The good news on the UN’s plan for Syria is that there is a plan. The bad news is there’s no telling if the plan will even be implemented, let alone work.
Over the weekend, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution for the first time since the start of the Syrian conflict, that will begin the process of finding a solution. A ceasefire is due to start in January, followed by formal talks between the government of Bashar Al Assad and the opposition. A unity government should follow in six months, followed by elections after 18.
Actually getting the United Nations to agree has been a long drawn-out process – recall that former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan resigned as special envoy in 2012 because the Security Council had constantly deadlocked on the issue. But the fact there is, finally, a plan is a positive development. The Gulf states have made no secret of their desire to see Mr Al Assad go – and they are not alone in believing that, at the end of this transition, he must be gone, even if he plays some role during it.
A plan that gives him a seat at the table, and, of course, implicitly accepts his legitimacy, is a bitter pill to swallow. Far more bitter, of course, for the thousands of Syrians tortured, raped, imprisoned and maimed during this long conflict. But if it leads to an end to the civil war, then it is a development worth pursuing.
The reasons why it is so important for a plan to exist are not hard to see. Last week, the UN refugee agency released a report showing a staggering 60 million people were forced to flee war, violence and persecution in 2014 – and the agency warned it expected the number to rise this year.
The main contributor is the war in Syria, which has so far forced four million Syrians to leave their country, seeking refuge in neighbouring Middle Eastern nations, or making the dangerous trek to Europe. Perhaps another seven million are internally displaced inside Syria. The suffering of those languishing in Lebanon or Greece is unimaginable, and without an end to the war, their number will only increase.
A credible plan, then, that finally ends the civil war must be a welcome development. But the crucial caveat is “credible”. After so much suffering, Syrians will not accept a plan that doesn’t deliver some measure of justice. A plan that merely prolonged the war would be a waste of time, and would lead to a further waste of life.
