There’s an old slogan that used to be found on T-shirts sold to visitors in Havana, the Cuban capital – “Cuba Si!” or in English, “Yes, Cuba”. It goes back to a 1961 documentary about the Cuban communist revolution.
Led by Fidel Castro, the revolutionaries overthrew the Cuban leader Fulgencio Batista. Nowadays, Fidel’s younger brother Raul is still (at least nominally) the leader, although he turns 95 years old this week. But the slogan “Yes, Cuba” might be the answer to the question about US President Donald Trump’s next foreign policy adventure, drawing in American forces.
You might think that given the unresolved conflict with Iran, the argument against further US military adventures is obvious, but domestic political arguments in favour of turning the screws on Cuba are also obvious. Mr Trump’s great skill has been to command the American political agenda and the world’s attention.
He does it by focusing and refocusing on different conflicts with bewildering speed. Beyond the attacks on Iran, there was the kidnapping of then-Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January, rumblings about invading Greenland, arguments about Nato and the fact that the war in Ukraine continues unabated, plus suggestions that the US could annex Canada and US involvement in Nigeria and elsewhere.
Behind all this activity, however, Mr Trump’s popularity ratings have cratered, dropping 2 per cent last week to minus 24 per cent, a new low. Republicans in Congress face November’s difficult midterm elections. The cost of fuel means the summer driving season for American holidaymakers is going to be costly.
Perhaps these difficulties suggest, you might think, that the US President should avoid further foreign adventures, but Mr Trump’s psychology may suggest otherwise. And so may some very hard politics. All this points to the White House increasing pressure on a long-time American communist foe, for political as well as ideological reasons.
American governments have always shown an acute interest in Cuba, although that interest has often ended in failure. Then-president John F Kennedy’s administration in the 1960s encouraged the CIA-inspired fiasco known as the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba by anti-communist exiles. Those events beginning in April 1961 ultimately led to a very dangerous stand-off with Fidel Castro’s allies, the government of the Soviet Union.
On various occasions, Washington has designated Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism. The US has also invaded and occupied Cuba several times, without long-term success – in 1898, during the Spanish-American War; then from 1906-09; again in 1912; and once more from 1917-1922.
What is happening now is not – as far as anyone knows – preparation for an invasion, but the US is tightening economic sanctions in the hope that the Cuban government may be overthrown by its own increasingly unhappy people. The US Attorney General has charged Raul Castro with murders dating back to 1996. That’s when two civilian American planes were downed over the Straits of Florida that separate the US from Cuba.
On board were US Cuban-American citizens who worked for an anti-Castro organisation called “Brothers to the Rescue”. That organisation dropped anti-communist leaflets on Cuba and helped Cuban refugees in the US. The current American accusation is that Raul Castro ordered the Cuban air force to shoot down the civilian planes.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of that incident three decades ago, the indictment of the Cuban leader comes as the country’s economy seems almost on the verge of collapse. Food is in short supply. There is not enough fuel for tractors and farm machinery. Millions of Cubans are reported to be going hungry. There are also reports of an increased American naval and air presence in the region.
All this comes as one of the most prominent members of the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, happens to be a Cuban American with – like many Cuban Americans – a long history of loathing of the Castro family and their regime. Mr Rubio says publicly that Cuba poses “a national security threat” to the US, and while he wishes “a diplomatic solution” to US differences with Cuba, the problem is – as he himself concedes – not very likely to be solved that way.
As he put it: “I’m just being honest with you, you know. The likelihood of that happening given who we are dealing with is not high.” Mr Rubio calls Cuba “one of the leading sponsors of terrorism in the entire region”. The Cuban government responds that the Americans are trying to “instigate military aggression” by “ruthlessly and systematically” attacking Cuba.
Mr Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who escaped from the island in the run-up to the 1959 Cuban revolution, and like many Cuban Americans settled in Florida. Their hostility to communism is well documented. Of course – as always – it’s difficult to tell exactly how far Mr Trump will push this hard anti-Cuban line.
What we can say is that successfully toppling a communist regime less than 150 kilometres away from Florida might provide a very significant boost to a less-than-popular US President ahead of November’s hugely significant midterm elections.
And so, Cuba, Si? Yes, Cuba? This is not a prediction. But it is a serious possibility.
