Syrians in the Gulf hoping to return to Damascus may have to wait weeks before international flights to the capital's airport resume after the Assad government was overthrown, experts said.
The capital was claimed by rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham on Sunday, after deposing Bashar Al Assad and his family’s 50-year rule.
As a nation impacted by more than a decade of war attempts to rebuild, a diaspora spread far and wide is eager to return home.
Director of Fly Trust Travel
Analysts said it could be some time before Gulf carriers resume services to the capital city, Damascus, despite demand for flights.
Due to a high risk to civilian aircraft during the conflict that began in 2011, Syrian airspace was closed off by international carriers.
Syrians hoping for a swift return home from Lebanon and Jordan face a short drive of a few hours, but those living further away are unlikely to be able to fly directly into Damascus for some time.
“When Damascus Airport was closed to Gulf carriers, Emirates was the first to withdraw flights which was purely done for safety reasons,” said Mark Martin, chief executive of Martin Consulting, an aviation advisory and risk firm that works with airports, regulators and airlines.
“Nobody wants to fly into a conflict area, as the insurance liabilities from flying over a war risk area doubles.
“When you restart any airport, the airport and the region has to be re-validated and certified by the International Civil Aviation Organisation as Syria is a signatory nation.
“The Assad government has been toppled and rebels have taken over, but it will take some time for these groups to form a government.
“Whether that's a democracy or a militia, there will be certain steps to take.
“Once that is established and somebody smart and articulate enough is in place to run the civil aviation department in Syria, it's possible airlines can start resuming flights.”
Assessing flight risk
According to the Conflict Zone & Risk Database, an independent airspace monitor for airlines, commercial airlines avoided Syria entirely due to the risk of aircraft being targeted in error or caught in the crossfire during air attacks involving Israel, Russia and Iran.
In October last year, Damascus International Airport and Aleppo Airports were targeted by air strikes and temporarily closed due to runway damage.
In February 2020, the CZRD reported an A320 aircraft en route to Damascus was caught in crossfire during an attack by four Israeli F16 fighter jets, and was forced to divert to a Russian-controlled airbase.
Gulf carriers contacted by The National said they would follow the lead of regulators, such as the UAE's General Civil Aviation Authority before any decision would be made on resuming routes into Syria.
Multiple unknowns remain in Syrian capability to receive international aircraft. Questions surrounding the state of airport infrastructure, availability of weather tracking and air-traffic control and quality of refuelling operations would all need to be answered first, experts said.
“So far, the operations of Syrian Air have been extremely restricted,” said Mr Martin.
“Everybody would want to reopen flights into Damascus, which obviously is a significant destination for the Gulf.
“Airlines will have to individually go and do a damage assessment, a liability assessment and a review of what's happened, what's workable, what's permissible, as well as what's functioning and what is not.
“Syrians want an opportunity to go back and connect with what's left of their homes, what's left of their families
“That’s going to be the upside as the global diaspora returns. Everybody is excited and enthusiastic about starting flights back to Damascus but it's going to take some time.”
Road routes
Cham Wings, a private Syrian airline and Syrian Air, the country's national airline, were two carriers that continued to operate before the airport was closed on Sunday.
Travel agents said many looking to return home were likely to be restricted from reaching Syria by road.
“As of now Damascus Airport is closed until December 18, which may get extended depending on the country's decision and situation,” said Mustafa Danbalab, director of Fly Trust Travel.
“If someone needs to travel in an emergency, the only option is to fly to Beirut or Amman and then travel by road as the borders are open now.
“People prefer to travel to Beirut as the Syrian borders are much closer from there.”
