Everything you need to know about the Arab-American vote in the 2024 US election

Small but important voting bloc has expressed frustration with choice between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, who have both expressed pro-Israel sentiments

A pro-Palestinian demonstrator speaks outside the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan. AFP

Arab-American voters have been thrust into the spotlight this election year, as the Israel-Gaza war continues.

The small but important voting bloc has expressed frustration with the choice between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her challenger, Republican Donald Trump – both of whom have expressed pro-Israel sentiments.

Here, The National details what you need to know about the Arab-American vote this election season:

How many Arab-American voters are there?

There are an estimated 2.5 million Arab-American voters in the US, but it is difficult to know exactly how many, as the US Census has not included a “Middle Eastern and North African” category on its once-a-decade survey of the population.

The next Census in 2030 will feature a Mena option in the race or ethnicity box, which will help to better identify the community in the US population.

The Arab American Institute says many current estimates are a “significant undercount” because the 2020 Census relied more on a write-in response or choices in ancestry categories, and the population has since grown.

Where do most Arab Americans live?

The highest number of Arab Americans live in California, with a population of more than 533,000.

At least 392,000 live in Michigan, and about 300,000 live in New York state.

The rest of the Arab population in the US is mainly on the East Coast, in mid-Atlantic and north-eastern coast states, while many can also be found in Texas and Illinois.

The Arab American Institute says 95 per cent of the population lives in metropolitan areas, with the group making up a significant part of the populations of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit and Washington.

What has the community's response been to the Israel-Gaza war?

The Arab-American community is frustrated with US support for Israel as it continues its war in Gaza.

People in the community have expressed their anger through protests and speaking out to national leaders and the media, while also promising not to support Mr Biden's re-election campaign before he ended his bid.

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The White House has held several meetings with Arab-American leaders since early October. Some have been contentious, while with others, people walked out or rejected invitations.

People in the “Arab capital” of America – Dearborn, Michigan – have told Mr Biden he is not welcome in the city.

Feeling that they are not being listened to amid the conflict, some Palestinian Americans are running for office.

How have Arab Americans voted in the past?

Like any community, Arab Americans are not one bloc, although voters tend to lean to the Democrats.

An October 2020 poll carried out by Zogby Analytics found that 59 per cent of Arab-American voters said they would vote for Mr Biden, compared with 35 per cent for Mr Trump.

While the voting number is relatively small, Arab Americans living in swing states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania could make a difference in the coming election.

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What do Arab Americans think about Harris?

After Ms Harris launched her campaign, the Arab American Anti-Discrimination Committee found that more than 25 per cent of community members supported the Vice President's bid for the Oval Office, an increase from 7 per cent support for Mr Biden.

But Ms Harris lagged behind Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the poll, largely because of her pro-Palestinian stance.

The new Democratic candidate also landed in hot water for snapping at protesters calling for a ceasefire at a campaign rally.

Kamala Harris shuts down pro-Palestine hecklers during campaign rally

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She later changed her tone towards protesters, but remained steadfast on the Biden policy.

A black Muslim group has backed Ms Harris for election, while “uncommitted” voters want to meet with her about her Gaza policy.

Ms Harris reportedly told representatives for pro-Palestine Democratic voters that she would be open to hearing their concerns.

What do Arab Americans think about Trump?

It is unclear how Mr Trump would handle the Israel-Gaza war if it continues into next year, when the next president will be inaugurated.

Like Mr Biden, Mr Trump has expressed strong support for Israel, even moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem during his presidency.

Early in his term in office, Mr Trump introduced a so-called Muslim ban that prevented citizens from 13 Muslim-majority countries from entering the US.

While only a quarter of Arab Americans are Muslim, the ban greatly affected community members with family or connections to countries included in the executive order.

Mr Trump has vowed to bring the ban back if re-elected this November, and has said that he would not welcome refugees from Gaza into the US.

The National published an editorial on how Arab Americans “won't be blackmailed by threats of a Trump presidency” amid the community's protests against Mr Biden's support for Israel.

Recent polls by Zogby Analytics found that support for Mr Trump remains at about 30 per cent in the Arab-American community, with many looking to third-party candidates.

What is the 'uncommitted' movement?

The movement involves people voting “uncommitted” or leaving their ballots blank during the Democratic primaries to express their discontent with Mr Biden's Gaza policies – and the movement goes beyond the Arab-American community.

More than 650,000 Democrats cast votes to demand a policy change on Israel and Gaza during the primary season, according to Politico.

In an increasingly tight election, every vote counts.

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What have Arab-American politicians said about the election?

Abdullah Hammoud, the mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, denounced the Democratic Party's hopes to gain the Arab-American community's support as the crisis in Gaza worsens.

“I will not entertain conversations about elections while we watch a live-streamed genocide backed by our government,” he said after cancelling a meeting with Mr Biden's campaign team before the President ended his re-election bid.

“This is not a moment for electoral politics.”

But Mr Hammoud has met members of the Biden administration, saying these talks are more productive at the moment than campaign discussions.

In Congress, support for Israel is high, even among Arab-American politicians. Republican representatives including Garret Graves and Darrell Issa, both of Lebanese descent, have voted on bills backing Israel.

But Palestinian-American Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat, expressed strong support for the uncommitted movement in Michigan, which she represents.

Ms Tlaib said that uncommitted voters should still show up on election day in November, and warned Democrats about the possibility of losing the Arab-American community's vote.

“I am incredibly, incredibly scared of a second term for Trump,” she said.

“Our democracy is at stake and I'm asking the President – and I think many of us are saying – change course, because you're threatening literally our democracy. Please.”

Ms Tlaib also criticised the current administration and her congressional colleagues for negative comments about pro-ceasefire protesters.

“We're not going to forget in November, are we?”