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Two thousand kilometres from the economic war of endurance in the Strait of Hormuz, the US is seeking to deal a strategic blow to Iran by initiating peace talks between Lebanon and Israel that could undermine Hezbollah.
However, the absence of an overarching American approach to constrain Israel, in the occupied Palestinian territories and elsewhere, could detract from this effort, together with wariness by some of Washington's Arab allies of a growing Israeli reach in the Middle East, observers said.
Talks began in Washington on Tuesday, the first time since an abrogated 1983 peace treaty that meetings between the Middle East neighbours were convened without Tehran's approval.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the initial goal as seeking a “framework” under which “peace can be developed”. The process, he said, attempts to put “a permanent end” to the regional influence of Hezbollah, one of Iran's most powerful and richest proxies.
Arab heavyweights have always kept an eye on Lebanon, which was a main destination for Arab cash deposits and property investments, and remains the most open society in the region.
Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent Egypt, were behind the 1989 Taif agreement that ended the 15-year Lebanese Civil War in 1990 and became a standard of Middle East diplomacy. The agreement stipulated the disarmament of all militias. However, Hezbollah, which enjoyed Syrian and Iranian protection, never ditched its weapons. It was the only militia from the civil war period that continued to exist publicly as an armed group.
Arab states did not seek to build up armed proxies in Lebanon, relying instead on their connections to a government that became increasingly weakened.
Through Hezbollah, Shiite Iran sought, and managed, in the past two decades, to make Beirut a forward base for its ideology and military technology in the majority Sunni Middle East. However, the expansion of Israel since the Gaza war into Palestinian territories, south Lebanon and Syria, has rekindled Arab interest in the country.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has been conducting intense telephone diplomacy on Lebanon, including with US emissaries, such as Massad Boulos, a Middle East adviser to President Donald Trump, and with France.
“He emphasised the security and integrity of Lebanese territory and the empowerment of state institutions, especially the army, as well as implementing the ceasefire and halting Israeli attacks while giving negotiations a chance,” the Egyptian Foreign Ministry quoted Mr Abdelatty as telling Mr Rubio during talks in Washington on Tuesday.
Iran's shadow
Lebanon's usefulness for Tehran became more critical after Iran was forced in 2024 to withdraw from Syria, following an aerial war with Israel and a ground war between Israel and Hezbollah, which contributed significantly to the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus.
Only a day after the latest Iran war began on February 28, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, which responded with a persisting aerial and ground campaign in which an estimated 2,000 people in Lebanon have been killed. Israel has been destroying Lebanese villages and towns near the border to set up a buffer zone, similar to actions it took in Gaza.
“Hezbollah has committed another ideological blunder by starting the war,” said a European diplomat, adding that the American approach “needs a larger framing”.
Hezbollah’s intervention in the 2011 to 2024 Syrian Civil War undermined its self-declared image as a national resistance movement, and its entry into the 2023 Gaza war wiped out most of its veteran leadership and angered many Lebanese as the country came under intense Israeli bombing.
Hundreds of thousands of people, mostly Shiite, have fled their homes, mainly from the south to the crowded capital, Beirut.
Even if a version of the Abraham Accords is drawn for Lebanon, Israel's expansion at the expense of the Palestinians “creates a clientele for Iran’s resistance narrative”, the diplomat said.
“The Gazafication of south Lebanon does not help either,” he said, expecting eventual resistance to Israel's occupation of south Lebanon. Although Iran has verbally opposed the talks, it “does not mind them”, because any agreement will result in a ceasefire, while any deal on disarming of Hezbollah will be a slow process.
Both Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who founded Iran's rule of the jurist, and his successor, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made anti-Israelism and restoring Jerusalem to Muslim control a tenet of state ideology and of Hezbollah. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps played a major role in founding the group in 1982.
“The talks actually throw up more balls in the air, which suits Tehran,” the diplomat said.
The US had refused demands by Tehran to include Lebanon in the ceasefire that stopped the Iran war on March 8. Fearing Lebanon could sign on to a deal that stipulates the disarmament of Hezbollah, Iran has branded the talks futile.
Hezbollah said it will not abide by the outcome. However, the Lebanese state, which usually blinks when confronted by Hezbollah, went ahead with the talks, on the expectation of a quick ceasefire and after US pressure on Israel diminished the bombardment of Beirut.
A regional source in contact with Lebanese officials said Iran wants to see a swift ceasefire because the war has been chipping away at its support among Lebanon's Shiites, many of whom view Tehran as “the one who started the war and the one who should end it”.
“It will still leave Lebanon with a population displacement problem. Many people are looking at what happened to them as an act of sabotage to their life by Iran,” the source said. However, if the weak government tried to disarm Hezbollah by force, it “will lead to civil war”. Any successful disarmament would have to be part of a US-Iran deal, the source added.
From 2004 to 2006, three UN Security Council resolutions stipulated that all militias in Lebanon must disarm. These resolutions were passed after the assassination of statesman and former prime minister Rafic Al Hariri and a 34-day war between Hezbollah and Israel.
Hariri, a former businessman who was opposed to Hezbollah, saw Lebanon’s prosperity as tied to the Arab Gulf and its historic openness towards the West.
However, France and other European countries, which have been critical of Israel for the way it has been conducting the current war, said in a joint statement on Wednesday that the US-sponsored talks “can pave the way to bring lasting security for Lebanon and Israel as well as the region”. In the Middle East, distrust of Iran has increased but most of the main players still oppose the Israeli approach.
Underlining the strategic importance that Cairo attaches to Lebanon, Mr Abdelatty has visited Beirut three times in the past year, while Hassan Rashad, director of Egypt's powerful intelligence agency, has been known to visit twice.
Strategic and political analyst Samir Ragheb told The National Egypt views the East Mediterranean as an area of vital economic interests, with overlapping natural gasfields, including some between Lebanon and Israel. That means instability in Lebanon could affect Cairo's interests.
“We are talking about mass displacement that could impact Egypt”, Mr Ragheb said. Authorities say Egypt is already home to millions of refugees from across the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
“Egypt is assuming a neutral although effective posture on Lebanon,” said Mr Ragheb, a retired Egyptian army brigadier. “It's trying to put out fires and find a way to influence the stakeholders.”
He predicted the question of disarming Hezbollah would remain at the forefront in Lebanon. If the Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington fail, pressure will persist on the government to use force to disarm Hezbollah. “Lebanon, regardless of how much support it receives, will not be able to deal with these variables,” he said.
The challenge facing Egypt's interests in Lebanon, he continued, is compounded by the potential threat to the Suez Canal from Yemen's Houthis, the possibility of mass population movement from Gaza to Egypt and the Sudan war.
“These multiple pressure points will have cumulative effects that Egypt cannot control,” said Mr Ragheb.
