Relying simply on military force to achieve your objectives, while your adversaries are also focused on politics, is a losing strategy

The tensions with Israel may not result in another war but if they do, reconstituting the current state would be near impossible

The behaviour of some Lebanese senior leaders is destroying what remains of the Taif Accord

A full-blown conflict inside Lebanon that involves Israel, Hezbollah and Iran is unlikely to break out

There are parallel calculations by both men, involving facing a backlash and accepting defeat

In an election year in the US, important constituencies in the Democratic Party would turn against Biden if he opposed Israel

Its deterrence equation with Tehran's proxies relies on brinkmanship, and stamina on the other side is waning

As French and British imperialists found out, no colonial model can ever work in the face of strong local nationalism

If there were political aims, we can only guess what they were. Last week, Hamas reportedly sought a return to the status quo before October 7

Hezbollah has effectively hijacked the state’s prerogative to declare war, and it has taken Lebanon into a risky conflict with Israel

The development, itself an outcome of Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, may revive the idea of a 'shared neighbourhood' between regional powers

A five-country group assisting Lebanon is about to meet in the coming weeks to discuss the Lebanese presidential election

Biden has no realistic political endgame for the war and little regional backing for anything he proposes

Tensions continue to simmer yet an escalation has so far been avoided. This is deliberate

Threats may be more a part of Israel's negotiating strategy than an intent to widen the conflict