Even as the US prepares for diplomatic talks with Iran, the White House is seeking input from prominent Iranian Americans who could assist in any transition should supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei be toppled.
A source close to American efforts to find an alternative to the current regime in Iran told The National that President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is closely involved. He is helping to assemble a group of Iranian-American business leaders to advise on the formation of some form of transitional entity to help govern Iran in the event of the regime's collapse, the source said.
A second source also said Mr Kushner is involved. The White House did not comment for this story.
The first source, who is involved in the White House discussions, said the Trump administration wants to convene a meeting of Iranian opposition figures in Palm Beach, Florida, where the President's Mar-a-Lago estate is located. The meeting could happen as soon as this weekend but logistics are complex. It was not clear if organisers want it to take place at Mar-a-Lago or nearby, the source said.
Mr Trump is considering several divergent paths for Iran, each with political risk and geopolitical uncertainty, as his advisers prepare to meet for nuclear talks in Oman on Friday.
Deep concessions from Tehran on its nuclear programme and other crucial issues, including the range of its ballistic missiles and treatment of its people, could provide Mr Trump with a way to avoid military conflict.
But backing away from strikes after assembling an “armada” off Iran and saying America is “locked and loaded” would infuriate many Iranians. Large parts of the community would see it as emboldening the regime after the killings of thousands of protesters, particularly after Mr Trump told Iranians to keep protesting and said “help is on its way”.
America's Iranian diaspora is the largest of any country. Estimates vary but more than 500,000 people of Iranian descent live in the US, including many successful and influential business leaders who want to see the end of Mr Khamenei's regime and the opening up of Iran for the first time since the 1979 revolution.
Among those pushing for regime change in Iran is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last monarch. He has a large network of supporters outside Iran and many protesters were heard chanting his name in recent demonstrations. He has previously said he wants to offer himself as a “transitional leader” and he is not seeking a broader political position, unless the Iranian people vote for that.
It was not clear the extent to which Mr Pahlavi is involved in the continuing White House discussions.
Talks in Oman will be led by Mr Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff on the American side, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi across the table.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday that diplomacy is always Mr Trump's “first option”.
But “while these negotiations are taking place, I would remind the Iranian regime that the President has many options at his disposal, aside from diplomacy, as the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military in the history of the world", she told reporters.
She said Mr Trump's demands included “zero nuclear capability”. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said for talks to be “meaningful” they would have to include limiting the range of Iran's ballistic missiles. They would also have to address its “sponsorship of terrorist organisations across the region”, its nuclear programme and its treatment of its own people.
Mr Khamenei on Sunday warned that any US attack on his country would start a regional conflict.
Mr Trump frequently leans on trusted members of his inner circle to take the lead on negotiating foreign policy matters, especially Mr Kushner and Mr Witkoff. Both were heavily involved in establishing Mr Trump's Board of Peace initiative for Gaza.
Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the regime in Tehran is claiming that America's willingness to return to talks is evidence of US weakness or lack of options.
And despite Friday's talks, many Washington analysts think military action is the most likely outcome.
Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Israel is lobbying for strikes.
“The more time passes, the more [Mr Trump] is going to be just convinced, because he's an impatient person, that he needs to take military action,” Mr Parsi said. “He's just not going to have the energy to constantly push back against the Israelis.”
Edmund Fitton-Brown, who was British ambassador to Yemen in from 2015-2017, said it is hard to see Tehran conceding enough in talks for the US credibly to be able to claim that it has made a breakthrough.
“And this is where I think that probably military conflict is more likely than not, and that is because I don't think that the US can walk away without having extracted major concessions from Iran without a significant loss, reputational hit to the President,” said Mr Fitton-Brown, who is now a senior fellow at the FDD think tank in Washington.
Jihan Abdalla contributed to this report.
