Iraq’s sixth national election since the toppling of Saddam Hussein closed with a flourish – an unexpectedly high turnout of 56.11 per cent despite calls for a boycott – but few Iraqis believe the coming weeks will bring swift answers.
The alliance of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani surged ahead in eight provinces out of 18, making him the clear winner nationwide with more than 1.3 million out of nearly 12 million votes cast, according to the preliminary results released by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) on Wednesday.
No single contender cleared the finish line with a majority in the 329-seat parliament, leaving the country on the brink of another marathon of coalition-making and political wrangling to form a new government, which could take months.
“We’ve done our share, now let’s see if they’ll do theirs,” Hazim Khalil, a taxi driver in Baghdad, told The National. “They begged us to cast our ballots and we did," Mr Khalil, 42, added. "Now they have to honour their promises by quickly forming a new government and sparing no efforts to improve our lives.”
Many Iraqis spoke of Tuesday's election with a mix of pride and doubt – pride at having defied the calls for a boycott and doubt that their votes would reshape a political system seen as rigged to favour the powerful. “An election is the main pillar of democracy, so it must not be ignored regardless of how this political elite play around its results,” said Najla Mohammed, 21, an art college student.
“Yes, elections alone are not enough to change the political map in Iraq today, but they will definitely do so in the future,” Ms Mohammed said. “I don’t think that there will be any significant change for the coming four years with the same faces in power," she added, expressing a view shared by many ordinary Iraqis and observers.
Given the strong showing by his Reconstruction and Development Coalition, Mr Al Sudani is widely viewed as the frontrunner to be prime minister, but internal rivalries within Iraq's Shiite camp and possible disputes with Kurdish and Sunni partners could complicate his path.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by the prominent Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, came second with about 1.1 million votes, followed by the Taqadum coalition of the influential Sunni politician and former parliament speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi, with nearly 950,000 votes.
There had been widespread fear that few Iraqis would show up to vote following weeks of calls for a boycott, mainly from the political movement of powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, whose candidates won the most seats in the 2021 election. He ordered them to vacate their seats after failing to form the government, and withdrew from politics last year.
Tehran-allied political parties and armed factions benefitted from Mr Al Sadr's boycott. Top among them was the former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, the National State Forces Alliance led by Shiite cleric Ammar Al Hakim, the Badr List led by senior politician Hadi Al Amiri, and Al Sadiqoun List, which is linked to an armed faction led by Shiite cleric Qais Al Khazali.
The US President's special envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, congratulated Iraq on the “successful completion” of the elections, describing the vote as a “crucial step towards strengthening democracy and stability” in the country.
In an official letter, Mr Savaya emphasised that the US “remains firmly committed to supporting Iraq's sovereignty, reform efforts and endeavours to end external interference and armed militias”.
He reiterated Washington’s intention to work closely with Iraq’s next government to “deepen our strategic partnership in security, energy, and development, and to help build a stable and prosperous future for all Iraqis”.
IHEC said on Thursday that it had received 44 complaints relating to early voting for security forces and displaced families, which took place on Sunday, and 57 regarding the main balloting on Tuesday. No details were given on these complaints.
The final results are expected later this month and will be sent to the Supreme Federal Court for endorsement. The new parliament’s first task will be to nominate a speaker and then a president, who will in turn ask the largest bloc in parliament to form an administration.
An unofficial agreement among Iraq’s political parties reserves the post of president for a member of the Kurdish community, while the prime minister is a Shiite and the speaker a Sunni. Other government posts are also divided among the political parties based on religious and ethnic backgrounds.
