In the small cafes along Maka Al Mukarrama Road in restless Mogadishu, politics is as much a part of daily life as sweet Shaah tea and football debates.
Lately, one question keeps resurfacing: what happens now that Israel has recognised Somaliland, a breakaway region that has existed in diplomatic limbo for more than three decades?
For many experts in the region, the timing feels like a risky move that could drag the Horn of Africa deeper into Middle Eastern struggles.
For Somalia itself, a strategically located country of 18 million people with unstable borders and unfinished wars, the bigger anxiety is precedent now that a taboo has been broken. If Israel’s move is not contained, it risks reopening a question that Mogadishu has spent three decades trying to keep closed: the permanence of the Somali state.
This would weaken Mogadishu’s negotiating position in future crises. It would also embolden other regions inside the country. Puntland, Jubaland, and even local administrations could begin to ask what Somaliland gained and why they should not pursue similar paths.
From Mogadishu’s perspective, this is why Israel’s move does not just affect Somaliland. It touches the core question of whether Somalia could slowly dissolve into zones of influence shaped by external rivalries.
Regional security analyst Samira Geid says Israel is seeking strategic depth along the Gulf of Aden, where Yemeni Houthi rebels have repeatedly attacked Israeli-linked shipping in a highly costly power play shaped by the war in Gaza.
“Israel’s timing can be best understood through a strategic lens,” she told The National. “Over the past decade, the Red Sea and the Bab El Mandeb strait have become increasingly securitised. In this context, Israel is seeking greater strategic depth along a critical maritime corridor. Somaliland presents a relatively stable coastline opposite Yemen.”
Coastline and security
From this perspective, recognition looks more about positioning than anything else. Even without a formal military presence, closer ties could offer intelligence co-operation, maritime monitoring, and leverage at a time when Israel senses real opportunities to curb Iran’s pressure points.
Others see domestic Israeli politics at play. Mogadishu-based analyst Farah Abdi suggests the move serves a symbolic purpose at home, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces corruption charges, faces mounting international criticism over Gaza, and is deep in political polarisation.
“Whether symbolic or strategic, Israel’s recognition alone is unlikely to shift Somaliland’s international status without broader support,” Mr Abdi said.
Inside Somaliland, reactions reveal just how complicated that gesture is. In Hargeisa, the capital in the centre of the territory of five million, there were celebrations, with many viewing the decision as long-overdue validation. In Awdal, the western region bordering Djibouti, however, protests erupted, driven by fears of being dragged into Israel’s conflicts.
Supporters say Somaliland has little to lose and much to gain. After decades of isolation, any form of recognition is seen as a crack in the wall.
Political analyst Guleid Ahmed Jama argues that beyond geopolitics, the psychological impact matters. “For ordinary Somalilanders, recognition validates more than three decades of resilience and sacrifice,” he said. “It offers a profound psychological and moral boost.”
He hopes it could eventually unlock investment in agriculture, technology and infrastructure, easing unemployment and slowing youth migration.
Yet Somalia, which considers Somaliland an integral part of its territory, may respond forcefully diplomatically. It could push to further isolate Somaliland economically, restrict access to airspace, trade routes or regional platforms, or lobby allies to reaffirm Somalia’s territorial integrity.
What comes next is as unpredictable as the sudden turns of the tuk-tuks that weave through the capital’s streets. But one thing is certain: if Somaliland’s recognition becomes part of a broader security architecture involving Israel, regional and Western powers, Somalia may find itself sidelined in decisions that directly affect its own coastline and security.
