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Israel's military estimates that 40,000 armed Palestinian fighters remain in Gaza through a network of tunnels, according to Israeli media reports, despite more than 19 months of war in which the army says it aims to “destroy” Hamas.
The Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz and other outlets reported on Sunday, quoting unidentified military sources, that Palestinian militant groups possess about the same number of fighters as before the conflict began in October 2023.
Hamas is also believed to hold dozens to hundreds of long-range rockets along with hundreds to thousands of short-range rockets and mortars, the sources told Haaretz.
The militant group has not launched many of these in recent months, with the Israeli army believing Hamas is stockpiling the weapons for the future.
According to the reports, the assessment is a stark departure from previous estimates by the Israeli army, which had maintained that Hamas no longer operated as a coherent military force and that only independent squads were carrying out isolated attacks.
Haaretz quoted the army as saying an extensive tunnel network remains operational, particularly in Gaza city, Khan Younis, and central refugee camps. Hamas built an estimated 900km of tunnels in Gaza, but only 25 per cent have been destroyed, according to the army.
The army also said that for every militant killed in Gaza, about three civilians have died, a ratio that has remained roughly constant throughout the war.
The reports said the Israeli army intends to control three-quarters of Gaza's territory within two months. A plan shared with The Times of Israel suggests Palestinians could be relocated to three small zones in the strip.
About 40 per cent of Gaza is occupied, according to Israeli estimates, but the army expects that to rise to 75 per cent within two months. The plan is described as aiming to push Hamas into a state of collapse and force it to negotiate on Israeli terms.
Despite the estimate of 40,000 fighters still operating, the Israeli army said in an official statement that chief of staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir told troops during a visit to Khan Younis on Sunday that “this is not an endless war” and Hamas has lost most of its assets, including its command and control.
“We will deploy every tool at our disposal to bring the hostages home, dismantle Hamas and dismantle its rule,” Lt Gen Zamir was quoted as saying.
In January, US congressional sources briefed on US intelligence told the Reuters news agency that Hamas had recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of the war. Intelligence indicated a similar number of Hamas fighters had been killed in the conflict, the sources said.
Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza in mid-March after a two-month ceasefire and set about seizing large areas of territory. On Sunday, the military said it had struck more than 2,900 targets and killed at least 800 “terror operatives” since the fighting resumed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed a desire to relocate Gazans to other countries. He has insisted that Israel will “destroy” Hamas and rescue hostages still being held in Gaza, achieving “total victory”.
Israel also hopes to take control of aid distribution in the strip, where it blocked humanitarian deliveries for 11 weeks before allowing modest supplies to resume last week.
