Today Europe finds itself at a crossroads, torn between security interests and the potentially devastating economic consequences of Israel and America’s war with Iran.
The need to keep US President Donald Trump on side in the ongoing war in Ukraine as well as to maintain strategic alignment with the US on trade initially trumped concerns over international law and the future of the “rules-based order”. But with the bloc’s economic lifeline threatened, the continent faces a stark choice: assist the US and Israel in defeating the Iranian regime or accept the consequences of a prolonged conflict.
While European leaders are divided over the necessity and legality of America’s war with Iran, most have shied away from calling Mr Trump out on it. With the notable exception of Spain, they have avoided direct confrontation; that could change as Europe faces a price spike in gas and oil pops above $100 dollars a barrel.
The surge in gas prices alone has already added $1.5 billion to Europe’s energy costs, sending governments scrambling for solutions. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, reluctant to get on board with President Trump’s war machine despite the UK’s “special relationship” with the US, assured British households over the weekend of government support for energy bills, despite uncertainty about how he will fund it.
Surging energy prices are forecast to have less of an impact on inflation in the US than on European economies; and the White House has signalled it is prepared for a sustained period of higher prices. That leaves Italy, Germany and the UK, heavily reliant on gas imports, to bear the brunt of the economic pain.
The question is what leverage Europe can have with an administration that views it as weak, divided and incomprehensibly committed to energy policies that are bad for European countries’ own national interests.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his energy war in Europe during the fall of 2021, the continent was disastrously unprepared for disruption to cheap Russian gas. And while the war in Ukraine may have forced Europe to diversify its energy mix, the bloc refused to reverse most of its climate change commitments, leaving the continent just as vulnerable today.
While 60 per cent of liquefied natural gas imports to Europe may come from the US, supply disruptions from the Gulf could see less product on the market, prompting prolonged price spikes for European buyers. Whether the price squeeze will prompt European leaders to energy pragmatism only time will tell; but the crisis in the Gulf exposes the ongoing weakness of these countries caught in an “uneven” transition.
As Europe’s energy crisis deepens, its leaders face a stark choice: support the US and Israel in defeating the Iranian regime or accept the consequences of a prolonged conflict. That’s because the continent still refuses to resolve the one issue that remains existential: energy.
