Talks on de-escalating the aerial war between Israel and Iran could begin in days, observers said on Sunday, citing channels through Oman and widespread desire for containment, especially by Tehran, which faces a threat to its oil production.
No one, however, is ruling out miscalculations that could widen the war, especially after Israeli attacks wiped out a significant part of Iran’s top military echelon, and given the presences of hardline figures on both sides who might push for a maximalist posture. Israel appears to have widened its publicly declared goals from degrading the nuclear programme to destroying Iran’s missile capabilities. Iran, meanwhile, has not used its proxy capabilities, which relies on ideological militias to wage war on its behalf.
”I would not be surprised if the Omanis receive a call soon from Tehran that they are willing to return to the negotiating table,” Saud Al Sharafat, a prominent Jordanian security specialist, told The National.
Shiite Iran is among the world’s top 10 oil producers. The hostilities have already affected the global energy markets, raising concern that other producers in the region might become involved in the war if Iran attacks US or other targets in the Middle East, directly or through a network of proxies.
“The Israelis have gone after the head of the octopus. And this time talks will not be just about Iran’s nuclear programme," said Mr Al Sharafat, a former brigadier general in Jordanian intelligence. He expected any peace negotiations to be broadened to include Iran’s role in the region and its use of proxies, rather than just its nuclear programme and other armaments. Israel, the US and most of its Arab allies have long accused Tehran of using militia allies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, to destabilise the mostly Sunni Middle East.
Mr Al Sharafat, however, cited Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “supreme pragmatist”. He has been Iran's supreme leader since he succeeded his hardline mentor Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini in 1989. Mr Khamenei was president when Khomeini accepted a deal 37 years ago to end the Iraq-Iran war, despite likening the move to swallowing poison.
“More than the loss of lives, what Khamenei is concerned about is internal destabilisation if Israel destroys the Iranian oil industry. This is what will drive Khamenei to the table," said Mr Al Sharafat, who heads the Shorufat ِCentre for the Study of Globalisation and Terrorism think tank.
As for Israel, Mr Al Sharafat said that it “does not care if Iran’s theocracy remains intact” as long as Mr Khamenei stops acting against Israel.
US President Donald Trump said early on Saturday that Washington “can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel” in an apparent suggestion of expanding the talks with Iran that he initiated in April, with Omani mediation.
In later post on the TruthSocial platform, he declared, “We will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place."
Israel's attacks on nuclear facilities, fuel depots and other targets have caused the most damage to Iran since its 1980-1988 war with Iraq. The attacks started on Friday as Mr Trump's push to reach a deal over on Iran’s nuclear programme stalled. Iran has been retaliating with barrages of drones and missiles that have caused death and destruction in Israel but on much a smaller scale.
An Arab diplomat said that despite Tehran’s inability to repel Israel's attacks, its ability to sustain an extended war should not be underestimated.
“The Iranians have been preparing for such a moment for decades. But they know that if they lose oil production, it will be the beginning of the end of the regime.”
Israel's most recent attacks, on Iranian fuel depots, were a warning that upstream production could be next, he said. “We are looking at two more weeks [of war] before Iran is forced back to the table”.
The diplomat cautioned that the “pride factor” could make Tehran turn down offers of mediation. “The damage they are doing to Israel, however small in relative terms, is important to save face. They see humiliation not just an affront to their [Shiite] ideology but also to themselves as Persian," he said.
A Western source who met Iranian officials shortly before the conflict began said that although the regime’s instinct would be to negotiate, its behaviour has become less predictable after Israel's strikes killed its most senior military leaders. “We don’t know how the new ones think, and how much they influence Khamenei."
He said the “rational choice” for Iran is to make a deal, even if it severely curtails its nuclear programme and its regional posture, and “violate it one or two years later, when they are stronger”. However this could achieve Israel‘s immediate goal of preventing Iran's nuclear enrichment and submitting it to a deal with the US that is heavily influenced by Israeli security demands.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that if Israel stops its attacks, Iran will stop, and that Tehran will not give up nuclear accomplishments.
Sources in Cairo said Egypt was in contact with officials from Oman, Iran and the United States in attempt to prevent a broader conflict, and was also working with Britain, France, Germany and Turkey.
They said import-dependent Egypt feared that a broader conflict would have disastrous consequences for its already woeful economy, specifically a steep rise in the price of fuel if Iran makes good on its threat to close off the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Arabian Gulf, through which one-fifth of the world's oil shipments pass.
The sources said Egyptian authorities, for the first time in decades, have encouraged prominent media figures and intellectuals loyal to the government of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to support Iran in their writings as they critcise Israel. "Egypt is keen on ensuring that the conflict does not continue or expand," said one of the sources.
In an indication of other possible negotiations channels, Cyprus announced on Sunday that Iran had asked President Nikos Christodoulides to “convey some message to Israel” and that he would be talking soon with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry later denied this.
Ihsan Al Shammari, head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre in Baghdad, said the expected attempts at de-escalation in the coming one or two weeks will “depend on the levels of the attacks from both sides that could lead one of the warring sides to go for a settlement”.
An Iraqi official said Iran had erred by forgoing a sixth round of talks with the US that was scheduled in Oman on Sunday, undermining chances for any quick resolution of the war with Israel.
“The US is backing Israel in this and wants to further weaken Iran ahead of any new round of talks,” the official said.
Both sides have “crossed red lines and unwritten rules of engagement,” they said. However, Iran’s refusal to attend the planned round of talks in Oman “was a grave mistake” committed against the advice of Iraq.
