US, Arab, European and Israeli proposals have coalesced this week at the UN into what diplomats describe as the most serious attempt yet to end the war in Gaza and shape the "day after".
The National reported at the start of the week that the US had decided to present a comprehensive plan, and that Washington might ask all relevant parties to formally sign on to it.
On Tuesday, the road map – called the "Trump 21-point plan for peace in the Middle East and Gaza" – was introduced by US President Donald Trump to Arab officials and others.
The road map, shaped over months of quiet consultation, is now regarded as the leading option for halting the devastating war in the Gaza Strip, even if some parties do not endorse all of the elements in it, The National understands.
Previous ceasefire efforts collapsed without approval from either Israel or Hamas. But the new path, which envisions an immediate truce and a wider political settlement, is regarded as the most serious US-led initiative so far.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to endorse all of its provisions. But he appears closer to accepting the plan as it is a major, comprehensive diplomatic move by Mr Trump.
Ending Israel's war in Gaza has dominated backroom diplomacy at the UN this week, with French President Emmanuel Macron lobbying Mr Trump directly.
Mr Macron was overheard urging him to meet and discuss Gaza as security halted traffic for the US President’s convoy in New York.
Mr Macron also pressed Mr Trump on the political stakes, telling him he needed to end the Gaza war if he wanted to be taken seriously as a contender for the Nobel Peace Prize, after the US President repeated his claim during his General Assembly speech that he had ended seven wars.
Gathering ideas
Speaking at Harvard University’s Belfer Centre, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot revealed on Thursday that the plan had been in the works for months and draws on input from many countries.
“President Trump has asked some of his close advisers to go to the Arab countries, to go to France, to go to the UK, to gather all the ideas that all of us have been putting together for months and years for what a day-after [the Gaza war] plan would look like,” he said.
“This is finally ... being discussed, as we speak in New York, between the Trump administration and Arab countries,” he added, noting that “ideas from France, ideas from the UK” had been incorporated.
Mr Barrot said Arab endorsement was essential. “The day-after plan … requires the Arab countries to sign, to endorse it, to be ready to contribute to it,” he said.
One of the main points in the plan is a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages. For diplomats at the UN and officials who spoke to The National, stopping the war is the first step, followed by work on other provisions.
The second main point is a pledge that Israel will not annex the occupied West Bank and that it will stop building new Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory, sources told The National.
“I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. I will not allow it. Not going to happen,” Mr Trump said in the Oval Office on Thursday, endorsing a major request by Arab countries.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said at the UN: "I feel confident that President Trump understood the position of the Arab and Muslim countries. And I think the president understands very well the risks and dangers of annexation in the West Bank."
Mr Netanyahu is set to meet Mr Trump at the White House on Monday. He has been under growing pressure from extremist right-wing members of his government to annex the West Bank, or at least large parts of it, and give Jewish settlement proponents a free hand to expand.
The plan also provides for the disarmament of Hamas and Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza. Sources say it stipulates that Hamas’s leaders will leave the enclave to live in exile abroad.
Israel, under the plan, is also to allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, where famine is widespread among its estimated two million residents.
Palestinians wounded in the nearly two-year Gaza war will be allowed to leave the devastated territory to receive medical care abroad, along with civilians who wish to depart.
The sources said the plan also provides for the reconstruction of Gaza, mainly with funds from Arab states, and for the territory to be policed by an international force.
The timing
World leaders are pushing hard to stop Israel’s war in Gaza. EU countries have been adopting sanctions against the Israeli government, and there is debate about collective measures if the war continues.
UN investigators have said the war amounts to genocide, pushing many countries, including the UK and France, to recognise Palestinian statehood and revive the two-state solution as the only path forward to lasting peace, despite rejection by Mr Netanyahu.
The US is now the only permanent member of the Security Council that does not recognise Palestine.
Mr Barrot said that a joint initiative with Saudi Arabia had helped to remove major obstacles to Palestinian statehood by shifting global consensus at the UN and securing Arab commitments to future ties with Israel.
He recalled how Paris and Riyadh worked for more than a year on the plan to acknowledge Palestine. “Our idea with Saudi Arabia was basically to do our utmost … to remove all possible obstacles on the path towards the state of Palestine,” he said.
The first breakthrough, he said, came on September 12 with the adoption of a resolution led by France and Saudi Arabia.
“Until two weeks ago, there was no international condemnation of Hamas, no international call for its disarmament, no international goal for its exclusion from any future role in the governance of Gaza and Palestine,” Mr Barrot said. “This is done. We have changed the mindset. Everyone now sees Hamas for what they are, a terrorist organisation.”
The second obstacle, he explained, was Arab reluctance to state publicly a goal of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.
Mr Barrot said the new UN text went further than ever before. “We got them ... to say that they aspire not only to have a normal relationship with Israel, but to enter into a common regional architecture in the model of Asean in Asia or OSCE in Europe,” he said.
Mr Barrot was referring to the Association of South-East Asian Nations and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
All these elements, he said, helped to shape the US-led roadmap, which comes after Israel's army killed more than 65,400 Palestinians in Gaza, including tens of thousands of women and children.
