Last night’s alarming attack on Al Udeid air base in Qatar and an apparent truce between Israel and Iran, which is already marred by claims of it having been breached, are pointed reminders of the kind of uncertainty that the people of the Middle East have been forced to live with for far too long.
Although it is welcome that noone lost their life in Iran’s retaliatory – if limited – strike on Al Udeid, there are reports from Israel and Iran that several people in both countries have lost their lives in subsequent attacks. The confusion surrounding the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump is concerning. For true stability, the region needs a comprehensive peace deal, not temporary and uncertain truces.
Despite the many missteps from all sides that have led the Middle East to this point, there is still a window of opportunity to not only halt this crisis but find a resolution to the long-running nuclear issue and work towards ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, that deadly mix of displacement, military occupation and wanton violence that has poisoned relationships in the region for decades. There are several reasons to believe that this opportunity for peace is a real one.
Simply put, neither Israel, Iran nor the US has anything to gain in the long term by continuing to launch air strikes and bombing raids. Tehran in particular has more to lose than most: the country has been militarily exposed, its sanctions-hit economy is severely strained, many of its armed proxies have been weakened and its nuclear programme has been set back. In addition, its attack on Al Udeid – despite the semantics about it being a US target, not a Qatari one – is a grave misstep that has aggravated an important GCC partner.
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the long list of destroyed Iranian military and nuclear assets, the killing of many senior commanders and nuclear scientists, and the direct involvement of the US in Israel’s war are all considerable “wins”, as is the domestic political capital these developments will have earned him. It is difficult to see what benefits, if any, would come from continued aggression against Tehran. On the contrary, an American administration that is keen to avoid getting sucked into another so-called forever war overseas may decide that the time for de-escalation is now.
For such de-escalation to be more than a mere break in hostilities, there needs to be a more visionary approach. If Israel's campaign against Iran comes to an end, so too must its appalling war in Gaza. Iran should also step back; its missile attacks on Israel are not the deterrent that Tehran may think they are. Real security comes from negotiated settlements.
In this situation, many unknowns remain – particularly the status of Iran’s nuclear programme. To resolve such uncertainty and find solutions that satisfy all sides, not only must a ceasefire be made to hold, but there should also be a redoubled effort to restart regional dialogue and rebuild trust. That will be difficult but the alternative – as we have seen – is even worse. The future of the Middle East cannot be left hanging in the air.
