Iranian officials say they are not seeking a ceasefire. The US says the conflict will end when it has achieved its military objectives, but insists it does not want an endless war.
For normal Iranians, the two weeks-old conflict already seems to have no clear end game. As strikes continue to hit city centres and the civilian death toll rises, the weight of war is exhausting them.
“People’s depression has got much worse,” Sina, a resident of Tehran, told The National. "There was a hope for change, so that people’s living conditions would improve, but there’s a feeling they’ve worsened a lot. If things carry on like this and nothing changes, it’s likely there will be a wave of emigration from Iran.” Iranians interviewed for this story spoke using pseudonyms for security reasons.
In the wake of a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests in January that left at least 7,000 people dead, many Iranians called for foreign intervention to overthrow the Islamic Republic. But some who initially supported that idea are starting to change their minds.
“Some people who initially supported Trump's attack are now regretting it,” Sina said. “Trump thought the people would continue to back him, but in these circumstances, the need for security outweighs the need for freedom.”
a resident of Tehran
The UN says 3.2 million of Iran’s 92 million people have already been displaced within the country’s borders since the start of the war. Tens of thousands have left the capital Tehran, which has seen some of the heaviest bombing, according to data mapping by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a US monitoring group.
Among those who have left Tehran is Ali, who opposed the war from the start.
“Unfortunately I don't think America itself has a very clear answer as to what will happen after this war,” he told The National in a voice note.
City dwellers are so far not reporting shortages of water, food or electricity. But they are traumatised by the intensity of the bombings, which have frequently hit residential areas where military and security installations are located among civilian homes and businesses.
“The problem is that the attacks could take place anywhere, and civilians are being killed. The blast sounds are so loud, and most people cannot sleep at night. They are terrified,” Arezoo, a woman in Tehran, told The National. “The longer the war goes on, the more scared people become.”
Recent strikes on oil depots around Tehran and threats by US President Donal Trump to target electricity networks have raised scepticism among Iranians about the war’s goals and doubts if their lives will ever improve.
“If the war ends in a while, both sides will declare victory, and the main losers will be the people of Iran,” said Sina.
Civilian toll grows
Iranian officials say more than 1,300 civilians have been killed in the war. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana) puts the overall death toll at 1,825, including 1,276 civilians, 197 members of the military, and 352 people whose status could not be classified. Both Washington and Israel say they do not deliberately target civilians.
Among the dead are children and the elderly, according to Iranian officials and human rights groups based outside the country. An continuing US military investigation has found that the US was responsible for a Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school in Minab that killed at least 168 people, US media reported.
They are not the only civilian casualties. A four-year-old child, Karen Bazargan, was killed alongside his father and pregnant mother during US-Israeli air strikes on Marivan in western Iran on March 2, human rights group Hengaw reported.
The family’s home was located behind a garrison used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s most powerful military force whose bases are a target of Israeli and US attacks. Karen and his parents, Mitra and Farzad, were killed inside their home when the military facility was targeted, Hengaw reported, citing a source. The France-based Kurdistan Human Rights Network also confirmed their deaths.
The Iranian Red Crescent Society published footage from the aftermath of a US or Israeli air strike on Resalat Square in eastern Tehran on Monday. In the footage, a rescue worker says emergency teams were able to retrieve survivors from the fifth floor. A local official and Hrana said “a number of civilians” were killed in the strikes, without giving a specific death toll.
The Israeli military said it was unable to provide any detail without specific co-ordinates of strikes.
US Central Command said it had no details to share and directed The National to its social media accounts for updates.
Dwindling hopes for change
Some Iranians are still hopeful that the war will lead to the collapse of Iran’s clerical establishment, which has run the country since a revolution toppled the former monarchy in 1979.
“One group of people think that when the war ends, good things will happen,” said Arezoo. “They think Pahlavi will take power, sanctions will be lifted, and our relations with the world will be good, that we will build a country.” She was referring to Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former shah. He has presented himself as a future leader of the country, but lacks broad support from Iranians inside and outside the country.
Many others fear a situation in which infrastructure and the economy – already in tatters before the war – are further destroyed, but in which the Islamic Republic remains intact and could become even more oppressive.
“The other group of people think that many cities have been destroyed, many people have died, and another man has become supreme leader who is not much different from his father,” said Arezoo, referring to the election of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader.
“Those people think that nothing good will happen when this war ends, and that there are the risks of civil war and disintegration. Even if these two things don’t happen, the country will become more like a dictatorship. The economy will get worse and the destroyed infrastructure will not be repaired.”
“I am in the second group.”
With the IRGC's backing, Mojtaba will bring with him a continuation of his father’s hardline policies and has little appetite for reform, analysts widely believe. Some also sense that the war has made hardliners in Iran more determined, including in their long-stated goals of eradicating all US military forces from the Middle East.
The US strikes, especially the killing of Ali Khamenei, and the fact that they started during a diplomatic push for a nuclear deal, are a “strategic mistake”, Ali believes. The war has made Iran act more radically, pushing part of the population to want to continue the conflict.
“When their leader is assassinated, naturally, society becomes more radical, the political forces become more radical,” he added. “This makes everything worse. In my opinion, military intervention doesn’t solve anything.”
Why aren’t Iranians protesting?
US President Donald Trump called on Iranians to “take over your government” once the military campaign is over. Yet the US’ stated aims of destroying Iran’s navy, ballistic missiles stockpiles and nuclear ambitions have not created the conditions that would enable a popular uprising possibly leading to regime change. Nor have they to date created sufficient cracks in the regime that could cause collapse from within, or even incremental change.
Despite heavy air strikes, authorities have been encouraging large pro-government rallies, in what they describe as “gatherings of allegiance”.
On Friday, senior officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, and head of the national Security Council Ali Larijani took place in public street marches for Quds Day, an annual pro-Palestinian event held during the month of Ramadan.
Meanwhile, paramilitary forces known as Basij, long active in violently suppressing protests, have deployed to the streets to prevent anti-government unrest and conduct searches on phones and cars at checkpoints, multiple Iranians have told The National in recent days. In short, rather than creating space for popular revolt, the war has so far done the very opposite.
Security chiefs are directly threatening anyone who thinks about dissenting, acting as a deterrent to anti-government dissent.
“From now on, if someone acts at the enemy’s behest, we will no longer consider them protesters or anything of the sort,” Iran’s police chief Ahmadreza Radan said in an interview broadcast on state television. “We will regard them as the enemy and we will treat them as we treat the enemy.” Security teams, “have their fingers on the trigger” and “all streets, alleys, neighbourhoods and squares” are under the control of the security forces, he said.
At least 195 people have been arrested across Iran during the course of the war, Hrana reported this week. The people face accusations including "activity on social media", co-operating with foreign media, "espionage" and attempting to disrupt public security, the organisation said.
Iranian authorities have also imposed widespread internet blackouts, leaving many people unable to communicate with loved ones outside the country. News sources other than state television, which mostly broadcasts programmes about Iran’s attacks on Israel and across the Gulf, are largely out of reach. Some people have paid large amounts of money to get online via shared Starlink connections, which use a satellite dish to allow internet access.
“Don’t you feel shameful for cutting off the internet on us when we’re war-torn, desperate, and utterly wretched?” one Iranian wrote on X, in an apparent address to the country’s authorities.
Many fear that the war will not result in a concrete improvement to their lives, and once the guns fall silent, the same Islamic Republic will rebuild its resources, setting the stage for more conflict with Israel and the US in the future.
“Certainly, regarding all those missiles that have been destroyed [in the war], and the people’s money that has been spent on them, money will be taken from people’s pockets in the future to build them up again,” Sina said.
