Thomas Watkins is Washington bureau chief at The National
May 31, 2024
Donald Trump is a convicted felon. A jury of his peers found the Republican presidential candidate guilty of falsifying business records in a sordid case dating back to a one-night stand he maintains he didn't have with an adult film star in 2006.
The verdict came as something of a shock. Pundits had been speculating for weeks that a mistrial was likely because of some of the convoluted testimony from the government's star witness, Michael Cohen, a convicted perjurer.
But in the end, it only took the jurors, at least one of whom was presumed to be a Trump supporter, less than 12 hours to reach a verdict in a case the former president had repeatedly claimed was worthless and never should have been brought.
The speed of the verdict in New York appeared to blindside “Teflon Don”, who seemed tired and crestfallen as he lumbered from the courtroom to decry his 34 felonies and the entire case against him as “rigged” by the Biden administration and a “disgrace”.
“The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people,” Trump told reporters. “I'm a very innocent man.”
He's right. Election Day is the only decision of consequence for Trump, and there's every chance his conviction will help him with his true believers, who take at face value his claims that all the criminal cases against him are politically motivated.
After all, it didn't matter that Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, or that he was found liable of sexual assault and defamation, or that the Trump Organisation was convicted in a criminal fraud scheme.
Surely, therefore, it won't matter that Trump must forever carry the mantle of being the first US president to be convicted of a felony.
But if we delve a little deeper, it's not quite so simple.
An ABC/Ipsos poll this month found that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony in this case, 80 per cent of his supporters would vote for him anyway.
That, however, leaves 16 per cent who said they would reconsider their support, and 4 per cent who said they would withdraw it.
Though Trump is pulling ahead of President Joe Biden in nationwide polls, a potential loss of support from 20 per cent of Republicans would see the deeply unpopular, 81-year-old Democrat get a second term despite his disastrously inept campaign.
The election will probably be determined by a few thousand votes in a few swing states, so even a small movement of voters could have an impact.
At least one Trump supporter appears to have looked at the evidence against him and decided he should be convicted: the juror who said he gets his news from Fox and Trump-owned Truth Social platform, a febrile echo chamber of far-right extremism and cultlike homages to the former president.
Trump says the case is far from over and he will almost certainly appeal, but for now at least he bears the stain of being the first former or sitting president to be convicted of a crime, surpassing even Richard Nixon's ignominy.
Perhaps Trump will have better luck at one of his upcoming trials on more serious charges of election interference and mishandling classified documents, though the Republican-skewed judiciary may quash these cases before Trump stands trial.
As has been oft noted, there's almost literally nothing Trump can do wrong in the eyes of his ardent Maga (Make America Great Again) supporters.
To refresh memories of just a few outrages that only boosted his standing among his fans: he said some of the racists at a white nationalist rally were “very fine people” in 2017, he called US troops and service members killed in the Second World War and Vietnam “suckers” and “losers” and he called for (and largely implemented) the “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the US.
Trump famously said it best in 2016, when he proclaimed: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK.”
On November 5, Americans will decide whether they agree with him.
Former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak to the press after he was convicted in his criminal trial in New York. AFP
Trump stands surrounded by his legal team as he exits the courtroom. AFP
A television screen shows the news of the verdict in Trump's criminal trial. Reuters
A man holds a placard outside Manhattan criminal court following the verdict. Reuters
A demonstrator holds a placard outside the court following the verdict. Reuters
Trump alongside his lawyer Todd Blanche ahead of jury deliberations during his criminal trial for allegedly covering up hush-money payments. AFP
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar was one of many politicians who attended the New York trial to show support for Trump. EPA
A court sketch of Robert Costello being cross-examined by prosecutor Susan Hoffinger before Judge Juan Merchan. Reuters
A court sketch of Trump yawning during the trial. Media outlets reported the former president has often been seen keeping his eyes closed during proceedings. Reuters
Michael Cohen, former lawyer and fixer for Trump, testified against the former president. Reuters
Stormy Daniels, the adult film star who allegedly received a hush-money payment from the Trump campaign in 2016, leaves court. AFP
A sketch shows jurors taking notes as Ms Daniels testifies on May 7. Elizabeth Williams / AP
Judge Juan Merchan is presiding over Trump's case. AP
Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr and the former president's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, arrive at the court. Reuters
Trump supporters gather near the courthouse in New York. Getty Images / AFP
Trump supporters post signs as they gather near the courthouse during the trial. Getty Images / AFP
Members of the media wait in front of the courthouse in Manhattan. Getty Images / AFP
Trump speaks during a rally in the South Bronx in New York during a day off from his trial. Getty Images / AFP
Trump awaits the start of his trial earlier in the week in New York. AP
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
UAE Falcons
Carly Lewis (captain), Emily Fensome, Kelly Loy, Isabel Affley, Jessica Cronin, Jemma Eley, Jenna Guy, Kate Lewis, Megan Polley, Charlie Preston, Becki Quigley and Sophie Siffre. Deb Jones and Lucia Sdao – coach and assistant coach.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah 5.10pm: Continous 5.45pm: Raging Torrent 6.20pm: West Acre 7pm: Flood Zone 7.40pm: Straight No Chaser 8.15pm: Romantic Warrior 8.50pm: Calandogan 9.30pm: Forever Young
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
