As the government of Bashar Al Assad in Syria collapsed, Hezbollah and Iran were watching closely to see how this would affect their weapons supply lines between Iraq and Lebanon. Even before Mr Al Assad fled his capital, the news last Friday that the Albukamal crossing had been taken over by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a US ally, must have been harsh, since the crossing was used to rearm Hezbollah.
More broadly, what the region has been witnessing is the crippling of the so-called Axis of Resistance that Iran had built up over the years – the regional alliance of states and non-state actors, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, Syria under Mr Al Assad, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as sectarian Islamist militias from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 last year, this network sought to respond in a co-ordinated way to the Israeli retaliation against Gaza. It did so under the rubric of a highly perilous strategy devised by Iran and its allies called the “unity of the arenas”, which held that if Israel attacked one member of the Axis of Resistance, other members would intervene in support of their ally.
The consequences were catastrophic for the Axis. Ironically, Mr Al Assad appeared to have anticipated the risks, and tried to steer Syria clear of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. However, this could not save him, as the Lebanese conflict’s undermining of one of the main pillars supporting his rule, namely Hezbollah, may have accelerated the offensive against the areas his government controlled at the time, even if it was not necessarily the cause.
In Lebanon, until Mr Al Assad’s downfall, Hezbollah and Iran always sought to return to the situation in which they found themselves prior to October 7 last year. There was something profoundly unrealistic in such thinking, particularly after the Israelis launched their onslaught against Lebanon in September that targeted Hezbollah and led to the killing of its former secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. While the environment had changed, Hezbollah and Iran persisted in putting up a front suggesting that nothing had.
Hezbollah continues to adopt this pose, with its secretary general, Naim Qassem, seeking to limit the scope of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in a speech on social media last Thursday, arguing that the resolution only applies south of the Litani River. In fact, it encompasses much more, reaffirming another resolution, Resolution 1559, which aims to disarm all militias in Lebanon.
The end of Mr Al Assad’s rule has completely transformed the regional context. Iran’s network of alliances may still exist on paper, but its linchpin, Syria, is no more. Hezbollah now finds itself isolated in Lebanon, facing a society in which most political factions deeply oppose the party’s retention of its weapons. Gone are the days when Iranian officials could fly into Beirut to issue instructions to Lebanese officials.
Additionally, of what value is the Axis of Resistance if Israel has so thoroughly reworked the deterrence equation to its advantage? In other words, if attacking Israel invites major retaliatory destruction of the territories of the Axis, especially of Iran itself, how probable is it that members will engage in future military actions against Israel?
Hezbollah may soon feel the backlash of anger from Lebanon’s Shiite community. Already, there is much denigration of Iran within the community, which feels Tehran abandoned it. Mr Al Assad’s suspiciously swift demise will only add to its mistrust. What were years of sacrifice for, many will ask, when young Hezbollah men went to fight and be killed in Syria?
What purpose did Hezbollah’s opening of a front with Israel serve, other than to bolster Iran and its interests? Large swathes of Shiite-majority areas in Lebanon now lie in ruins, all to preserve an Iranian-led alliance that folded like a cheap suit in Damascus.
Starting today, Hezbollah and the Iranians will need to reconsider their entire regional strategy. Iran’s power was anchored in fragmented societies in dysfunctional Arab states – states often perverted to serve Tehran’s interests. This has already generated great resentment throughout societies in the Middle East.
Hezbollah, too, must engage in a full reassessment of its actions in Lebanon and Syria. It can no longer ignore that its behaviour at home provoked considerable hostility among the various communities, which left the party hanging alone in its war with Israel. Mr Nasrallah’s killing, and that of his apparent successor, Hashem Safieddine, compelled Iran to take a leadership role in Hezbollah that only further distanced it from Lebanon’s reality. Yet for now, the party stubbornly refuses to engage in a mea culpa, and it is likely to continue defending its weapons whatever happens.
If it does so, this would be another sign of its hubris and tone-deafness. Until a few days ago, Mr Qassem vowed to stand by Syria against the “terrorist groups”, though Mr Al Assad’s fate was sealed. The new secretary general is, plainly, no more than a facade of Iranian power, but Hezbollah would be making a mistake to presume it can survive in the treacherous Lebanese sectarian context if it remains an Iranian ventriloquist’s dummy.
