At the start of April, during the height of the Iran war, Iraqis of all backgrounds took to the streets to celebrate something special. Aymen Hussein’s winning goal against Bolivia did more than send the country’s footballers to the 2026 World Cup – it sparked joyous scenes across a nation that for too long has been pushed and pulled between the agendas of rival foreign powers.
Although the lift provided by that goal in Monterrey will continue to buoy the national mood, the hard business of maintaining Iraqi sovereignty during a time of acute regional crisis continues. Despite the shaky ceasefire in place, Iraqi government representatives have had to account for attacks on Gulf neighbours purportedly launched from its territory. On April 13, Iraq’s charge d’affaires in Bahrain was summoned to receive a formal complaint about drone attacks. Iraq’s envoy to Saudi Arabia was summoned the day before.
Iraqi sovereignty will not have been boosted by the reported visit of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Esmail Qaani to Baghdad at the weekend. Mr Qaani’s trip is the latest example of the pervasive and pernicious presence of Tehran in Iraq’s internal politics.
Mr Qaani, who took command of the IRGC’s Quds Force after the January 2020 American assassination of Qassem Suleimani in Baghdad, met Iraqi militias aligned with Tehran. Although Iranian patronage of Iraqi paramilitarism is nothing new, the visit of such a senior figure – during wartime and while political factions are jostling to form a new government – demonstrates that Iraq’s security and stability cannot be taken for granted.
IRGC visits are an intervention that most Iraqis don’t want. Despite deep misgivings about the role of Israel and the US in the Middle East, many Iraqis are also exasperated by interference from Tehran. Polls have repeatedly shown that a clear majority of citizens regard Iran, its nuclear programme, expansionist policies and its cultivation of armed regional proxies as threats to their country’s security as well as that of the wider Middle East. This is not to discount the support that some Iran-aligned political parties and armed groups enjoy, but most Iraqis want a future in which their country is not a battleground for outsiders.
Sadly, such a situation has already developed. Since the start of the war in February, Iraqi militias loyal to Iran have attacked bases that host US forces, hotels claimed to be housing American personnel in Baghdad, and northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Militias have also struck at US-operated energy infrastructure and have attacked Jordan and the Gulf. Retaliatory American and Israeli air strikes have hit the headquarters of Iraq’s umbrella group for Iran-backed Shiite militias, the Popular Mobilisation Forces.
Iraqis will be well aware that not only are pro-Iran militias drawing US and Israeli fire, they are also endangering their country’s ties with other Arab nations. In late March, officials told The National that Iraq was risking regional isolation if it failed to rein in these factions. Already the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan have said that Iraq’s government must act to “preserve fraternal relations and avoid further escalation”.
Baghdad has a difficult task in front of it. Direct confrontation with militias that are embedded in Iraq’s politics and economy would undoubtedly lead to bloodshed. Providing incentives for disarmament, as well as the replacement of key leaders in the security apparatus with nationalist-minded officers, could help to mitigate the problem.
However, doing so in wartime and while Tehran remains determined to maintain its foothold in Iraq, means no-one should expect a quick resolution of this issue. And yet, one must be found if Iraq is to remain a truly sovereign state, one that can deliver for all its citizens and play a constructive regional role.
