Logic suggests New Zealand are up against it in Sunday’s T20 World Cup final against India.
After all, they are representatives of a country whose population (around 5.4 million) is only a little over half that of the city in which the final is being played (Ahmedabad is estimated to be home to around 9.3m). Plus, while cricket is the national obsession in India, it is not even the main sport in New Zealand.
And yet this is the fifth time out of the past 10 ICC competitions that the New Zealanders have made the final. Add to that the fact they have never lost to India in a T20 World Cup fixture - the Black Caps have played three, won three.
Their starting XI is every bit the match for their counterparts, and there are match-winners throughout. Who will play the decisive role? There are plenty of candidates.
Matt Henry v Sanju Samson
Modern life feels like it is in fast forward. Sanju Samson played an innings for the ages against West Indies in India’s decisive Super Eights fixtures on Sunday.
Then, four days later, he did exactly the same against England. “I thought that if you are in form, you should definitely contribute for your team in this game as well,” the opener said of his spellbinding 89 in the semi-final.
If he can make it a hat-trick of epic knocks, the title will surely be India’s again. Henry, who has been taken a wicket every 16.3 balls in this tournament, will have the first shot at getting Samson early.
Glenn Phillips v Axar Patel
For all Samson’s wizardly against England, he should really have been accounted for after just 15 runs. But Harry Brook inexplicably grassed a dolly of a chance.
Lapses like that can happen to anyone. Even Phillips – regarded by many as the world’s leading fielder – dropped a catch in New Zealand’s semi-final against South Africa, even if it was far tougher than Brook’s chance.
But Phillips is the standout in a side that could well regard themselves as the best fielding side in the competition – with perhaps Nepal being their main rivals to that claim.
India are not traditionally considered in that conversation, but they are no bad shakes in the field themselves, now, either.
In Axar Patel, who made two thrilling contributions to the win over England, they have a potential gamechanger.
Hardik Pandya v Finn Allen
New Zealand’s openers – Allen and Tim Seifert – have amassed 563 runs at a strike-rate of 182.3 between them so far in this World Cup.
Allen, who has been hitting at over 200, destroyed the tournament record for its fastest hundred, against a beleaguered South Africa, last time out.
As with Samson, it is difficult to imagine him being able to repeat the excellence of his 33-ball blitz two games running, but India will keenly feel the need to dismiss him early.
Pandya is India’s spare bowler and not regarded as the same threat level as the others, but he does have a happy knack of making vital incisions.
Against England in the semi-final, that took the form of removing the dangerous Phil Salt with the first ball he sent down.
Jasprit Bumrah v Everyone
T20 cricket is enthralled by data analysis. And yet the coach of its leading protagonist thinks it is all a load of bunk. Which is easy to say when you have Bumrah in your ranks, as Gautam Gambhir readily admits.
“I don't believe in data, honestly,” India’s coach said after they beat West Indies.
“I absolutely do not believe in it, because I feel it's more about instinct. [Data] is very overrated. For me, I think we are very fortunate that we've got world-class players.”
Which is undeniable. Ne
w Zealand could do all the analysis they want, and have always been adept at reducing the disparity in resources between them and cricket’s big boys.
But then Bumrah could just come along and decide the game in India’s favour anyway. No one has yet found a way to combat him.
