverpool so I was just going to enjoy it,” Salah told Sky Sports in a post-match interview.

“The atmosphere was incredible so I will enjoy every second here. Hopefully we just win the league and will see what will happen.”

His comments added to the sense of urgency that Liverpool are running out of time to make Salah an offer that will entice arguably the world's best player on current form to commit his future to Anfield.

Mohamed Salah celebrates in front of Liverpool supporters after scoring to make it 2-0 against Manchester City. PA
Mohamed Salah celebrates in front of Liverpool supporters after scoring to make it 2-0 against Manchester City. PA

His recent goal celebrations have also been telling. A week after scoring against Southampton to reveal a torso chiselled from granite, Salah celebrated his goal against City by sitting in front of jubilant Liverpool fans to soak up the acclaim.

The imagery was powerful, the message clear: Salah has the supporters on his side. In the court of public opinion, Salah is the proletariat taking on his paymasters to get a better deal. A fight for the little man.

If that analogy seems fanciful, that's because it is. Liverpool may be a behemoth of English football, Fenway Sports Group a multibillion conglomerate with interests in a several sports, but Salah is one of the best remunerated players on the planet.

According to his agent, Ramy Abbas Issa, Salah’s current Liverpool contract helps him to earn at least £1 million a week when image rights and playing targets are factored in.

Salah's claims that no one from Liverpool has spoken to him about a new contract may technically be true in terms of direct contact between club and player, but it is hard to credit that talks have not been held, or are ongoing, between club and agent.

The Egyptian is in a strong bargaining position. His form this season has been nothing short of sensational. His penalty against City was his 11th in the Premier League, helping propel Liverpool nine points clear at the top of the table.

They have a 100 per cent record in the new format Uefa Champions League, guaranteed of at least a place in the play-offs with three games remaining.

To be clear, Salah is well within his rights to get the best deal he can. Equally, Liverpool are entitled to negotiate what they feel is a fair offer, given the player's age and whether it fits in with the club's wage structure.

But without the exception, there can be no rule. There is no other player like Salah in world football. Time and again he proves the difference-maker in matches.

A Liverpool team without Salah next season would rely heavily on the effective but inferior Luis Diaz and the hard-working but low-scoring Darwin Nunez, while also having to recruit a player or players with only the potential to fill the considerable void his departure would leave.

Salah knows this. He will be 33 in June, something he feels is being used by the club to beat him with in their negotiations. The celebration against Southampton was a reminder of what a 32-year-old Salah looks like, about as close to zero per cent body fat as you will see, and the implicit message that he is capable of playing at this level for many more years.

But is Salah in danger of going to the well too many times? Following the comeback win against Southampton, Salah told waiting reporters he was disappointed not to have received a formal contract offer and a resolution is “not in my hands” and that he was “probably more out than in” the door at Anfield.

It's a well-worn line from the Egyptian, used repeatedly over the delay to his previous contract extension at Anfield. That process took more than 12 months to complete and ended with Salah signing a three-year deal in July 2022 worth a basic £350,000 a week.

Salah appears to be relying on that well-rehearsed strategy working for him again in his negotiations over a new contract. And while the groundswell of opinion is firmly on his side for now, that may well be tested if Salah continues to speak to the media after matches in which he portrays himself as the unwanted puppy in the shop window.

Newcastle are next up for the Reds followed by a short trip across Stanley Park to face local rivals Everton on Saturday. It will be the last Merseyside derby at Goodison Park before Everton move to a new stadium next season, saving Salah the trouble of telling everyone it will be his last at the ground.

Salah is free to negotiate with foreign clubs from January 1 as he enters the final months of his contract. There will be no shortage of suitors, with Al Ittihad expected to revive their interest in a player who would only elevate the Saudi Pro League to an even higher level.

His signing, an Arab player and devout Muslim, would eclipse even that of Cristiano Ronaldo, who joined Al Nassr as a free agent in January 2023. Liverpool will hope it doesn't come to that. The conundrum they face is relatively simple while also being entirely complex: Do they pay Salah what he wants or let him walk away for free?

The club are playing a dangerous game of chicken with their star player. Who will blink first?

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Squads

Sri Lanka Tharanga (c), Mathews, Dickwella (wk), Gunathilaka, Mendis, Kapugedera, Siriwardana, Pushpakumara, Dananjaya, Sandakan, Perera, Hasaranga, Malinga, Chameera, Fernando.

India Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Pandey, Rahane, Jadhav, Dhoni (wk), Pandya, Axar, Kuldeep, Chahal, Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar, Thakur.

Updated: December 02, 2024, 12:15 PM