How will Dubai's transport system cope with growing population?

Reducing reliance on cars crucial to emirate's future, experts tell The National

The Dubai Metro is being expanded to cater for the increasing population. Chris Whiteoak / The National

Dubai’s population has passed the four million mark – but with the roads often congested, how are authorities going to move all these people around?

Authorities are expanding the Metro through the Blue Line megaproject and upgrading the bus network, with the Etihad Rail project well under way. Taxis are popular, and bikes and e-scooters are common but the roads remain busy, with cars still the go-to option for many.

Experts have told The National that more high-density development, public transport connectivity, subsidised bus passes and, crucially, a shift in culture and mindset could help make the emirate less car-centric and ensure there are solid transport options for everyone.

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It is particularly important as Dubai's population is on course to keep growing, with predictions suggesting it will be home to 5.8 million by 2040.

What needs to change?

Monica Menendez, professor of civil and urban engineering at New York University Abu Dhabi, said population growth is a challenge faced by many cities across the world and the solution is not building more roads but offering more options such as the Metro, ride-sharing and “micro-mobility” lightweight systems such as e-scooters.

But for people to use these, they must be competitive and “match or exceed the convenience, speed and comfort of private cars”.

“This kind of shift doesn’t happen overnight – it requires a cultural change,” she said. “But we’ve seen it succeed elsewhere. Many European and Asian cities have already made public transport the preferred choice for most residents.”

Prof Menendez cautioned, however, that there was no one-size-fits-all solution and it could encompass high-frequency service, dense networks, integrated payment systems, real-time information, safe, clean and comfortable vehicles, convenient transfer services and reliable operations.

“While this might seem ambitious, advances in information and technology over recent decades have made it increasingly achievable," she added.

Can 20-minute city help?

Planners in Dubai are also exploring the concept of the 20-minute city – which means most daily needs are within that timeframe without using a car.

But experts have cautioned that the emirate's sprawling residential developments and hot summer weather remain challenging.

“Investment is needed to mitigate this problem, such as shaded walkways and public spaces, otherwise proximity doesn’t translate into usability,” noted Paulo Anciaes, principal researcher in transport and health at University College London.

“Singapore, for example, has promoted walking by building air-conditioned walkways and sheltered bus stops to address the problem of hot weather.”

Mr Anciaes said short bus trips could be important to develop the 20-minute city but a deeply embedded car culture and a bus network that does not cover all areas mean “behavioural nudges” are needed to increase ridership, such as introducing subsidised bus passes.

He referred to Phoenix in the US state of Arizona, where car dependency and the hot climate are issues.

"Besides improvements in bus stops, there were also improvements in the digital infrastructure, with app-based real-time information that reduces the unreliability of taking a bus," he said of Phoenix's progress. "Also, some employers subsidise bus passes.”

Prof Menendez also endorsed the importance of mixed use developments to allow people to stay in the same area. “When people can live, work and shop within the same area, it becomes much easier to walk, bike, or take public transport instead of driving,” she said.

“This kind of urban design supports a more sustainable, liveable and connected city.”

The Emaar Properties Station is to be built in Dubai Creek Harbour as part of the Dubai Metro Blue Line extension. Photo: Dubai Media Office

Dubai boosts public transport

Authorities in Dubai are improving public transport. The Dubai Metro Blue Line project is set to start operations in 2029 and will cover the expanding areas of Mirdif and Dubai Creek Harbour, with an underground interconnector station at International City to serve the Dragon Mart complex.

An Etihad Rail station is also expected around Jumeirah Golf Estates. The rail operator has said stations will be linked in some capacity to existing modes of public transport. A high-speed railway between Abu Dhabi and Dubai is also in the pipeline.

Authorities are upgrading the bus network and working on making Dubai a more liveable city by adding cycle paths and shaded areas. For example, a plan to transform the emirate into a “year-round pedestrian-friendly city”, with more than 3,000km of new paths and 110 new bridges and tunnels, was announced in December.

UAE-based transport expert Martin Tillman said each new resident adds demand for travel and no single mode of transport mode can provide the solution alone.

“The next part is the full integration across all modes including demand responsive services [that can be booked often without a fixed route or schedule], park and ride, and first and last-mile options that connect dense urban areas, new suburbs and key destinations like Dubai South and Expo City,” said Mr Tillman, founder of TMP Consult.

Thomas Edelmann, founder of Road Safety UAE. Sarah Dea / The National

Ensuring road safety

Huge investment in public transport aside, the roads remain busy. Cities such as Singapore have introduced tolls to encourage more people to try public transport. Dubai introduced its Salik toll gate system in 2007 and charges increased this year.

As a 25-year Dubai veteran, road safety campaigner Thomas Edelmann said it was “amazing to see the constant growth of our city”.

“Reaching a population number of four million is a great achievement for the city but it comes with some concerns for its residents,” said Mr Edelmann, founder and managing director of Road Safety UAE. "One such concern is what's happening on our roads."

He highlighted a study commissioned this year by Road Safety UAE and Al Wathba Insurance that found 91 per cent of Dubai residents experience traffic congestion daily and almost half of the respondents (49 per cent) feel frustrated, annoyed, very stressed or anxious as a result.

He said the top four responses in the survey on how to cut congestion were to promote working from home, improve public rail offerings (Metro, train), expand the road network and improving the public bus service.

“The dependency on road transportation is extremely high,” Mr Edelmann said. “We need to find ways to reduce this dependency and, as a consequence, reduce the number of vehicles on the roads.”