The US-Israel war with Iran is locked in a “recipe for deadlock”, with no political exit ramp yet for either side, although a decisive outcome could emerge within three to five weeks, political commentator Nadim Koteich has said.
The conflict will end when "Iran finds a formula by which it can stop the war without calling it a defeat, or the US finds a formula to stop the war without calling it a failure", Mr Koteich told The National in an interview on Friday.
"So far we have a military strategy on the American side, but we don't have a political exit ramp. On the Iranian side, we have a very clear survival, resilience instinct, but they don't have so much leverage to put on the table.
This is a recipe for deadlock so far. I think we are three to five weeks away from a decisive outcome of this war... The regime can claim it survived and [US President Donald] Trump can claim that this war achieved its objectives," he added.
Mr Koteich said Iran has already suffered heavy military losses.
"Iran started this war 13 days ago as one of the most important and strong missile forces in the region. In 13 days, it lost 90 to 95 per cent of its capabilities."
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed in an address on Friday to destroy Tehran’s present and future military capabilities. He said its conventional weapons, arsenals and production were being wiped out.
Mr Hegseth said the country's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has been “likely disfigured”, casting doubt on his first purported message released on Thursday.
Mr Khamenei has not been seen in public since he was chosen to succeed his assassinated father on Monday.
Amid growing speculation on his whereabouts, state media read out a "first message" from Mr Khamenei on Thursday, hinting at an escalation of the war. But his face was not seen and his voice not heard, leaving questions open about his health.
Regime change
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have hinted that the ultimate objective of the war is regime change. However, that outcome still appears unlikely.
Analysts say Iran’s selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader sends a clear message to Washington and Israel: external pressure, including leadership decapitation, will harden rather than reshape the Islamic Republic’s leadership.
"The regime is trying to show some sort of relevance, resilience and continuity," said Mr Koteich. "Would that be the case three weeks down the road? We don't know. I don't think it'll be the case."
"The regime has changed. The regime that we are witnessing now is totally different from the regime that started the war," he added. "The regime transformed from theology with a military arm into a military dictatorship with a turban, which is Mojtaba Khamenei."
Gulf restraint
Since erupting on February 28 with the US-Israeli assault on Iran, the war has reverberated throughout the region. The fighting has killed thousands, disrupted the lives of millions, rattled global financial markets and sparked an oil crisis.
In retaliation, Iran has launched drone and missile attacks targeting US bases, energy infrastructure, civilian facilities and diplomatic sites across the Gulf. On Friday, strikes rocked several Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman, as Iran unleashed a new wave of attacks.
Despite the escalation, Gulf states have so far exercised restraint.
"Restraint is a strategy in and of itself when it comes to the GCC countries, mainly the UAE and Saudi Arabia," said Mr Koteich.
"These two countries invested so much time, so much fortune, so much capital in defining themselves as neutral hubs in the Middle East. They define themselves as the necessary table for the postwar moment. I don't think they will enter the war ... what they are trying to do is maintain the moral high ground to maintain their status as victims of the vicious unprovoked Iranian aggression," he added.
