An anxious Middle East awoke this morning to an announcement from US President Donald Trump that instead of Iran’s “whole civilisation” dying overnight as he threatened on Tuesday afternoon, the region was witnessing a “big day for world peace”.
Regardless of what happens next, the UAE has proved its resilience in the face of unprecedented aggression. Although every person lost to weeks of Iranian attacks has been a human tragedy, life for citizens and residents in the country has largely continued as normal. This is a kind of victory; as Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, put it this morning, the UAE “triumphed in a war we sincerely sought to avoid”.
Given the appalling loss of innocent life and the destruction wrought on civilian infrastructure from Lebanon to Oman over the past five weeks, this step back from the brink will be welcomed by many, regardless of how conditional it may be. Even US Vice President JD Vance earlier today described the pause as “fragile”. However, for this 11th-hour reprieve to have a lasting effect, it must not stop here. Many will share the hopes of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun when he said the ceasefire could be a "first step towards a final and comprehensive agreement on the various issues that constitute triggers for our region”.
These issues are legion. Iran’s government and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps cannot be allowed to continue their global economic extortion in the Strait of Hormuz. Nor can Tehran be allowed to destabilise its neighbours with drones, missiles and proxy militias. Similarly, any ceasefire that allows Israel to continue its bombing and occupation of Lebanon and its other Arab neighbours will be fatally compromised.
The UAE and other Gulf countries are not parties to this war, but they continue to suffer attacks carried out by a damaged and disjointed Iranian war machine. Today, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain all reported attempted drone and missile strikes. So, although the region may welcome this pause in hostilities, Tehran has a very long way to go to regain the trust of its neighbours.
This precarious situation allows no room for complacency. Instead, it demands skilful and realistic statecraft to turn this military pause into a political and diplomatic solution. This is what makes the recent failure of Bahrain’s bid to win UN backing for a resolution calling for “all necessary means” to safeguard shipping in the Strait of Hormuz so disappointing. Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf have had worldwide consequences; they demand a united response.
What happens next is unclear and there are many caveats to this ceasefire. Lebanon remains under Israeli bombardment. Yemen’s Houthi rebels still pose a threat to another global chokepoint, the Bab Al Mandeb Strait. Iran-linked militias in Iraq remain armed and dangerous. In addition, the future of the Strait of Hormuz is far from clear.
Mr Trump’s most recent announcement referred to the Middle East being on the cusp of a “golden age”. Such an age cannot come about when Iran’s leaders can throttle global trade, deny energy to developing countries and bully their neighbours. Nor can it come about when a rogue Israel reserves to right to strike at will. Resolving these critical issues is what the vast majority of people in the Middle East want to see.