Hezbollah may be making a mistake similar to Mr Al Assad's. He refused to negotiate when he had the upper hand, not wanting to concede anything from a position of strength, in favour of valuable gains. That is why he lost everything. By refusing to make concessions in Lebanon, Hezbollah, too, may soon find itself having to choose between increasingly dismal options.
Live updates: Follow the latest on Syria
The Ashes
Results
First Test, Brisbane: Australia won by 10 wickets
Second Test, Adelaide: Australia won by 120 runs
Third Test, Perth: Australia won by an innings and 41 runs
Fourth Test: Melbourne: Drawn
Fifth Test: Australia won by an innings and 123 runs
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: Eghel De Pine, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Sheaar, Szczepan Mazur, Saeed Al Shamsi
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA) Group 3 Dh500,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Torch, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (TB) Listed Dh380,000 1,600m | Winner: Forjatt, Chris Hayes, Nicholas Bachalard
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,400m | Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Ridha ben Attia
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Qader, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roaulle
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Could%20We%20Be%20More
%3Cp%3EArtist%3A%20Kokoroko%3Cbr%3ELabel%3A%20Brownswood%20Recordings%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
Votes
Total votes: 1.8 million
Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes
Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes
Forced%20Deportations
%3Cp%3EWhile%20the%20Lebanese%20government%20has%20deported%20a%20number%20of%20refugees%20back%20to%20Syria%20since%202011%2C%20the%20latest%20round%20is%20the%20first%20en-mass%20campaign%20of%20its%20kind%2C%20say%20the%20Access%20Center%20for%20Human%20Rights%2C%20a%20non-governmental%20organization%20which%20monitors%20the%20conditions%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20in%20Lebanon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%9CIn%20the%20past%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20General%20Security%20was%20responsible%20for%20the%20forced%20deportation%20operations%20of%20refugees%2C%20after%20forcing%20them%20to%20sign%20papers%20stating%20that%20they%20wished%20to%20return%20to%20Syria%20of%20their%20own%20free%20will.%20Now%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20army%2C%20specifically%20military%20intelligence%2C%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20security%20operation%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Mohammad%20Hasan%2C%20head%20of%20ACHR.%3Cbr%3EIn%20just%20the%20first%20four%20months%20of%202023%20the%20number%20of%20forced%20deportations%20is%20nearly%20double%20that%20of%20the%20entirety%20of%202022.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ESince%20the%20beginning%20of%202023%2C%20ACHR%20has%20reported%20407%20forced%20deportations%20%E2%80%93%20200%20of%20which%20occurred%20in%20April%20alone.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20comparison%2C%20just%20154%20people%20were%20forcfully%20deported%20in%202022.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Violence%20
%3Cp%3EInstances%20of%20violence%20against%20Syrian%20refugees%20are%20not%20uncommon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJust%20last%20month%2C%20security%20camera%20footage%20of%20men%20violently%20attacking%20and%20stabbing%20an%20employee%20at%20a%20mini-market%20went%20viral.%20The%20store%E2%80%99s%20employees%20had%20engaged%20in%20a%20verbal%20altercation%20with%20the%20men%20who%20had%20come%20to%20enforce%20an%20order%20to%20shutter%20shops%2C%20following%20the%20announcement%20of%20a%20municipal%20curfew%20for%20Syrian%20refugees.%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CThey%20thought%20they%20were%20Syrian%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20the%20mayor%20of%20the%20Nahr%20el%20Bared%20municipality%2C%20Charbel%20Bou%20Raad%2C%20of%20the%20attackers.%3Cbr%3EIt%20later%20emerged%20the%20beaten%20employees%20were%20Lebanese.%20But%20the%20video%20was%20an%20exemplary%20instance%20of%20violence%20at%20a%20time%20when%20anti-Syrian%20rhetoric%20is%20particularly%20heated%20as%20Lebanese%20politicians%20call%20for%20the%20return%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20to%20Syria.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
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As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 3 (Abraham 11', 17', 74')
Luton Town 1 (Clark 30')
Man of the match Abraham (Chelsea)
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
Oppenheimer
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The five pillars of Islam
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Fixture and table
UAE finals day: Friday, April 13 at Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
- 3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
- 6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership – final standings
- Dubai Exiles
- Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Jebel Ali Dragons
- Dubai Hurricanes
- Dubai Sports City Eagles
- Abu Dhabi Saracens
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices