One year after Dubai floods: How climate change is reshaping the weather and urban landscape

Emirate is preparing for any repeat of the worst storm in 75 years as scientists warn of intensifying extreme weather

Flooding on Al Khail Road, Dubai, on April 16, 2024. Chris Whiteoak / The National

One year ago today, Dubai was brought to a standstill. Cars floated along submerged roads. Malls and schools closed. Flights were grounded. In just 12 hours, 100mm of rain fell – the amount the city typically receives in a year and the heaviest rainfall since records began in 1949.

On the first anniversary of the deluge, the question is not whether if it will happen again, but when and how often. Dubai Municipality has responded by announcing this week that it has awarded Dh1.4 billion in stormwater drainage contracts.

The contracts fall under the Dh30 billion Tasreef project, Dubai’s largest unified stormwater collection system. The projects will serve key areas across the emirate: Nad Al Hamar, the area around Dubai International Airport, Al Garhoud, Al Rashidiya, Al Quoz, Zabeel, Al Wasl, Jumeirah and Al Badaa.

They aim to enhance the capacity of the drainage system and increase its discharge capacity by 700 per cent over the next 100 years. The scheme was introduced in the months following the storm and is scheduled to be completed by 2033.

Such initiatives aim to change the impact of climate change on the region, with more frequent storms forecast.

“The combination of rising global temperatures and regional climatic shifts suggests that the UAE, including Dubai, may experience similar severe rainfall events more frequently in the future,” Dr Adam Fenech, provost at Canadian University Dubai, told The National. “This underscores the importance of urban infrastructure and emergency preparedness in mitigating the impacts of such events.”

Climate change drives extreme weather

Climate experts say last year's flooding is a clear sign that weather systems across the Gulf are shifting. According to Dr Fenech, Dubai's average annual rainfall has increased by 40 per cent in recent decades, while the wider GCC region has seen a 20 per cent rise over the past 20 years.

“This increase aligns with projections that a warmer atmosphere due to climate change can hold more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall events,” said Dr Fenech, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

He warned that short, intense downpours like those experienced in April 2024 are now more likely, particularly during El Nino years, the name given to when warmer waters in the Pacific shift global rainfall patterns. Scientific analysis suggests that downpours during these years have become 10 to 40 per cent heavier in the region due to climate change.

Footage of the flooding in Dubai last year taken by Nasa. Photo: Nasa Earth Observatory

Anatomy of a flood

Experts attribute the 2024 flood to a convergence of weather systems. Abdulla Al Mandous, director general of the UAE's National Centre of Meteorology, says last year's storm was triggered by a warm, moisture-laden air mass from the south colliding with a cold upper atmosphere.

“The resulting differential temperatures and humidity levels facilitated cloud formation, particularly the development of cumulonimbus clouds, which are capable of producing intense rainfall due to their vertical development and latent heat release,” Dr Al Mandous told The National.

But the deeper issue lies in a climate system that is no longer behaving predictably. Dubai's new stormwater drainage project is designed to address that problem by channelling water more efficiently away from urban centres to prevent surface flooding and reduce the risk of economic disruption. But experts say that infrastructure alone will not be enough.

The Tasreef project will cost Dh30 billion ($8.16 billion) and is set to be completed by 2033. Dubai Media Office/X

Technology meets urgency

Artificial intelligence is being touted as a key part of the city's adaptation strategy. Naji Atallah, Europe, Middle East and Africa head of construction and manufacturing at Autodesk, says AI can simulate flood events, test urban planning scenarios and process huge collections of data to enable faster, more effective decisions.

“The value of AI lies in its ability to process vast data sets quickly – from rainfall intensity to land use patterns – helping city planners and engineers develop solutions that are both resilient and resource-efficient,” he said. “As this region continues to urbanise at pace, investing in such smarter infrastructure will be key to mitigating environmental risk while meeting future demand.”

“Dubai’s investment in a citywide stormwater network reflects a growing recognition that water resilience is critical to future-proofing our cities,” said Michael Nielsen, regional director at Danish pump manufacturer Grundfos. “As we witness more frequent and intense weather events across the region, it’s no longer enough to rely on conventional infrastructure. Urban water systems must be reimagined to adapt to a more unpredictable climate.”

Graphs show G42's end-to-end fog simulation over the UAE. G42

AI's role in extreme weather preparation

An Abu Dhabi company has created a forecasting system that could change how authorities and businesses prepare for extreme weather.

The National Centre of Meteorology told The National that it forecasts about seven days in advance, but the new system from G42 with global chip maker Nvidia is said to increase that capability to 14 days.

Antonios Vouloudis, senior director of sustainability and stewardship at NYU Abu Dhabi, told The National that this would provide “ample time for authorities and businesses to implement necessary measures”.

Andrew Jackson, chief executive officer of Inception, a G42 company, explained that the technology used in the program, CorrDiff, is designed to adapt to local weather behaviours. "This technology is not only improving forecasting for the UAE but can also be tailored for regions worldwide facing climate volatility. The ability to generate hyper-local predictions gives decision-makers the confidence to act faster, plan better, and build more resilient systems." said Mr Jackson.

Dr Al Mandous said: “AI-powered weather forecasting has the potential to revolutionise high-quality, high-resolution weather and disaster management solutions, particularly in this accelerating phase of climate change.

“By enhancing prediction accuracy and enabling hyper-local, real-time forecasts, this technology empowers better decision-making and strengthens resilience against climate challenges.”

Mr Vouloudis added that such technology “can enable cities to make informed decisions for smarter urban planning to manage heavy rain, heatwaves and other climate risks”.

Such tools could also be used to warn commuters about flooding on their routes, help parents to plan outdoor activities for their children and enable businesses to minimise disruptions.

Beyond the UAE, G42 is also exploring the expansion of its technology in climate-vulnerable regions such as Africa, South Asia and South-East Asia.