Talks are taking place between Iraq's major parties to form a new government and elect a new prime minister, a position the incumbent Mohammed Shia Al Sudani is seeking to renew, but for which experts and officials say his chances are "slim".
Despite Mr Al Sudani’s electoral bloc, the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, coming first in the elections, winning 46 parliamentary seats out of 329, it failed to obtain the decision-making majority. Iraq’s electoral system is designed to prevent the monopolisation of a single ruling party. But this often means a long road ahead to form a government.
Mr Al Sudani “has never been likely to get a second term because he has both too few seats and too many at the same time,” Michael Knights, an Iraq scholar at the Washington Institute, told The National.
“He has too few because it takes at least 60 to 70 seats to be able to demand the premiership as a solo effort, and too many because the other Shia [Shiite] parties want to share a controllable prime minister who has no seats or almost no seats,” Mr Knights said.
The ruling Co-ordination Framework coalition, which includes most of the Shiite blocs, had clear winners, the main one being former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law bloc, which landed 29 seats. The Sadiqoun Bloc led by Qais Al Khazali, a militia leader designated a global terrorist by the US, made significant gains in the vote, won 27 seats.
Rugged road
Most Iraqi political parties, especially the Shiites, have developed a firm conviction that allowing any prime minister to serve more than one term upsets the political balance.
The experience of Mr Al Maliki's second term revealed the possibility of the premiership turning into an independent power centre capable of building a deep political and security network that could override the will of political blocs and threaten their interests – even the political system itself.
But there is also the belief a prime minister seeking a second term has often accumulated experience and networks of influence within state institutions, making him more independent and less susceptible to pressure.
This could create the prospect of forming a deep state that extends into the security, economic and foreign affairs sectors, turning executive power into a closed system.
"So far, Al Sudani doesn't enjoy the same broad support within the Co-ordination Framework when he was nominated to that position in 2022," a Shiite politician told The National. "There is still a rugged road ahead for him."
The alliance is discussing several candidates for the position of prime minister, he added. Said to be among those on the shortlist are head of the Federal Commission of Integrity, Bassem Al Badri, Basra governor Asaad Al Eidani and Intelligence Service chief Hamid Al Shatri.
Mr Al Sudani announced he was once again joining the Co-ordination Framework coalition. That gives the bloc an outright majority of nearly 175 seats and the opportunity to select a prime minister.
“The Framework is clear that it wants somebody who does not have a party, who does not have bigger political ambitions in terms of running for the next elections, somebody they feel they'll be able to control better," said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq expert at the Century Foundation think tank. “That sort of criteria means that Mr Al Sudani is expected to be excluded."
Mr Al Sudani has "very slim chances" of securing a second term, he added: "He didn't overachieve in the elections, he didn't pick up 70 or 100 seats."
Throughout his election campaign, Mr Al Sudani’s bid for office was built on his government’s success in improving services, maintaining balanced relations between Tehran and Washington, and steering Iraq clear of regional conflict following Israel's war on the Gaza Strip.
"We cannot deny some of Al Sudani's successes in certain areas, but there are also failures," a Shiite politician linked to an armed faction told The National.
"The first of which is his strong inclination towards Washington, which has shown his willingness to make concessions that could harm the interests of his allies who initially supported him, and that is worrying us," he said.
One of the most important conditions for his nomination in 2022 was not to build a party base and to enter the elections and "this in itself was a challenge to the partners," he added.
The main red line for the Co-ordination Framework was that Mr Al Sudani crossed his ambition to evolve beyond the assigned role of a "general manager", said Inna Rudolf, a research fellow at the Centre for Statecraft and National Security, referring to a term used by Mr Al Khazali of the Sadiqoun Bloc in 2022.
"His gradual push for a more independent foreign policy, coupled with his self-promotion as the guardian of Iraq's stability amid a highly volatile geopolitical conflict, has alarmed established veterans from the Shia powerhouse, like Mr Al Maliki," MS Rudolf told The National.
"They started feeling more threatened by Mr Al Sudani's comparatively higher credibility on the street, which has been gaining traction since the municipal elections."
Ms Rudolf said despite the challenges that Mr Al Sudani faces "he is perceived as a relatively healthier choice" especially for those who want to keep Iraq out of regional escalation with Israel and to maintain balanced ties with Iran and US.
Backing of other parties
The final decision for the post will also need the backing of the dominant Kurdish and Sunni blocs.
From the Sunni blocs, former parliamentary speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi came first in the Sunni community and landed more than 71,000 votes, making him the third-largest vote-winner nationwide.
A political adviser for Taqadum, Jader Al Jaberi, told The National that several candidates are running for the role but he also believed the incumbent's odds are long. "So far, Mr Al Sudani's chances remain low because there is a strong campaign from Nouri Al Maliki to gain the position, but the final decision depends on the Co-ordination Framework," said Mr Al Jaberi, former MP.
Nine to 10 candidates are running for the post under the Framework, with nominations continuing. "Names are floating around but nothing is solid," Mr Al Jaberi said. "Mr Al Sudani is now part of the Framework and will adhere to its instructions and requirements, but the final decision remains unknown."
The Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) gained more than one million votes and secured 27 seats. Talks between officials from the Co-ordination Framework and Mr Barzani, KDP leader, are under way.
An official from the KDP told The National the party does not oppose Mr Al Sudani’s run for office. “We have no veto over any individual. We have been very clear with all parties: our sole criterion for supporting any candidate is their commitment to implementing the constitution in its entirety – from A to Z,” said the official.
“The constitution cannot be treated like a restaurant menu, where some articles are selected and others are ignored or placed aside. It must be applied fully, fairly, and consistently."
With more prominent political leaders winning in the elections, from Shiites and Sunnis, the Co-ordination Framework is also looking into the possibility of reactivating vice president positions, the Shiite politician said.
These were abolished in 2015 as part of a reform package to reduce expenses but were reinstated by the Federal Court the following year. However, they have remained vacant since.
