The mood in Baghdad’s eastern suburb of Sadr City is one of silence; no election campaign posters, no banners fluttering in the breeze, and no glossy images of grinning candidates.
The absence of the usual campaign fervour is deliberate. The influential leader of the Sadrist Movement, Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, is boycotting the elections. Mr Al Sadr's perception is that the political elite and government have failed to rein in Iran-backed militias, to extract Iran’s influence, to fight corruption or to introduce reforms.
“We are boycotters,” reads one of the numerous banners in the stronghold of the Sadrist Movement with the picture of Mr Al Sadr, pointing his finger.
“We will not take part in a play whose ending is known, and the audience is always the loser,” the glossy banner, hung on a lamp-post, adds.
Iraq is preparing for parliamentary elections on November 11, the sixth since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein's regime. These elections are expected to be highly competitive among major religious and ethnic groups.
However, many Iraqis are boycotting the vote, citing disappointment with the political elite which has been in place since 2003, frustration over bad quality of life and profound scepticism about the electoral process.
Mr Al Sadr announced a total withdrawal from the political process when he failed to form a majority government with only Sunni and Kurdish parties, after winning 73 of the 329 seats in parliament in the 2021 polls. He tried to sideline his Shiite rivals from Iran-backed political parties and militias.
“We follow the orders of our leader Sayyid Moqtada Al Sadr,” Raheem Mohammed, a junk metal dealer in Sadr City, told The National, using the honorific title for a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed.
“Each vote will strengthen the corrupt political parties and militias. This system has failed and Sayyid Moqtada has offered them a road map to follow that can salvage the country but they refused,” Mr Mohammed added.
Other forces have echoed Mr Al Sadr’s position regarding the elections.
In July, former prime minister Haider Al Abadi's Victory Coalition said it would not field any candidates in the election, citing concerns over political spending, the use of state resources to influence voters and a lack of legal safeguards against fraud.
It said the election “is based on political money and lacking firm enforcement of legal regulations to prevent manipulation, vote-buying, misuse of public and foreign funds and the exploitation of state resources”.
It added that there was an “urgent need to reform the electoral process, as it is the pillar of democracy and the key to increasing voter participation and enabling the election of the most competent candidates away from any illegitimate or unethical influences that could harm the integrity of the results”.
Several independent politicians and ordinary Iraqis are also boycotting.
“Faith in democracy is fading fast,” Omar Ghalib, a 22-year-old student at the University of Technology, told The National. “Not voting has become a form of protest for many Iraqis, I refuse to give them legitimacy with my vote,” Mr Ghalib said.
The boycott, mainly by the Sadrist Movement, which enjoys wide popular support of millions of followers in Iraq’s Shiite areas, has sparked concerns among officials of unprecedented low turnout.
“We are expecting the turnout to be lower than previous elections if the boycott supporters remain steadfast in their decision to abstain,” a senior official with the Independent High Electoral Commission told The National, asking for anonymity.
Turnout in Iraq's 2021 parliamentary election reached 43 per cent, according to IHEC, lower than that in the last election in 2018, which was 44.5 per cent. More than 9.6 million people cast their ballots in 2021, IHEC said.
Race to parliament
A total of 7,768 candidates – 2,248 women and 5,520 men – are competing for 329 parliament seats, according to IHEC.
Among those in the race to the parliament are: Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani who leads The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and cleric Amman Al Hakim’s The National State Force Alliance.
Iran-backed armed factions are also seeking political clout after coming under unprecedented pressure since the start of the war on Gaza and the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June. They are either standing in the elections alone or within coalitions.
Sunnis are divided into three major blocs: Takadum Coalition led by former parliament speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi, Siyada Coalition led by Sunni tycoon Khamis Al Khanjar, and Azem Alliance led by Sunni politician Muthana Al Samarraie.
The two main Kurdish parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan – continue to be the main forces and are followed by the opposition group New Generation Movement, as well as other parties.
In an effort to secure the votes of Shiites, several figures linked to Mr Al Sadr’s rivals claimed in recent weeks that Shiite spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani called on voters to participate. They encouraged people to cast their ballots, saying it is a religious duty, and abstaining from it constitutes a religious sin. The statements prompted Mr Al Sistani’s office to issue a denial.
Last week, he settled the debate in a brief response to a question from one of his followers regarding participation in the elections.
“The general answer regarding participation in the elections is as follows: according to the citizen's conviction,” his office said. “If they find that participation is more in the interest of Iraq, then they should participate by electing the honest and trustworthy candidate,” it added.
Previous calls by Mr Al Sistani, one of the main religious authorities in the country, have encouraged Iraqis to cast their ballot.
Five-year plan
In the midst of this heated debate, Muhi Ansari, who chairs the youth-led Iraqi Home Movement, views both participating and boycotting the elections as democratic choices.
“The boycotter wants to strip the ruling system of its legitimacy, especially the system of corruption and Iran-linked militias,” Mr Ansari told The National.
“While the one who participates believes that he can achieve change, so we support both,” he said.
The Iraqi Home Movement is one of several political groups that emerged from the pro-reform, anti-political elite protests that swept through central and southern Iraq in October 2019.
When the movement was established in February 2021, they decided not to enter in the elections and wait for five years until the next one. Mr Ansari believes politics in Iraq has been “distorted” after 2003, turning into “sectarian and economic fronts that prioritise foreign allegiance or self-interests”.
So, they decided to focus on building their “identity and establishing a party core”, he added.
The liberal movement stands out in the political arena as an opposition group. They hold different activities that mainly advocate for democracy and meet community leaders and international community representatives in Iraq.
“We discovered that there is a young generation similar to us everywhere,” he said, adding that the movement has representative offices in five provinces besides Baghdad.
“I believe that we have succeeded in building an identity for the Iraqi rebellion, an identity for liberalism, and an identity for democracy, and we also succeeded in imposing them on the authorities,” he said.
Although they have not decided yet to take part in elections that follow the one this month, he sees “big opportunity for the Iraqi Home Movement and a new generation because of the accumulated political experience”.
